Dean team - take a look at Delegate Set-up - March 2nd will be the key

[cthrumatrix]

I played with the delegate numbers being very skewed towards Kerry, Clark and Edwards based on thier Feb 3 polling number in the upcoming 7 states...

Dean could be 100 delegates behind Kerry by the end of Feb 3rd

After Mich/Wash (where he is fav) and splitting delagates Dean could be less than 70 away from Kerry.


It all sets up for March 2nd..... California, etc..1000 delegates and how much California really likes Kerry vs Dean.

Feb. 3, 2004

States Holding Elections and number of Democratic delegates per state:

Arizona (55 pledged, 9 unpledged)
Delaware (15 pledged, 8 unpledged)
Missouri ( 74 pledged, 13 unpledged)
New Mexico (26 pledged, 11 unpledged)
Oklahoma (40 pledged, 7 unpledged)
South Carolina (45 pledged, 10 unpledged)
North Dakota (14 pledged, 8 uppledged)


March 2, 2004

States Holding Elections and number of Democratic delegates per state:

California (370 pledged, 71 unpledged)
Connecticut (49 pledged, 12 unpledged)
Georgia (86 pledged, 16 unpledged)
Maryland (69 pledged, 29 unpledged)
Massachusetts (93 pledged, 28 unpledged)
Minnesota (72 pledged, 14 unpledged)
New York (236 pledged, 48 unpledged)
Ohio (140 pledged, 19 unpledged)
Rhode Island (21 pledged, 11 unpledged)
Vermont (15 pledged, 7 unpledged)

[cthrumatrix]

1. Dean knows it comes down to delegates and a "fair show" next week

the longer he is in...the more thye see who the Dr. really is...and he goes head to head with Kerry (and Clark)

[theboss]

2. March 2nd is a long time from now

Dean needs to make a very strong showing on the 3rd or he is not going to have any money by March 2.

[cthrumatrix]

3. he is doing what he needs to get to March 2nd....

no candidate can advertise in 12 states...

Dean can get to March 2nd with some slight success next week and holding his own with Mich and Wash...

Then it's a war...

[cthrumatrix]

4. kick