Analysis of Senate 2006 Races?

[The Jacobin]

Although kicking around the 2008 presidential contenders is fun, its not practical.

We will only get a full accounting of the Bush Crime Family when we retake Congress.

Can anyone point me to an analysis of weak Republicans and Democrats that need attacking or supporting respectively? I would like to spend my time ane money wisely in nearer political contests.

[Coexist]

1. Scary Harris wants Nelson of FL seat.

Big one here - we would then have TWO republicans from Florida. Nelson is very centrist and loved, but Harris might have the star power to make the race close.

[liberaliraqvet26]

4. i dont think she can pull it off...

without help by diebold. Shes only popular with the far right. She only won her heavily conservative district with 55% of the vote. She will awaken sleeping democrats who hopefully come out in droves. this can bleed over into the gov race. wishful thinking i guess but Nelson is popular not only here in blue se fla, but also in the panhandle & tampa.

[BagEnd]

21. Don't be too comfortable... she's won state-wide before

You can't do that with "just" the far right. And I think she out-performed Bush in her district.

Nelson has a clear advantage, but there's no question this is one of my three toughest races (on our side). She's certainly going to have no problem raising funds. :-(

[minnesotaDFLer]

2. mark dayton is not rerunning for his seat here in minnesota

right now the republican candidate is mark kennedy, hes basically just like norm coleMEAN,

there are 3 Dem candidates
Amy Klobuchar
Patty Wetterling (who lost a house race to kennedy)
and Duran, some business guy who is willing to spend millions (at least so he says)

this race has shit written all over it, we better win this or minnesota becomes ALL REPUBLICAN

[AlGore-08.com]

6. So is Al Franken definately not running?

Or is he just not considered a major (or legit) candidate?

[minnesotaDFLer]

7. frankens running in 08' agaisnt colemean

[snowbear]

11. minnesotaDFler, how do you think Al will do?

I was looking up Google articles, and I see that earlier in the year (January & February) he pretty much decided to wait on running until 2012.

But you're right.. the latest articles all indicate that after seriously contemplating the run with his family, he's leaning more towards going for it. (Although, obviously he hasn't made anything official yet)

Since you're from the great hockey state.. :7 er.. I mean.. since you're from MN, what do you personally think his odds are?

I've read on here where a couple of people are completely against him.. but if he can win, DAMN, I'd love to see him do it!!

Is there any chatter in MN yet? Or are they waiting for something official from him?

[minnesotaDFLer]

14. hey if

ventura can do it, so can he. But colemans a big time repub now, hes up there with the big dogs, so he wont go down easy.
there isnt a hole lot of talk about it, i was supposed to go see franken at the U of M the other day but missed it. too bad, heard it was good.

[GetTheRightVote]

3. I help to spread the word on Nelson getting back in, he must

I am from Florida.

:kick:

[expatriot]

5. Very conservative R Jon Kyl of AZ is up for re-election

Don't know who we're putting up... it is a shame we don't have our shit together more. Talk is Jim Peterson (chair of the state party) will run, he's got the money to run but don't think he's got enough experience. It will be a shame if we don't get somebody good to run against him, especially since Janet is up for re-election and she is very popular, don't know if the Repugs are going to put up a serious challenger to her... we could take Kyl out if we had our shit together. **sigh**

[BagEnd]

8. CookPoliticalReport is well respected.

The "low hanging" fruit is mostly Republican, but the next tier are almost all Democrats.

[safi0]

13. I'm not that worried

About Florida's race. Strategic Vision a Puke polling organization has Nelson beating her 48-41, it can only be worse if the poll was done by a neutral organization.

Looking at our seats, I think Nelson in Nebraska could be vulnerable because they have a Gov. race that year and Nelson could be hurt from that. Cantwell is another person I'm somewhat worried about, she won by an extremely slim margin in 2000 she hasn't really done much in her term in office, and Dino Rossi who barely lost the Gov. race might run against her. Then you have the 2 open seats, Minnesota and Maryland. Minnesota will probably be difficult, but I think we can retain that seat. Maryland, I think both Ben Cardin and Kwesi Mfume would beat Michael Steele, and as long as our primary didn't get too bloody we should be able to retain that seat. Finally Conrad in ND and Kohl in Wisconsin could be vulnerable if they get a patricular candidate.

[BagEnd]

22. I'm not TOO worried about Florida either.... but

48-41 is actually not a very good result for an incumbent Senator. A year out, just about the only thing we look at is "is the incumbent regularly under 50% in head-to-head polling?". If (s)he is, there's potential trouble ahead.

This is why Santorum is in the "tossup" category (I think we win that one) and why Byrd is a big question mark and Cantwell is in trouble.

I haven't looked at MD in awhile, but my gut says Cardin wins it, but Mfume loses (if it's Steele).

[safi0]

27. You have to

Take into account the fact that this is a Republican pollster. A neutral pollster probably would have had it at someone thing 51-39, not great but that's comftorable.

[The Jacobin]

20. Cook has the following listed:

• Toss up:
  
  • Held by Democrats:
    Minnesota (Dayton - retiring?)
    Vermont (Jeffords - retiring? )
    
  • Held by Repugs:
    Pennsylvania, Santorum
    Rhode Island, Chafee
    Tennessee (Frist - retiring)
    
  
  
• Leaning Democrat:
  Florida, Nelson
  Michigan, Stabenow
  Nebraska, Nelson
  New Jersey, Corzine
  Washington, Cantwell
  Maryland (Sarbanes - retiring?)
  
  
• Leaning Repug:
  none - all the rest are basically safe
  

[BagEnd]

23. I largely agree with him

Except that Washington is only a "leaning Democrat" because they don't know if Rossi is going to run. If he does, we likely lose that seat (assuming, of course, there isn't a Democratic "tidal wave" caused by Bush's falling numbers).

I'm also not sure how we lose VT, so I don't see it as a "tossup".


Obvious caveat to all of this - Charlie Cook knows a lot more than I do. :-)

[martymar64]

30. I disagree about Rossi

He has made a fool of himself with the Governors Race Trial. He's widely seen here as a sore loser and a tool to boot. He'll be lucky to be elected dog catcher.

[BagEnd]

31. If you're local, I'll defer to your judgement... but the polls don't seem

to agree.

[Pepperbelly]

9. Check out what Ron Faucheux has to say at

Election Odds.

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12

Pick out which race and check it out. He claims a 98.2% accuracy.

[The Jacobin]

10. That looks interesting

The senate races seem to be up to date, but there is very little data to back up the predictions. (e.g. something like "this is a very safe seat")

[Pepperbelly]

18. he isn't trying to dazzle us with analysis ... he is cutting odds pure ...

and simple, always as it stands right NOW. All of it is subjet to change. Like the odds in horseracing.

[liberaliraqvet26]

16. some of those ratings look off....

even the 2005 races-

NYC Mayor-
Bloomberg(R) looks like hes sailing to victory. The D's in this race cannot get their shit together for nothing. Bloomberg was a lifelong Democrat who ran on the repub ticket because they had no one else and didn't have to face a crowded Dem primary challenge and is pretty liberal and well respected from both sides of the spectrum. This site has it as a 50/50 toss up. I dont buy that. He has this in the bag.

NJ Gov-
Corzine(D) will take this with at least 60% of the vote. He is very popular even in some conservative suburbs.

[Pepperbelly]

19. he isn't predicting ...

per centages. These are odds of winning.

[Internut]

29. I made a little simulator that works off the Faucheux odds

to calculate the chances of Democrats in 2006. Here are the inputs (I assumed that Jeffords would win, in order to narrow it to D/R only)

The probabilities in the individual Senate races:

California   - Dianne Feinstein  80.0%  | Arizona     - Jon Kyl           75.0%  
Connecticut  - Joe Lieberman     90.0%  | Indiana     - Richard Lugar     88.8%  
Florida      - Bill Nelson       54.6%  | Maine       - Olympia Snowe     87.5%  
Hawaii       - Daniel Akaka      88.8%  | Mississippi - Trent Lott        83.3%  
Maryland     - Open              54.6%  | Missouri    - Jim Talent        57.2%  
Massachusetts- Ted Kennedy       88.8%  | Montana     - Conrad Burns      60.0%  
Michigan     - Debbie Stabenow   54.6%  | Nevada      - John Ensign       66.6%  
Minnesota    - Open              50.0%  | Ohio        - Mike DeWine       60.0%  
Nebraska     - Ben Nelson        52.6%  | Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum     52.7%  
New Jersey   - Open?             60.0%  | Rhode Island- Lincoln Chaffee   51.7%  
New Mexico   - Jeff Bingaman     60.0%  | Tennessee   - Open              51.7%  
New York     - Hillary Clinton   75.0%  | Texas       - K. B. Hutchinson  66.6%  
North Dakota - Kent Conrad       60.0%  | Utah        - Orrin Hatch       87.5%  
Tennessee    - Open              60.0%  | Virginia    - George Allen      75.0%  
Washington   - Maria Cantwell    52.6%  | Wyoming     - Craig Thomas      88.8%  
West Virginia- Robert Byrd       80.0%  | 
Wisconsin    - Herb Kohl         70.0%  | 

Here are the outputs:

  Chances of gaining seats:
-------------------------------------------
  Democrats         |    Republicans
# of  |             | # of  |
seats | Probability | seats | Probability
gain  |  (in %)     |       |  (in %)
-------------------------------------------
 9+   |    0.0      |  9+   |     0.2
 8+   |    0.0      |  8+   |     0.6
 7+   |    0.1      |  7+   |     1.7
 6+   |    0.3      |  6+   |     4.3
 5+   |    1.1      |  5+   |     9.4
 4+   |    3.0      |  4+   |     18.0
 3+   |    6.9      |  3+   |     30.3
 2+   |    14.0     |  2+   |     45.4
 1+   |    24.8     |  1+   |     61.1
      |             |
 0    |    14.1     |  0    |     14.1

[Yupster]

32. These 98 % prediction rates are misleading

These types of sites don't race each race.

They may call 50 races too close to call.

That leaves the gerrymandered seats as callable which is no great feat of magic.

On the 06 senate races, I bet I could score 100 % accuracy if I got to call five races as too close to call.

[Pepperbelly]

37. Except ...

by the morning of the election, he makes a call and publishes it before any votes are counted or exit polls taken.

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. Pennsylvania will probably be the most watched race in the country

Rick Santorum will likely face State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

[snowbear]

15. Who do you think will win Freddie?

I say Casey wins easily against that pointy-nose woosie boy! ;)



oops - edit: picture is of bob casey, jr.

[Freddie Stubbs]

38. Casey will likely win, but it will be close

Santourm is a shrewd politician. You don't get elected to the Senate at 36 otherwise. He will probably have plenty of trick up his sleeve. But Casey's social conservatism will probably erode enough of Santorum's base to win.

[liberaliraqvet26]

17. fla race will attract..

national attention too with cruella deville in it

[Nikki Stone 1]

28. I hate Santorum, but I think Casey is a mistake.

However, getting Santorum OUT is primary.

[Freddie Stubbs]

39. Like him or not

Casey is the party's best shot at taking out Santorum.

[Selatius]

24. Bernie Sanders will probably pick up the seat of Jim Jeffords

He has incredible support from his constituency, and the kicker is that he's a democratic socialist.

[quaoar]

25. Montana Senate seat is up for grabs

Republican Conrad Burns is quite vulnerable.

And Lucy Baxley can win the Alabama governorship.

[Catchawave]

26. Sabato has a good website....

...and he's one of "them":

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[snowbear]

34. Huh..

I just looked at his site. He has Jeb Bush listed under 2006 Florida candidates for U.S. Senate..

:wtf: ..Seriously?

[Nikki Stone 1]

33. It would be nice to have a chart

Safe seats
Up for grabs
Etc.

[Awsi Dooger]

35. Here's a chart evaluating the last cycle and statewide partisanship

Very simplistic, but I've seen analysis like this before and it holds up remarkably well. Basically, it adds the candidate's percentage in his/her last election to the percentage the party received in the 2004 presidential vote. Low numbers (top of the chart) are most vulnerable and highest numbers supposedly safe. Similar to Internut's table, not good news for us in 2006: http://www.command-post.org/polelect/2_archives/019537.html

[Nikki Stone 1]

36. Thank you for the chart

Let's take a look and see how depressing it is.

[BenDS]

40. in a wave we could pick up 3-4 seats

We could pick up PA, Montana, Missouri (if Mccaskill runs), and Rhode Island. Im not too worried about any of the democrats up for reelection bc Dole has done a really bad job recruiting for NRSC and probably wont get the best candidates to run in North Dakota and Washington. Unless either Hoeven or Rossi runs there, their only good opportunity is Minnesota, where Kloubacher or Wetterling would still probably have the upper hand.

We need to recruit better candidates in Nevada and especially Ohio. There, the Noe coin scandal and right-wing dissatisfaction with Dewine could make a pickup possible. Unfortunately, our two best candidates arent running (Strickland is in the governors race and Brown is going for reelection) Any ideas for a candidate? Maybe we should try to draft Kucinich or Tim Ryan. Time is running out to find a candidate and it would be unfortunate if such a weak incumbent went unchallenged.

[Geek_Girl]

41. Frist Seat is Up in '06

Here are the 2 Dems running that I know of in the primaries

Kurita

Ford

We just had a big scandal here in TN involving Harold Fords Uncle and several State Dems who supported him. The day after Harold Formerly announced his plans to run his Uncle was indicted. IMHO it was a set up.

Both of Kurita and Ford are DLC.

Basically I think TN is a lost for Dems.

[liberalismresurgent]

42. Hillary is a lock

She has a lead of about 60-62% against around 28-30% in the republican side, no matter who the opponent is.