Why didn't Dean shake up his campaign before IA?

[fujiyama]

Why the hell did he wait until after IA AND NH? It makes no sense.

The tracking polls were pretty clear as the Iowa caucuses were approaching. Kerry was starting to gain a lot of traction. Dean should have realized something was wrong when Kerry was tied with Gephardt. That should have worried him. Actually, I would say it was visible SEVERAL WEEKS before, right when Kerry was showing a strong third in Iowa. Instead it was clear, he was way too occupied with Gephardt and they began their idiotic tit for tat ad war.

What is obvious is that Dean became overconfident. He had several HUGE endorsements. It looked like he had it wrapped up. For God's sake, he had AL GORE's endorsement, who for many democrats, is the president in exile.

His poor showing in IA, coupled with a poor speech afterward (I understand what he was trying to do that night and I don't blame him, but for God's sake...), along with the media bombardment (which definetely exagerrated how bad the speech was), really had him switched spots with Kerry almost overnight.

I really feel bad for those who worked for his campaign, that supported it, and contributed to it. These people truly embody grass roots democracy. They are the future of the party and have shown what "people power" really means.

[cthrumatrix]

1. simple.............results and perhaps guidance received

[fujiyama]

2. What results?

True, they saw a lot of money and some high profile endorsements, but it was obvious his support had hit a wall at one point. He peaked around late December at which point polls showed he wasn't really gaining any support.

If Dean was so much under the control of Trippi, Dean is a fool. I myself think Dean is smarter than that.

Conventional wisdom was BS when it came to IA. Gephardt ended up with only 11% of the vote.

The only explanation is overconfidence .

[La_Serpiente]

6. Was it the endorsments?

Maybe Dean was putting too much stock into the Endorsements. As far as I know, he was going across the country getting endorsements by many of the anti-DLC Democrats. What happened to Dean is the same thing that happened to Gore. Bradley was going up in the polls and probably would have beat Gore if he kept on showing up to these places just to get endorsements.

On top of that, he went to Georgia a few days before the Iowa caucuses to spend time with Carter. As a major candidate, I would never do something like that.

[MoonRiver]

3. I wonder who, if not Dean, orchestrated the 'scream' speech

Maybe it was Trippi. :shrug:

[Meldread]

4. I think that's part of the reason...

I think that's part of the reason that he tried to demote Trippi. That there were several red flags that Trippi failed to act on, going all the way back into the Fall. Dean was hoping to do what Kerry did and knock the ball out of the park with Iowa and New Hampshire, but obviously it didn't work that way. He had to re-think his strategy and I believe after he found out about some of the mistakes Trippi made (on the management level), he decided to demote him. I really don't blame him.

I believe it's rumored that Dean said something like: "I had this in the bag? How could you do this to me?"

[DannyRed]

5. Because

noone is a mind-reader or a clairvoyant, noone can see the future.

In December, Dean was on top of the world, if you believed the polls and the "buzz"

Everyone thought Trippi was a genius, that kerry was toast, and that Dean was "inevitable"...

That everyone includes most folks here at DU - Dean supporters, Kerry supporters, and etc.

That everyone probably includes Dean and Trippi and Gore and Bradley and AFSCME and SEIU folks too.

So, live and learn. Adjust, move on, try to recover.

What went right? Keep doing it.

What went wrong? Do something different.

Is it really that hard to figure out?

[patricia92243]

7. He probably didn't realize how bad it was going to be, plus you can't pull

a campaign manager out of a hat.

[MMT]

8. Personal arrogance?

I've read several times that Dean has the sort of arrogance usually associated with surgeons rather than internists. And his infamous episode of "smacking down" the Vermont legislature seems to bear that out. Arrogance is also part of the huge sense of entitlement that most people from over-privileged backgrounds grow up with.

I suspect that he simply couldn't believe that he could do anything wrong.