Japan Considering Exit Strategy From Iraq

[Imagevision]

TOKYO (AP) -

After kissing their babies and hugging their wives, 200 Japanese soldiers in combat fatigues lined up at a base in central Japan last weekend under the "Rising Sun" flag for what has become a familiar ritual - the send-off for troops on their way to Iraq.

But this batch of soldiers may be among the last.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/w-asia/2005/may/11/051102635.html

[NuttyFluffers]

1. hm, i'm intrigued on how japan is going to realign itself.

soon it'll come to a head having america as its only real friend in its region. especially considering there's plenty of neocons getting tired of defending japan and thinking of it as an expendable 'permanent aircraft carrier.' the neocons are just waiting for some tech advance to stop dealing with japan entirely -- which would be a stupid move on our part. 2nd strongest economy and a good ally discarded over toys is pretty bad policy.

[sleipnir]

2. No, The US presence is the only thing keeping a Chinese invasion at bay

The minute the US pulls out of Japan, China is going to be invading. Many complex reasons exist, but it's a well known fact China and Japan don't get along, and China has been throwing a lot of muster in the general direction of Japan. The US forces act as a nice deterrent between the two countries, because if Japan falls to China, it's a massive new headache for American military planners. China would then be in a a short strike range of Alaska and the West coast, only a scant two hours by high-speed aircraft. An Artic land invasion by China would also become a frightening reality, however unlikely, the specter would exist.

Remember, the Chinese had some of the worst war crimes committed against any recognized state in WWII. The Japanese were exceedingly vicious and the Chinese are still extraordinarily angry and probably still looking for some measure of revenge.

Even the Neocons realize this and they certainly are in no mood to have to defend Japan against a Chinese invasion, so our troops stay as a checkmate for the moment.

[iceman_419]

3. Oh that is B.S.

tthe Chinese may not like the Japanese for historical reasons, but China does not intend to attack or invade Japan. The only reason China wants Taiwan is because it is part of China. China and Japan a mad at each other because of what happened in WW II and what has happened go Japanese history books. China has no intention of annexing Japan. That would be economically stupid and politically stupid. As for war crimes, the U.S. has no right to talk. We committed the greatest war crime by droping the bomb on Japan twice and carpet bomibing their houses. China doesn't want to attack us militarily, and will work to destroy us economically. Notice the only country to invade another country for military reasons is us. We invade Vietnam and started that war and then we invaded Iraq and started that war. Other countries have learned that fighting is stupid and it's better to work things out and eat and have sex. So your idea that China will invade Japan if the marines left is ludacris and has no basis. At worst they will throw history books at eachother.

[Boo Boo]

4. Yeah, China isn't going to invade Japan

Even if we didn't have a presence an invasion of Japan would mean war with the United States. But, there are points of friction there that could lead to something serious without our presence. There is, for instance, the disputed offshore boundary underneath which lies a massive field of Natural Gas. Japan intends to drill; China says it belongs to them.

Here's bit from globalpolicy.org:

A decision by Japan to initiate natural gas production in a disputed area of the East China Sea sparked massive anti-Japanese protests in China on April 16, the worst outpouring of such animosities in over 30 years. Although leaders of both countries sought to diffuse the crisis by promising fresh efforts at reconciliation, neither side has backed off its claims to the offshore territories. While other issues also fed into Chinese popular discontent, notably Japan's reluctance to express regret for atrocities committed by its forces in China during World War II, Tokyo's unilateral move to extract natural gas from the East China Sea was the precipitating factor. At stake potentially is the ownership of a vast undersea gas field in disputed waters lying between China's central coast and Japan's Ryukyu island chain. Because the offshore boundary between China and Japan has not been established, neither side is willing to countenance the extraction of gas by the other in the disputed "national territory." Thus, when Tokyo announced on April 13 that it would allow drilling by Japanese companies in waters claimed by China, Beijing had no compunctions about allowing an unprecedented, weekend-long display of nationalistic fervor.

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/economy/2005/0509energy.htm

[NuttyFluffers]

5. i understand your concern, and part is valid.

but, and this may be odd to know, but japan is considered to have the 2nd strongest maritime fleet, and a surprising amount of their technology is dual use, so easily converted into military use when it becomes necessary. they already built an aircraft carrier, but in trying to placate their nervous neighbors they made it small, put pilons to prevent jets landing/taking off, and designed for only helicopters -- but no one was fooled, they know perfectly well japan can bounce into a war machine surprisingly fast. thing is, the japanese populous is wary of doing so, the entire region and world is wary of letting them.

being USAs primary partner in development of war technology definitely gives them a leg up in churning out a modern military. but there's other factors holding it back. but when will be the time when japan should pump out a few nuclear subs? technically they can pretty much do so right now, politically it'd be as unwelcome as germany becoming a military power again. heck even more so, because germany was allowed to have an autonomous military again, whereas japan's is just a "civilian defense/police force."

russia's fleet is the only real naval threat they have. china's army is a threat, but there's quite a bit more advancements they need to make their navy a worthwhile threat, which would be essential to project their army's power threat across the sea into mainland japan.