I believe Bush won't be impeached

[Bucky]

Having read all the arguments, I just gotta say I'm not convinced it can happen. I'm not saying it shouldn't happen, just that it won't. Sure Bush is slipping a bit among his base--38% overall support for job performance. When partisan opinions in this country were generally conceded to have a 40% floor and a 60% ceiling (barring unusual events like 9/11, Oklahoma City, toppling the Talibani), Mr Bush has managed to drop down to just a hair under 40% in his latest polls. That is, of course, within the margin of error of still reachng 40% support.

But it takes more than 40% national support for the Senate to sustain an impeachment charge from the House. And you've got to look at who those 38% are. Or even who those 12% are who used to think he used to be doing a good job. Just because they see him screwing up at the moment doesn't mean they'll support removing him from office. But let's quit pretending public opinion is evenly represented in Congress for a second.

The 38% who think he's doing a good job also include super rich powerful people who don't want to see their boy and their party discredited. They man not think much of his managerial style, but he's sure delivering the goods where public contracts are concerned. He gives them the money and they give a fraction of it back to the Republicans to keep getting reelected.

If a serious impeachment movement got started among the Democrats--where it would have to start--how long would it be before the serious money boys started twisting arms among moderate, swing district Democrats to back away from this? Bush will be gone from DC in three short ineffectual years anyway. But ambitious congressmen and congresswomen know they're going to have to get along with these corporations and their well greased lobbyists for some time to come. It's certainly in the best interests of their careers to let Bush be impotant and let the country drift leaderless for a short spell rather than risk getting Cheney in with an opportunity for a "fresh start".

As bad as Bush is, he'd still need to be a LOT worse before you could gat a concensus going that he needs to be removed.

[are_we_united_yet]

1. Just curious:

What were the numbers like when Clinton was impeached?

Seriously, I don't remember do you?

:shrug:

[mourningdove92]

2. I believe they were in the 50's.

But he got a blowjob. You know, that is much more dangerous to national security than a hurricane and a flood and a miserable response to a disaster..oh yeah, and an illegal war.

[are_we_united_yet]

3. LOL!

Yes the irony of it all!

:)

[PSPS]

8. It's irrelevant

The Republicans controlled the house when Clinton was impeached. They control the house today. That's why there won't be an impeachment. The current Republican party is nothing more than a criminal enterprise.

Look, these crooks know that the only thing between them and the hangman's noose is their being in power. That's why they will do absolutely anything, without exception, to maintain their current position. The "elections" will be crooked, the media will continue to prop them up with their potemkin polls and "journalists" "on the pad." And, if that looks shaky, they won't think twice about faking another "terrorist attack" in the US so they can do away with our form of government altogether. In fact, they've already said so. Two years ago, Gen. Tommy Franks said that if the United States were to be attacked again, the Constitution would likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government. (See http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/11/20/185048.shtml)

[Cosmocat]

11. Right ...

It just isn't going to happen ...

I mean, Conyers DID try to get hearing going on the Plame incident, and they didn't even let him have a hearing AND made him have the whatever they had to call it OUTSIDE of the house AND to punish him and everyone else who took part in it put record number of roll calls while they were in the meeting ...

How many hearings were there on the Clinton admin ... Over 20 ... How many on this admin ... None ...

You could dig up footage of this clown buck naked in bed with UBL and this congress would shield him while squeeling about "partisan" politics ...

The only way a hearing gets off the ground is IF the Ds can get back into power next fall ... THEN, it will be stonewalled long enough to get this rube through his term ...

[TankLV]

4. Repuke total control of both houses.

Unless that changes, AND the repukes don't convice the Dems to "not go there" or "put the country thru this" bullshit, I don't see it happening either.

It's all in the numbers.

Bunkerboy could rape little boys on live TV and the repukes still woulndn't impeach. That's a sad fact.

[Bucky]

5. A hair above 50% when impeached; About 62% when acquitted

But don't make the mistake of thinking that the same rules apply to them and us. The powerhouses who want Bush in wanted Clinton out. It is only the machinery of the Constitution that kept it all from happening.

There's also huge differences in how Dems and Reps approach governance. Democrats are culturally attached to the idea of cooperation, splitting the difference, and finding concensus. Republicans are of the mindset that you fight and compete and struggle constantly in an adversarial process to win. That's why it looks to us like they put their party's interest ahead of their country's. Many genuinely believe it's just a matter of playing the game as hard as you can and always playing to win.

Democrats are interested in formulating policy. It's not even the same game.

Thus Republicans feel fully justified in taking it to the wall everytime. They don't need a concensus before they move for impeachment, they just need to get their hands on the ball for a second so they can take a run at the basket. That's not a better strategy than the Dems--I'd argue if anything it's objectively less effective than the cooperative model most Dems use. But it's more aggressive and more spectacular. We're playing the tortoise against their hare. They're playing Knut Rockne, All American against Jabba the Hut.

[are_we_united_yet]

6. Agreed.

The rules are certainly different for Dems. No illusion that any of this is fair. I just wanted the numbers for comparison.

Thanks.

[RandomUser]

15. Two different sets of numbers

1) the numbers representing public approval ratings
2) the numbers representing which party controls seats and chambers of congress, by how much of a margin, and whether they rubberstamp for the president.

The second set is the only one that matters right now. And that's why Bush won't be impeached. If you want impeachment, we need to win back the House in '06.

[Angry Girl]

7. Impeachment will do NOTHING!

Bush is nothing but a puppet. Cheney, Rove and some other twisted neocon f*cks run the show!

Besides, look at the all the sh*ts who would take Bush's place:

* The Vice President Richard Cheney
* Speaker of the House John Dennis Hastert
* President pro tempore of the Senate Ted Stevens
* Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
* Secretary of the Treasury John Snow
* Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld
* Attorney General Alberto Gonzales
* Secretary of the Interior Gale A. Norton
* Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns
* Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez
* Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao
* Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt
* Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Alphonso Jackson
* Secretary of Transportation Norman Yoshio Mineta
* Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman
* Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings
* Secretary of Veterans Affairs Jim Nicholson
* Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff

Nightweed's Hurricane Katrina Aid Organizations

[are_we_united_yet]

10. Actually you're

probably right on two fronts.

Even if impeached, that is only the indictment as I understand it. They still need to be removed from office by the Senate.

[nookiemonster]

12. Scary.

The line of sucession is stacked against us.

Damn, what I would give to see a constitutional amendment allowing a confidence vote. Something, if needed, that could take down each one systematically by virtue of popular opinion.

[tritsofme]

18. I'm glad the GOP couldn't hold a confidence vote in 1994

Because it likely would have toppled Clinton's government.

Our Founding Fathers were a pretty smart group of guys IMHO.

[wake.up.america]

9. In others words it will take something much serious than invading...

Iraq for no reason with 2000 dead GIs or failing miserably in New Orleans. Let us get real. It has to be something catastrophic. Let us try to nail him having an affair with Karen Hughes, then lying about it.

[calimary]

13. Okay, my brothers and sisters... just consider one thing:

This is evidently from the Mississippi MD who told cheney to go fuck himself - and then posted here on DU. His profile contains the following quote:


"The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing."-Einstein

Here's his thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Your alternative is to sit there and do nothing. Then, and only then, you GUARANTEE that nothing will happen. Howard Dean said the only way we lose is if we give up. I'd rather be inspired by the Good Doctor (actually the two of them mentioned here).

Even if you can't get into this mentally, try just going through the motions. Acting. Act AS IF. Sometimes it actually helps. And what have we got to lose, anyway, except three more years in the abyss? I'd rather work toward something, even if it's tilting at windmills, rather than give up and do nothing, and admit defeat before I even got into the game.

[abluelady]

14. Thanks! :-)

I can't imagine sitting back and doing nothing. I have to feel that trying can make something happen! If nothing else, at least the Repugs out there know some of us are not satisfied.

[Dr Fate]

16. It would happen if Gore or Kerry had done it.

Top republicans would be on TV every night making the case for it to the Amercian people.

[Ksec]

17. the war should have got him impeached

if he can get away with what he did there then I doubt anything would make a rethug get a conscience.