Elected GOP doesn't want apocalyptic showdown, martyrdom over Alioto.

[Inland]

The movement conservatives want, demand the fight over abortion and gay rights and indeed, the fight over the ability of Congress to pass laws when a schoolmarmish, unelected conservative Supreme Court weighs the need and or wisdom of every statute.

But the elected republican officials don't want the fight, and they will cave.

Because elected republicans don't see anything glorious or sacred in losing, like martyrs or christians who get points with God for struggling with evildoers. They don't enjoy the circle jerk theorizing of the federalist society or the states rights or the libertarians. They backed the right wing social agenda as part of a broader agenda, at most, or only as a tool.

The unelected ideologues gladly throw away the rest of any agenda, for this supreme court nomination is it. This is the right wing, fundie, nutbag, pre-civil war, continental congress loving ideologues' last chance. The LAST chance to make the US a conservative heaven no matter how many americans want something different in the future. Five unelected men to rule us, for generations, striking down liberal laws, confirming rights to buy influence and candidates, no matter how many democrats get elected to congress.

And that last one is the kicker. Elected Republicans don't sit around, not caring how many democrats get elected to congress in the future. Republicans know that they got into power by spending twenty years campaigning against the supreme court when it was making POPULAR decisions. Imagine what happens when it makes UNPOPULAR ones. Imagine law after law sent up to the Scotus and sent back as beyond federal power. Imagine the buses from Alabama to Illinois, only for us to note that the lucky ones lived to make it to the bus. The republicans can imagine it, and the end of the republican ascendancy in the congress and presidency.

The republicans didn't send up stealth candidates because they are strong. They did it because they are weak. Weak, and afraid. They will cave. They would rather be beaten on Alioto than win on the ground that they want a reversal of Roe and all the other legal nutbag wish list.

[PDittie]

1. Recommended and kicked eom

[bowens43]

2. I hope you are right

but I don't think so. I don't think they are going to cave on this. To do so would be a huge loss for them. To use the nuclear option will be a win for them. It will energize their base and bring back those who have drifted away.

[welshTerrier2]

5. bush wanted civil war over this nominee

i agree with you ...

i just wrote this in another thread:

we heard all the noise over the Miers nomination from the extreme right-wingers of bush's party ... and of course, they'll be happy as clams over Alito's nomination ...

but bush has seen a rift building in his own party ... it's not clear how long people like McCain and Specter will stay onboard ... but if bush can provoke an all out war with the Democrats, i think he may be able to hold his coalition together ...

republicans may have been developing a bit of independence from the WH but they will not become so independent that they would side with Democrats in an all out war ... at least that's what i think the calculation was on nominating Alito ...

[marbuc]

6. If they want a civil war

I say bring it on. This will hasten marginalization of the fundie right, and return Dems to power.

[Inland]

24. You point out the dilemma that has the repugs on its horns.

Bush isn't running again. Bush has no choice. But the senate is, does.

Bush first two nominations went with the stealth, the candidate that would allow everyone to pretend that they didn't know he and she would vote the way she did.

That wasn't good enough. The movement conservatives demanded that it be out in the clear.

That means that republicans are going to have to take responsibility for the overturning of Roe and the hamstringing of congress by an activist court.

[AX10]

3. I agree 100%!

The GOP will let the courts make America turn back in time in a cheap attempt to keep the 'dirt' off of their hands. It won't work.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. I wish I could agree, but I heard Oral Hatch on NPR this afternoon

and he sounded like he was drooling over the prospect of a filibuster attempt, so he could respond with the "constitutional option" as he called it to change the rules of the senate and further consolidate their power.

[rateyes]

7. Let them do it...

and let the Dems shut down the senate....

and, when Dems regain control, let them know that payback is hell.

[FreedomAngel82]

9. I agree

And every democrat leaves. They walk out together.

[dogday]

23. Now that is something I would like to see

If our Democratic leaders allow this nomination without putting up the fight of their lives, then they get what they deserve and we better start voting for their opponents.

[Inland]

25. Did Orrin Hatch call for the reversal of Roe v. Wade?

Bet he didn't. Wonder why, in a state that is more conservative socially, more Bushite, more solidly in the anti abortion, anti gay camp than any in the union?

Because he's bluffing. He can't justify the goal that would require getting rid of filibusters. He says that it's so goddamn important, but won't say why, wink wink. He'd like to pretend that it's got something to do with some theoretical construct that nobody understands. He's scared to be held accountable for a court.

These guys are the dog that's finally caught the car it was chasing, doesn't know what to do.

[No Exit]

32. Orrin Hatch???

If he had testicles, he'd be a man!

[FreedomAngel82]

8. I hope so

Hopefully there is enough on this new nominee that he'll cave like Miers too. Bush and the republicans don't care about the issues of Roe V Wade and gay marriage either way. All they care about is making tons of money. If Bush really did care he would've nominated someone for them when he did Roberts in the beginning. I think it's now a lose-lose situation for them. If they do nominate someone and overturn Roe V Wade the democrats will win hands down all the next elections. 60% of the country is for keeping Roe V Wade how it is. Bush wants to please both groups. They have given the fundies in the party way too much power. If Bush pleases them he will lose moderates and non-religious people in the party and if he doesn't he'll lose them. He has to listen to the GOP officials of the party. These people are about party first and the country second (after themselves of course). The religious fanatics want the battle of Roe V Wade and gay marriage but they'll end up losing. They know it'll be political suicide. For years they've been using this excuse and blaming the democrats for keeping them from doing anything with Roe V Wade. Now the jist is up and they control everything and everyone knows it. So what will they do? I think people will leave the party either way.

[ArbustoBuster]

10. A small light of hope. A very small one...

The President, with the assistance of the Senate, can add as many people to the Supreme Court as he or she likes, as long as the resulting number is odd. So five psycho-conservatives can be overriden by an American public that wants to allow the President to pack the court. This has never happened in our history, but it's always an option.

[RaleighNCDUer]

11. When Roosevelt tried it he just about became victim to a coup.

Not exactly a wise move.

[ArbustoBuster]

12. That's why I added the caveat...

...that it had to be backed by the American people.

[Orangepeel]

13. sigh. I hope you are right, but I doubt it

It isn't like the court will overturn Roe the day after the new nominee takes the bench (assuming it is Alito). First, there will be a late term abortion case, then a parental notification case, then a gay marriage case, then an affirmative action case, then, five or six years from now, Roe will be overturned and the fight will move to the states. By that time, Republicans in choice states will have distanced themselves from this appointment.

IMO, the idea that reproductive rights are safe because most people in the country want them is naive. I hope I am wrong, but I believe that 1) they will be able to raise even more money off the abortion rights issue when it goes to a state to state battle and 2) there are a whole long list of "morals" issues that they can take up as wedges.

[splat]

14. Americans don't want to reverse Roe

Bush put up what they wanted, but moderates will oppose tearing the country apart.

Let them hang themselves.

Even GOP women -- including Laura -- want abortion kept legal.

They have wild teenage daughters, too.

Ladies? Start your engines...

[texpatriot2004]

15. Some 60% of America is pro-choice, let families and individuals

decide

[semaphore]

19. Access to contraception is key...

To me, it seems unfortunate that the two "sides" of this issue don't seem to want to come together to support women's education and easy, guaranteed access to safe and effective contraception. I'm not blaming progressives for lack of trying on this. Fundamentalists seem to object to both abortions AND what would ostensibly prevent them, i.e the Pill & emergency contraception. I don't understand that point of view. Perhaps progressives should frame the debate in terms of this lack of logic -- Gee, the Republicans won't let you prevent a pregnancy, then they won't let you have an abortion, but they don't give women support once the baby's here (no Family Medical Leave Act or paid time off like other countries). I think if Democrats were to run on a platform of reducing the number of abortions by means of better education, access to contraception, and paid family leave for women who do have children, the public would support that...and it might confuse the right. Thoughts?

[jaysunb]

26. That would be one approach

education, that is.

As Howard Dean has recently been framing this as an issue of privacy. Take the government and your neighbors out of Americas bedrooms and doctors office.

BTW, welcome to DU :hi:

[newyawker99]

28. Hi semaphore!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DanCa]

16. I hope your right my friend

And thank you for granting me a momements peace tonight. :toast:

[PurpleChez]

17. I had a really tough time following the language of the opening

paragraph. Could someone recap?

[sui generis]

18. they are not that insightful or smart

as a rule - but we can daydream. If they were, their party would be a lot less evil.

[Inland]

22. Oh, come on. This is their business.

Their business is elections. They know exactly whether they are on the fat or thin side of a wedge issue.

They aren't speaking in code because they are on the fat side.

That's the thing about the politics of division...it only helps if you divide the country into a section where you're on the majority side. The majority wants Roe.

[Walt Starr]

20. I disagree, most elected Republicans want the shoiwdown

The elected Republicans who don't are in a severe minority.

[Inland]

21. Which one has come out for reversing Roe v. Wade?

Not the code talk, not something from some talk show. I want the senator who has said he wants Bush to appoint a person to reverse Roe.

I suggest NOT ONE.

Compare the democrats who explicity and expressly defend Roe.

I remember even Bush I would declare himself in favor of criminalizing abortions. But that was long enough ago that there really wasn't any danger of it actually happening.

The danger is now here. The danger is for republicans, being the dogs who have finally caught the goddamn car.

Bring it on. The republicans will work really hard for the third way, where they can vote for Alito and then state they had NO IDEA he would vote to reverse Roe. The more that the dems pile on Alito for being against Roe, the more that the conservatives will demand that their elected officials defend Alito on precisely those grounds.

It's the end of the republican ascendancy.

[aquart]

27. You're right. Go to the mattresses.

If they want to follow the criminal catkiller Frist, let 'em.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[No Exit]

31. Welcome to DU. Tell us about yourself.

Let's see your heroes "crush" the democrats, now that the democrats have the media's and the people's attention.

The repuke side of the congress is led by a creature under serious investigation by the SEC, and by a little bugman troll who is UNDER INDICTMENT on 3 counts. Good luck finding strength in that.:hi:

[No Exit]

30. Their senate leader, Frist, is a sniveling weakling.

And their little tough-guy house leader has been found with his hand in the cookie jar.

Let's take 'em!