Does Edwards deliver North Carolina in the General?

[JPJones]

In 2000, North Carolina voted this way -

Bush 1,631,163

Gore 1,257,692

That's a huge gap to overcome. Do you think that Edwards on the ticket delivers NC?

[beaconess]

1. It's hard to say at this point but he's more likely to deliver NC

than anyone else.

[AP]

7. I think I saw a poll that said that 93% of NC'ians approve of his run.

He's also closer to Bush in NC than Clinton was to Bush in 91 and 92 in Ark at the same point -- and Ark, had gone Republican ever previous election since at least '68, except '76-Carter.

[lastknowngood]

2. NO red state

n/t

[mmonk]

5. A dem can win

I don't think its Edwards. Independents (large number in recent years) never have completely warmed up to him.

[beaconess]

14. What Dem could win NC if Edwards can't?

[AP]

10. If Clinton could win Ark in 92 and 96, Edwards can win NC.

Prior to Clinton, NC and Ark had voted the same way since '68, and NC has got to be riper for the picking today than Ark was in '92. The Helms machine is gone, and it's a huge state (bigger than Mass) thanks to the fact that lots of people from Mass, NY, CT, etc, have moved there. Hell, they even have ice hockey in NC.

[mmonk]

3. No

[arewethereyet]

4. if he's the candidate, yes. if he's the VP, no.

don't forget, he did actually win this state to get where he is.

[mmonk]

6. Never has fared well in head to head polls

[Ivote]

9. Dont think he can

My reason is that he isnt even going to run to hold his Senate seat if he loses in the primaries.

[arewethereyet]

11. thats true

but statistically he's little different that the others. Once things are settled on our side then something more akin to the "unnamed dem" starts to take over and things even out.

Moreover, its only within the last two weeks that anyone has been paying any attention at all to him. And I believe that his fortunes have risen in the polls in that period.

[AP]

13. He does better than Clintoln did vs Bush I.

[mmonk]

17. Got the numbers?

I can't remember them. I do know Clinton closed the numbers well in 96.

[HFishbine]

8. Yes

The job losses (especially manufacturing) have been staggering in NC and people blame Bush. I happen to think that Dean (+ on guns) and Clark (+ miliatry experince) also can carry NC over Bush.

[mmonk]

12. I still hope he would

but a day doesn't go by hardly that readers don't write in to the people's forum of the News and Observer complaining about him.

[AP]

16. I wrote positive post on the N&Os web site and every one was deleted.

I guarantee you they have an editorial agenda that is so stalinistically carried out BECAUSE he has a chance to win NC.

[mmonk]

20. ?????

They have been following him as if he were the only candidate running.

[beaconess]

23. That's because of the local angle

I'm sure the Vermont papers are giving Dean considerably more coverage than the other candidates, as well.

[mmonk]

25. Mark my word

The News and Observer will endorse Edwards if his time comes. They don't endorse republicans for high office.

[arewethereyet]

15. Taxes will kill Dean there and you are generous with Clark's appeal

yes, they are mad but are they willing to surrender taxes for it ? no.

[HFishbine]

19. Since I am on of the "theys"

I'll stand by my observations.

[TeacherCreature]

18. No, I do not think he does

If NC goes democratic it will be because many people who have long since given up on voting come back to the democratic party. Edwards will not excite the base or bring in new voters. He is the typical pretty boy vacuous politician.

[mmonk]

21. Bottom line

maybe but doubtful. It's very hard to gage the anger over bush against what those that supported bush stand for in the rhealm of the tax cut lifts all boats dogma. One positive thing for the dems is that the dems do fine in elections other than the presidency itself. As far as Edwards goes, his support is solid with the party leaders and apparatus in NC, but split elsewhere. I'm not sure that he is more popular with the people than other dems such as Erskine Bowles.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

22. The Way to Win the South

is to get out and register new voters. There are plenty of people out there who don't vote, and if the local Dem. committees are as lackluster as they are here in AR, we may have to bypass them entirely and concentrate on reaching new voters and disenchanted voters, possibly via the individual candidate's campaigns. They are out there-go get 'em!

[beaconess]

24. You're right we need to register new voters

but we also need to energize the voters we already have, particularly minorities, who feel no enthusiasm for the party. We have more than enough voters already on the rolls to kick Bush out in a landslide. The key is to get them motivated.