Our history is one of war

[McKenzie]

either covert, as in the "Cold War", or overt in the form of direct military intervention. In every case the rationale has been one of grabbing whatever is on offer. Trace the history of conflict and it's difficult to find any war that has not been predicated on dominating others for resources.

Those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer; they include the obvious Holy Grail of oil but water will be another resource that starts to dry up (sorry) in the years ahead. In order to continue living the way we do those with the power to grab what's left are doing just that. Even if the current mess in Iraq gets sorted there is still the big issue of a burgeoning Chinese economy with the corollary of increased demand on dwindling resources. That will not be handled through negotiation and trade. Big powers have big militaries for that very reason...it's nothing to do with keeping the peace, it's everything to do with jockeying for position in an aggressive world.

I think we have painted ourselves into a corner and we ain't going to get out of it without major changes in how we live. I hope I'm wrong and I invite constructive comment. Nevertheless, I think we need a quantum shift in our thinking or we are all going down the plughole.

<edit> spelling - agen

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. This weekend Vernor Vinge (A top Sci Fi writer

and trained mathematician) gave us a fifty - fifty chance, and as he said, on a good day

[McKenzie]

3. that's the analysis we need to do

unfortunately, it might mean challenging some of our most cherished beliefs (sic) such as the myth that economic growth can continue indefinitely in a world of finite energy resources. It can't - anyone who wants to see why should read up on thermodynamics. Our belief in constant economic growth, as we currently promote it, is little more than an article of faith.

But that's a bitter pill to swallow - human nature tends to avoid facing unpleasant facts.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Got worst than that

during one of the panels I am not kidding you, I was the only one who seemed to know about Peak oil... not too pleased but proceeded to do some education. Granted, thoswe were NOT the big names, but still... disconcerting how much our media is NOT telling regular people

Now we were also talking on another one about technology and how for the most part we fail to do the first order, second order and third order predictions adn just run with the technology

They used cars, i will use the Manmhattan project

We failed to predict the Ruskies would get it as fast as they did

We faield to predict our Nato Allies woudl get it as soon as tehy did

And we still have our head in that damn sand about who else may or actually has it.

Oh and it got a tad funny when the star treck fan finally realized that Rodenberry might be a tad, shall we say off?

[McKenzie]

7. nadinbrzezinski...once Peak Oil goes mainstream

get ready for massive panic. I keep banging on and on about PO. It is going to be one-big-shock when people finally realise what it really means. You know this but to anyone contemplating buying a big, shiny gas guzzler...I'd advise against it.

cheers...gotta go make a mushroom and tomato omlette for breakfast.

[Nederland]

11. Fossil Fuel Economy is dead

that's true. However, I see nothing in the laws of thermodynamics the prevents virtually unlimited economic growth. In fact, I would argue the complete opposite.

[greyl]

2. Could you please define "Our history"?

Are you speaking of "the 10,000 year history of our civilization", or the 200 year old apple pie one.

As an offering of hope, remember that we don't need to change humanity to save the world.

We only need to change one culture.

[McKenzie]

4. sorry, I should have been more precise

I would start with industrial society because it is that development that saw the use of resources in earnest, particularly fossil fuels. Consider that we have gobbled up around half of the oil in the 200 years or so that industrial society has existed for a start.

I'm not sure about the hope. I'm a tad pessimistic but, equally, I don't have the ability to predict how things will turn out. Nevertheless, the omens are not good.

Thanks for replying and apologies once again for the lack of precision in my earlier post. And, I agree...we need to change one culture...the one we live in!

[greyl]

6. Don't feel sorry, you aren't at fault.

I just wanted to know more.
I think we can agree on the concept that "our culture" is a young experiment when judged by 3 million year old human standards.

We don't need to change DNA, we need to change ABC. ;)

[McKenzie]

8. places like DU might be part of the change

a forum where we can debate what really matters.

regards

[greyl]

9. You sound hopeful.

Unlike in the very recent past: "I'm not sure about the hope. I'm a tad pessimistic but, equally, I don't have the ability to predict how things will turn out. Nevertheless, the omens are not good."

Good.

[cassiepriam]

10. There will be big changes in the next 20 yrs. No doubt about it.

Socially, politically, financially. Life as we know it is going bye bye.