December 1991 Gallup Poll

[TexasSissy]

I picked up the following poll info from another forum. I don't have a source cite yet but am hoping to get one.

December 1991

> Mario Cuomo - 33%
> Jerry Brown - 15%
> Douglas Wilder - 9%
> Bob Kerrey - 8%
> Tom Harkin - 7%
> Bill Clinton - 6%
> Paul Tsongas - 4%
> Undecided/Others - 18%

Tsongas won the NH primary. I don't recall who won Iowa (it wasn't Clinton; he lost both).

I didn't recall that Cuomo ran in the primary. I thought he considered it then decided against it. He must have dropped out by the time my state's primary came around.

[CMT]

1. Cuomo didn't run

This is a poll similar to the type which includes Hillary Clinton with the announced candidates--just for media hype.

Harkin won Iowa because it is his home state and no one else decided to contest it.

[HFishbine]

9. Word

This is absolutley correct. Understand CMT's post before drawing any conclusions.

[goobergunch]

22. ***LOGIC ALERT***

Warning: Post #1 Contains Logic!

:thumbsup:

[Clark4Prez]

2. Harkin Won Iowa

Clinton pulled less than 3%. If the conventional wisdom that I see here on DU prevailed in '91, gosh if we want to beat Bush we all need to get behind Cuomo, Clinton doesn't have a prayer of winning.

In fact, as memory serves, I had an arguement like that with my brother. Who said something to the effect that Clinton was too far behind in the polls, not enough money, support, or background to be president. oh well, so much for conventional wisdom.

[virtualobserver]

3. But Clinton did have the money and the organization

and he was a southerner.

If Cuomo had run, it would have been a much different race, but Clinton would have won anyway.

[TexasSissy]

17. LOL, LOL. Wonder if we can talk Cuomo into it.

[worldgonekrazy]

19. Would it have been so bad to have gotten behind Cuomo?

I mean, other than the fact that he wasn't ACTUALLY running for the nomination?

I, for one, would have vastly preferred Cuomo to Clinton. Nobody in national politics today (since the death of Wellstone) has more integrity, IMO.

[TLM]

25. Yeah but for that to be true now... the frontrunner would need to drop out

THe top guy in that poll did not run... he dropped out. So that would mean that if Dean dropped out, someone polling badly now like Clark would have a good shot.

But Dean would have to drop out.

[Gman]

4. Knowing stuff like this is what makes me laugh

at Dean supporters that have all but declared victory.

[9119495]

5. Actually Dean would be cast in the role of Clinton

At the start of the race, Dean was labled as "a governor from a small and unimportant state" and "a guy no one has ever heard of." But his vision for America and his ability to really mobilize the party have made the difference. Furthermore, it was believed that Clinton as the nominee would be soundly defeated by a very popular sitting President Bush--just as most of the people on this board believe Dean will be trounced by gwb.

So no its not over, but the idea that Dean is sure to lose is as stupid as believing Clinton was to be inevitably defeated.

[Josh]

7. Perhaps - but Dean's numbers were at this range a year ago -

Clinton had Dean's earliest numbers just two months before the primaries began.

[sandnsea]

8. Cuomo,Brown - liberal governors

Just like Dean. He put himself there.

Most like Clinton? John Edwards.

[HFishbine]

14. Just to be clear

Dean is liberal?

[sandnsea]

23. The Democratic Wing - wink, wink

He put himself there to appeal to the liberal base. He continues to put himself there with wild statements about Bush knowing about 9/11 and Clinton being from the Republican wing of the Democratic party. It's all perception, isn't that right?

[_Jumper_]

24. When did Dean say that Clinton was from the GOP wing of the party?

?

[HFishbine]

27. Okay. Wink, wink.

So you're saying, he's not really liberal.

[burning bush]

30. Dean said "Democratic Wing" of the party, not "Liberal Wing"

Just because you interpret Dean's words one way does not mean Dean would agree with you.

Any other ideas about what Dean could have meant?

[beyurslf]

29. But the leader in that poll didn't run. n/t

[Killarney]

6. I'd love to see the Clinton vs Bush Sr numbers from the same time.

[HFishbine]

11. Will you accpect a lazy answer?

I don't feel like scouting around for a link, but I think I remember that there was a huge gap, something like 63% vs 37%.

[Killarney]

12. Of course! I had a feeling it would be around there somewhere. Thanks.

[Sean Reynolds]

16. Oddly, about the same as the Dean-Bush polls.....

[worldgonekrazy]

20. Hell if you listened to some on this board

The Dems wouldn't have even tried to win in '92 because there was just no way no how that Bush was going to be defeated.

[Rose Siding]

10. Had Clinton gone *down* to 6%?

Was he ever much higher and then fell off? Are there comparitives? I've wondered about that before.

There are candidates in this year's race that were much higher and then fell steadily over time.

[TexasSissy]

18. No, Clinton's numbers were "up" to 6%. They had been below 5%,

according to a recent quote by Hillary Clinton. And I've seen some numbers previously that his national polling percentage near end of '91 was around 4% or 2% or something.

[SheilaT]

13. The other very important

thing to remember is that this election cycle has gotten started at least six months earlier than the last one. Maybe even earlier. That's a huge difference. Poll results from last April or May would probably be comparable to December '91.

The other issue is fundraising. Dean has, to put it mildly, out raised everyone else combined and almost entirely from small donations. He hopes to match Bush's money and I think he can do it.

[TexasPatriot]

15. lol

thanks for the reminder :)

i was one of those 'Brown Supporters' (applying Skinners rules retroactively) along with Joe Trippi. Funny, at the time everyone hailed the use of the 1-800 number as revolutionary - a way to engage the little guy and bring them back to the democratic party. It all sounds vaguely familiar.

[no name no slogan]

21. Yeah, I remember that too

as an ex-precinct organizer for Dukakis in 1988, I deliberately sat out the 1992 primary season. I had graduated from college in June 1991 and was struggling to find employment during the First Bush Recession. But I do remember, quite clearly, that Brown was using the 1-800 number, and was putting it out there whenever he could.

Brown was my early favorite, and I was sad to see he didn't get the nod, especially considering the rightward slide this party has undergone since 1992.

But I agree with the vaguely familiar bit. And as I've also been saying, this thing is far from over.

[Bucky]

26. ha! "skinner's rule retroactively". I get it

You got moxy, kid.

[West Coast Democrat]

28. Well, I get your point

but Gallup polls are rarely accurate