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Beyond the issue of WHAT Karl Rove said last week, I've been thinking about some of the political implications of WHERE he gave the speech, and what it bodes for the Republican Party.
To understand this, you first need a basic introduction to New York State politics. While the major battles are between the Democrats and republicans, we have a history of "third parties", which traditionally cross-endorse major candidates, partly to influence the ideological bent, aprtly to curry favor with the major players by delivering extra voters (for example, in the Giuliani days, if you couldn't bring yourself to vote for Rudy as a REPUBLICAN, you could vote for him as a LIBERAL - - the payoff being that Raymond Harding, the LP head's son got a cushy Administration job). These days, Dems are also carried on the Working Families Party line, and Republicans on the Conservative Party line.
HOWEVER, in the past year, following Bush's re-election, we've all noticed the RW and Christian Conservative groups flexing their muscles a lot more, and expressing their unwililngness to keep supporting the "establishment" politicians who give them lip service on issues they care about, but little actual policy. The same applies here in NY, where the Conservative Party refused to back Howard Mills, the Republican nominee for Senate against Charles Schumer. Running their own candidate, they got 220,000 votes that otherwise would have fallen in the R column. The Conservatives have also indicated that, in the unlikely event that Governor Pataki runs for a fourth term, he'll be unlikely to get their endorsement because of his abortion views.
The dilemma for New York Republicans is that, by national Republican standards, they're flaming liberals, partly because of statewide philosophy, but largely because they recongize that, to have any hope of holding onto power here, that have to run and govern closer to the center (even then, the Dems have been whittling away their power from the highpoint om '94 when they held the Governor's office, Attorney General, one of two US Senate seats and the State Senate). Consequently they have to resist the rightward tug that the Conservative Party exerts on them, which risks dividing the conservative vote and handing the entire state government to the Dems in 2006.
Comes now Karl Rove to make his speech. Does he do it at a fundraiser for Governor Pataki, an aspiring Presidential candidate and who, weak as he is, is probably the best statewide candidate the Republicans have to try and hold onto power here? No. Does he do it at a fundraiser for Mayor Bloomberg, who put out the red carpet for Bush & Co at the republican Convention, and who's in a re-election battle in a city with a 5-1 Democratic edge in voter registration? No. He chooses instead to play before the Conservative Party, which is more in tune philosophically with W himself. What this suggests to me is that Rove and Co. care ONLY about Bush's reputation at this point, and are ready to throw the Republican party structure over the side whenever it comes to a choice between the party's future and Bush's support in the remaining years of his presidency. Should make for a fun 2006 election.
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