The Ultimate Iraqi Nightmare....... (NYTimes)

[kentuck]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/17/opinion/17thu1.html

<snip>
The ultimate Iraqi nightmare, which continually seems to be drawing closer, is a violent fracturing of the country in which the Kurdish north and Arab Shiite southeast break away, leaving the west, dominated by Arab Sunnis, an impoverished no man's land and a breeding ground for international terrorism. While this page was completely wrong in our presumption that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, we - and virtually everyone outside the Bush administration - warned about this danger from the beginning. Only loyalists who had bought the fantasy about dancing Iraqis throwing flowers before American tanks dismissed it as unlikely.

The consequences of such a breakup would be endless and awful: civil war, the persecution of minority populations in the new states, an alliance between the Shiites and Iran, and a complete breakdown of American moral and military influence in the Middle East.

No one wants that to happen, but Americans must ask themselves every day whether the troops who are risking their lives in Iraq are doing anything more than postponing the inevitable.

....more

[Connie_Corleone]

1. Postponing the inevitable.

If we hadn't gone there in the first place, there would be no civil war happening.

[maxsolomon]

2. thanks, NYT

for confirming that I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG.

and this: "a complete breakdown of American moral and military influence in the Middle East."

american MORAL influence? the entire populace of the ME, excepting the Israelis, thinks we're self-serving, gas-guzzling liars, and they've thought it for DECADES.

[Don Claybrook]

3. It's nice to see them reaffirm that they were wrong

There's not much to be proud of at the NYT these days, but it still is "the paper of record", and as such, it's good to see them admitting their culpability.

I wonder if they sent Miers to Manhattan to give them an ethics refresher training session.

[Burried News]

4. Four years to find another Saddam Hussein to govern Iwreck.

And we haven't found a big enough bastard yet.

[bvar22]

5. Nobody mentions....

that the Saudis and Syrians ARE Sunni.
I can't help but believe that these two militarily powerful countries would come to the aid of the Iraqi Sunnis when Iraq dissolves into Civil War.

[kentuck]

6. Excellent point, bvar22....

?I did not know that.

[bvar22]

8. Saudi Arabia is the center of Sunni Wahhabism,

which is an extremist(militant) form of Islam.

Pakistan also has a Sunni majority, and the Shias and Sunnis are at each other's throats in Pakistan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3045122.stm

I can't see ANY of these Militarily Powerful countries sitting idly by if the Shias try to exterminate the Sunnis (as the US media says will happen if we withdraw). The Sunnis have the support of the MOST powerful nations in the Middle East. Only the presence of the US has prevented them from overt support of the Iraqi Sunnis who are being portrayed as a threatened minority.


The problem we created in the Middle East is MUCH WORSE than we are being told about. Pakistan, Saudi, and Syria have EXTENSIVE arsenals and standing armies.

I don't know for a fact that they would militarily support their brethren in a Civil War, but I cannot believe that they wouldn't. I have no inside information. This is just my speculation prompted by a distrust of American Media, Politicians, Foreign Policy, and a brief reading of the foreign media.



On Edit: I fully support Immediate Withdrawal. Our continued presence ONLY makes things worse.

[welshTerrier2]

7. no incentive for "political reconciliation" with US troops still there

if the US withdraws, Iraq might very well plunge into an all out civil war ... or it might not ...

with the US still in occupation, there is no incentive for anyone to negotiate ...

the Sunnis fear a US-imposed tyranny where the Shia would have all the power ... the Shia see Americans beating up on the Sunnis and making it easier for their majority to dominate the government ...

and all of this is going on against the backdrop of war and killing ... no real reconstruction is taking place ... unemployment is 60% ... utilities are barely available ... clean water is not available ...

leaving Iraq might not make things better ... one thing's for sure though, staying is definitely making things worse ...