Justices To Review DeLay-Led Districting(could we get back those 6 seats?)

[LynneSin]

Damn, if we can get this redistricting overturned now we could go back to the old districts created in 2000 and possibly get 5-6 of the 15 necessary democratic seats to help retake the house

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/12/AR2005121200415.html

Justices To Review DeLay-Led Districting
Texas Plan Has Been Called Discriminatory

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 13, 2005; Page A01

The Supreme Court agreed yesterday to consider the legality of Texas's 2003 congressional redistricting plan, which was engineered by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) and helped cement GOP control of the House.

The court will hear challenges from Democrats and minority groups who say that the mid-decade redistricting unlawfully diluted the strength of minority voters, injected undue partisanship into the congressional map and violated the concept of one person, one vote by drawing district lines with outdated census data.

Justice Department lawyers initially recommended rejecting Texas's plan, saying it would harm black and Hispanic voters, but were overruled by senior Justice officials. A special three-judge panel has upheld the redistricting map in two rulings.

Election law experts said the justices' acceptance of the case suggests that they may be prepared to craft clearer guidelines for politicians to follow when redrawing congressional maps. "It could be that a majority is ready to impose new standards," said Richard L. Hasen, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles who teaches election law.

<<<<more>>>>

[bluestateguy]

1. Even if it was overturned

I'd be cautious about planning Democratic gains. Maybe one or two, but not much more. The old districts were actually already voting strongly Republican for other offices, but the incumbents were protected by the incumbency advantage. Once you get into Congress and get re-elected one or two times, you are most likely there for life, barring a huge scandal (and sometimes even then you are OK). That incumbency advantage is no longer there for the old Democratic districts because those congressmen either retired or were voted out. So even if you force Texas to go back to a map similar to the 2001 redistricting, I suspect Democrats would only pick up one or two seats. But a gain is a gain.

[LynneSin]

2. But, don't you think there would be some anti-Delay sentiment

I mean, take PA-17. This is a district that would be right at home at some of these 'strong republican' districts. Hell PA, controlled by repukes, redistricted this so the democrat would have to run against the republican in a neighboring district in hopes of ousting the democrat.

And it backfired. The people in the district were upset they had to choose and the fact that Gekas was becoming a blowhard lead to a democratic victory for Tim Holden in 2002. Repukes then ran a real loser against Holden in 2004 in hopes of getting back the seat but the loser was Joe Paterno's son (Paterno is the legendary Penn State football coach) - they really knocked that guy down and out.

I think with anti-Delay sentiment we could get more of those seats

[Lexingtonian]

3. quality over quantity, imho

I watched the whole initial redistricting that Frost got in '02 fairly closely. That wasn't really much good stuff either, a lot of saving districts and incumbents which pulled Democrats in the House down and forced the leadership into far more conservative territory. For all the ethical ugliness of the DeLay manouver, we're better off with Ralph Hall gone and the rest of the entrenched East and Central Texas then near-DINOs given defeats and forced to realign with the Party rather than forcing the Party to realign with them.

I think the best outcome would be Democrats recovering perhaps three properly Democratic districts. The overt abuses in the DeLay game were in San Antonio/south Texas, where he forced an illegal district that 'saved' Henry Bonilla in a Democratic-tipping area, and Democratic-trending Dallas swing suburbia, where out of vendetta he carved up Martin Frost's. (Both were straightforward VRA violations says the DoJ memo.) It's less straightforward of a story around Houston, but Democrats getting back one suburban/exurban district out of the net two or three lost there would be fair. 13-14 Democrats in the 32 member delegation is a 41% or 44% split, which is rather exactly where Democrats are at the moment in Texas.

Chad Edwards's Waco-based district is essentially Republican, theirs when he retires or resigns. And Lordy, do they hate him for it. But the joke's on them, I think. Martin Frost would be frontrunner for a Democratic urban district in Dallas. Nick Lampson (also a victim of the DeLay reredistricting) might grab up DeLay's Houston/Galveston suburbia district- it's not even odds yet, but could happen. Who would win a VRA-compatible new districting around San Antonio...maybe it allows Ciro Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar to be at each other's throats in the House rather than at each others' throats in McAllen. Fresh blood would be nice, sure, but I think we can let the geezers nab the districts and they'll be handing them off fairly soon.

[LynneSin]

4. Awesome, that would mean 3 down and only 12 more to find

I think we'll get at least 2-4 pickups in Pennsylvania.

We just need 15!