Azerbaijan’s political temperature rises as the parliamentary election campaign looms.
Two principles seem to guide foreign policy of the administration of U.S. President George Bush – an intent to open up international energy markets and a desire to promote democratic values around the globe. These two notions appear to be on a collision course in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich state in the Caucasus where the risk of risk of political violence is growing.
The last half of this year promises to be eventful in Baku. The main pillar of the country’s long-range economic development effort – the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline – is expected to become operational in late 2005, around the same time parliamentary elections are held in November. Already, there are indications that the election could prove tumultuous. Political uncertainty, in turn, could cloud the pipeline’s prospects for a smooth launch.
Opposition parties have become increasingly active in 2005, clearly emboldened by the revolutionary trend in the former Soviet Union that has produced regime change in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan over the past 18 months. On 21 May, an opposition coalition sponsored a demonstration, calling for guarantees of a free-and-fair legislative vote. The Azeri government refused to sanction the rally, and police used force to break it up. Dozens were injured in the confrontation, including several journalists covering the event who were wearing special vests designed to identify them as members of the press and thus protect them from harassment. Estimates of the number of arrests ranged from 45 to 149.
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