The anatomy of a primary

[absyntheNsugar]

Having worked on both ends (as a reporter and on a campaign) let me give out a simple anatomy of how a primary works.

1st phase (pre-primary):

- Junior reporters who show talent cover this part
- Candidates formulate their image
- Controversial positions are 'field tested'
- Two goals for a candidate: raise money and build your base

During this time, the junior reporters who are younger and often left-leaning provide the bulk of coverage. This is their chance to sell their stories and build their names. As a result, they often cover the more controversial candidates, and focus on idealism.

The candidates know this, and so they stake out more risky positions and speeches to get the coverage. At the same time, however, they have to raise money if they expect to survive - so they are constantly switching back between meeting with 'the people' (the base) and donors.

2nd phase (before NH and IA):

- Mix of junior reporters who are doing well on a series and veterans to replace some junior reporters.
- Candidates refine their image and go with what worked
- No new positions
- Continue to raise money, keep base. Search out undecideds.
- Move to the center (slowly, as not to disenfranchise base)

Junior reporters who are on a 'hot story' stay on assignment. Those who didn't get a good story go back to police blotter back home. Candidates who identified themselves as 'anti-x' stay with that. During this time, a candidate will have his 'stump speech' memorized and will play it like a hit single on a top 40 station. They continue to raise money, but they are now looking for undecideds. During this time, they will move to the center - but not too quickly. Moving too quickly will annoy the die-hards.

3rd phase (post Iowa - we are here):

- All junior reporters have left; Only veterans remain
- Senior reporters are jaded and looking for 'leads that bleed' rather than messages
- Candidates stick with what works, but tone down edgier positions
- All are converging to the center at this point

We are here now. My guess is that on the night the caucus results were tabulated in Iowa, it was only veteran reporters around. Dean made a gross error - he thought he was dealing with the younger reporters who were concentrating on his message rather than older reporters who were looking for a car wreck.

During this time, all of the candidates make a trot to the center. They will tone down their more edgier rhetoric, knowing they might be the candidate that goes against Bush in Nov. At that time, they will need approval from Democrats AND Republicans - so if they are still talking about health care, this might hurt them.

[Skinner]

1. This is very interesting.

Thanks for sharing your perspective. I have worked on statewide campaigns, but never on a presidential, and I've never worked as a reporter. So this is new to me.