new SUSA poll of South Carolina: Dean tied for lead of African-Americans

[WI_DEM]

It is on to South Carolina, and a new SUSA poll of South Carolina, taken prior to yesterdays results in New Hampshire have good news for John Edwards, in a must-win state, and for Howard Dean a tantilizing way he can make a good showing on Feb 3rd in this state.

Overall here are the standings:
Edwards 32%
Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Kerry 13%
Sharpton 10%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 5%

This indicates a real battle for second in SC between Clark, Dean, Kerry, and Sharpton.

Among African-American voters Dean and Edwards lead with 20% (Dean runs 7-points better with African-American voters than white voters--Edwards runs best with white voters garnering 42%.) Sharpton gets 19% of the black vote and Clark 17%.

Since my candidate is Dean I will write about how he can put together a coalition to not necessarily win SC, but make a solid showing. In my view he needs to continue to do what he has done all thru this campaign and talk about race--it seems to be paying off--and campaign in black churches and neighborhoods extensively--this voting bloc makes up more than half of SC primary voters. Bring in surrogates like Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Carol Mosley Braun to help as well.

He also needs to work hard to get out young voters. The SC poll indicates that right now Edwards has a narrow lead over Dean among voters 18-34 27-22 percent (Kerry comes in with 5%).

Dean also is second among self-described Democrats running second to Edwards 30-19 percent (17% for Clark,14% for Kerry)

I feel in a competitive field like SC (Edwards, Kerry, Sharpton, Dean, Clark are all in the thick of things)if Dean can do well with anti-war Democrats, traditional liberals, the young, and African-Americans he can make a good showing in SC.

Time will tell.
http://www.surveyusa.com

If Dean can

[cthrumatrix]

1. now this would be a huge upset if he placed top 3...he might

[WI_DEM]

4. that should be our goal

to come in a solid third--second would be considered a win for Dean.

[Zynx]

2. Dean could finish second.

It is conceivable.

[HFishbine]

3. Deaniacs -- Make a difference in SC

There IS something you can do. Spend an hour each evening between now and Feb. 3 calling SC voters and talking to them about Dean. (If you have $0.05 long distance, that's only $18 for six hours.)

Go here to get started: www.scvolunteersfordean.com

[Adjoran]

5. Dean has a chance in SC, if he spends the time

and money.

SC veterans make up a larger segment than in most states. They are not very receptive to Kerry, although he should get a bounce from his win in NH. Clark made an early impression, but hasn't caught fire either.

Edwards is very strong here. We'll see if the "regional pride" thing the pundits speak about means anything.

Many people perceive Dean as the alternative to Kerry, from conversations I've had with party leaders since Iowa. They say he could surprise prognosticators with a better than expected showing.

[WI_DEM]

7. being a veteran and pow to boot didn't help John McCain

much in SC either against AWOL in '00

[tryanhas]

8. We'll see if the "regional pride" thing the pundits speak about...

...means anything."

Well, it meant EVERYTHING yesterday, and that's why I don't understand pundits and POSTERS ON THIS BOARD, acting like something spectacular happened last night considering the fact that two New Englanders who are to the left of ALL OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES in the most left section of the country finished first and second.

Woooooooooow.

Whatever.

[beyurslf]

6. Looks like SC could be wide open by next week.

Should be interesting...

[tryanhas]

10. I doubt it

SERIOUSLY.

[jpgray]

9. I hope this puts paid to the "only whities like Dean" business

Haven't seen it around lately, but it was and is silly.