The view from New Hampshire - Wes Clark

[DancingBear]

(I spent primary week in NH, working for Clark. During that time, I saw all the "big four" candidates in person, and met and talked with many campaign people from all camps. Here is the first of my impressions of what I saw. Candidates are in alphabetical order - I didn't do Clark first just 'cause I like him :) ).
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As a former President once said - “mistakes were made.”

We wanted third place, and we got third place, but not nearly in the manner we had hoped for. Clark, at least here in NH, couldn’t close the deal. With all that time alone in NH, it should have been easy, but it wasn’t. Cue ‘Ol Blue Eyes – “ridin’ high in April, shot down in May.” That’s life.

I saw Wes four times, in settings from a large rally in Portsmouth to a small country store in Epping (where Mark Shields almost stepped on my foot). The crowds were large - turn away crowds in most cases. The candidate was on message, and the enthusiasm by all parties was almost surreal. It seemed as if all was well. So what happened?

Iowa happened. Clark was set to campaign against Dean, and he got Edwards and Kerry instead. He couldn’t have asked for worse. A rejuvenated Kerry took the vet vote away, as well as the favorite son voters who came back to him (from Clark) once they thought he had viability again. Edwards stripped away the mantle of the south. Both made their cases well, having the political experience to know when to talk, what to say, and when to bend the rules. They left Clark “leaners” with the impression that, even though everyone screams for change, experience means a lot.

Clark campaigned here, once Iowa ended, like the babe in the woods politician that he was. He made verbal gaffes during the week that were easily picked up on by pundits and papers. In the debates, if a question could be answered in 40 seconds, he did so, rather than grab the clock and shake it for another 30 seconds or so like established pols do. He was unable to turn defensive questions around, thinking instead that a sincere answer would suffice. In a nutshell, he got walked on.

He left NH voters without a real reason to vote for him, or at least he was unable to provide that real answer to their satisfaction. By allowing Kerry to frame the “veterans” debate he lost traction with that issue – he was unwilling to do what Kerry did so effectively (the “spontaneous” meeting with the vet in Iowa) until very late in the campaign, and even though he has a somewhat similar tale to tell no one heard it.

It is clear to his supporters, and to Clark himself, that in this case nice guys finish third. It looks as if the message is going to get sharpened in SC and beyond – this will be good news if this is indeed the case. If he is to succeed, he needs to tell everyone why he is the best man, and (most importantly) why the others are not. He has been reluctant to criticize up to this point, but he must do so now. He has too much to offer this country to stay silent.

This week will tell the tale. Victories for him are a must. If they do not come, then the facts must be faced. I look forward to seeing the Wes Clark that I support shine through this week. I can only hope it does.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

1. Very thoughtful and perceptive

:-)

[DancingBear]

2. Kick

:kick:

[BeyondGeography]

3. Great analysis

The Bob Dole-baited "I'm a General," gaffe started the week from hell off for Wes. He definitely cam out of NH more savvy than when he got there. Like you, I hope he puts that hard-earned knowledge to profitable use.

[KittyWampus]

4. Clark Is Definately Learning The Hard Way.

His staff bears some responsibility as well.

[Jerseycoa]

6. I wouldn't mind a new campaign manager nt

[Jerseycoa]

5. Thanks, DancingBear

for the honest assessment. I'd hate to see Clark go negative, but it seems to be what it takes. Maybe it's time to let Chris LeHane off the leash. For anybody who thinks the guy should be fired, don't think they all, with the probable exception of DK, don't have ops people like LeHane. We should make good use of the weapons at hand.

[jumptheshadow]

9. A rare disagreement with you

I dearly want Clark to be our nominee. But there's too much to lose if he goes negative: 1) A position in the next administration, where he could do a lot of good, and, 2) The powerful example of reason and quiet strength he has exhibited in an increasingly irrational nation.

As somebody said, Clark has taken a major hit so the AWOL issue can be brought out front and center in this campaign. Although, personally, the shellacking he has taken makes me furious, ultimately I believe it will benefit the Democratic party. Somebody, somewhere is finally going to do some more investigative work. Hopefully the fruit of their labor will hit the media during the GE campaign.

I find it refreshing that Dancing Bear is able to make an intelligent, honest and reasonable assessment of his candidate. It speaks well of Clark and his supporters.

[DancingBear]

11. I need to clarify myself here

My apologies if I am suggesting negative attacking by Clark. I do think, though, that he will need to show Kerry (especially) in a way that that takes some of the luster of his "I've been working all my life against special interests" mantra. Is bringing up the Kerry Medicare non- vote negative? I really don't know, but I would think that if things like this were at least discusses it would put the front-runner on the defensive. Also, Clark has a Family First tax plan that is getting ZERO coverage. If he can somehow frame a debate with Kerry (and others) as to why they have not offered something concrete like this then that may provide some traction for Wes.

We'll see how it plays tonight - but I do not want to see Clark go negative (i.e. Bush-McCain negative) in ANY way.

[Jerseycoa]

15. I know I am in a minority with this opinion

But I also worked in political action for years. Every campaign has a guy like LeHane and needs several. Bush has hundreds, if not thousands, of them. I was less inclined to make use of this before Iowa and NH. But having seen how negative Kerry and Edwards are willing to go, all the while claiming to be positive, I'm now game. I am not, however, recommending Clark himself (as well as his grassroots supporters) drop his positive image, just that we face the hard reality of what goes on under the radar in politics and adapt our expectations before Wes is crucified.

Dancing Bear's great! :)

[aquanut]

7. His stump speech improved so much in NH

He's wiser, more practiced, and has the cash to take his message to a more receptive region.

Of course the media will still do everything they can to keep him down but what can he possibly do about that?

[aquanut]

13. I should have added that

I think his message, w/r/t "Family Values", should get more traction in the South.

Perhaps a Southern Clark supporter who's heard Clark's stump speech could weigh in on that?

[OKNancy]

17. From Clark's Tulsa "stump speech"

He is getting really good..

Let me finish up by saying this: I respect my opponents in this race. But I think that there is one issue above all others in this primary. And that is: Who is best equipped to beat George Bush. In a closely divided country, I think we need someone from the heartland to win. In a country at war, I think we need someone with the experience and understanding to lead. Someone who's been on the frontlines of battle and international diplomacy. In the face of a ruthlessly political President, I think we need someone who knows what he stands for -- who has put his career on the line for what he believes -- to stand up for Americans.

So, if you are happy with the direction of our country, you should support the politicians who are running it. But if you think we can build a better America, and you want someone who is part of the solution, then I am your candidate. If you want a higher standard of leadership back in Washington, then I am your candidate. If you want a leader committed to the national interests, not the special interests ... to open, honest, and accountable government, then I am your candidate. If you want leadership committed to the next generation, not just the next election, then I am your candidate.

Together, with your support, we're going to take America back -- and move our country forward.

[windansea]

8. very good DB

especially liked the part about the debate...Clark needs to grab the clock more like Edwards was doing...he'll do better tonight

[BootinUp]

10. The analysis is good

But you still have to wonder how much of the damage was simply due to Edwards/Kerry media bounce out of Iowa. I watched every Clark event I could on CSPAN or whatever and he said a lot of good stuff too that got zero coverage by major media. That is because they figure he didn't earn it.

And the so-called gaffes are really minor stuff. Kerry and Edwards both appeared to have viability after Iowa, was there really anything Clark could do to change the outcome for the better? Maybe a miracle at the debate, but they obviously weren't expecting to get all those questions. I expect Clark is preparing to launch a counter attack of his own tonight.

[RandomUser]

12. Thanks, DancingBear

I think you're doing a nice job of presenting all the candidates fairly.

[Justice]

14. Thoughtful Analysis

I appreciate your thoughts, they are very insightful. I thought the same thing at the debate when he finished his answers within the buzzer time - imagine that - following the rules.

I do think there is another layer - the, let's kill Clark layer - from the right and from the left. Kerry coasted, with no one saying - hey, why did this guy dive in the polls in the first place. Edwards had pure positive coverage this last week. Lieberman was built up into a cult hero.

While the let's kill Clark layer is reality, and we have to deal with it -- it was a little too calculated for my taste.

[DancingBear]

16. kick

:kick: