Little Things: Electoral Votes of Home States

[DoveTurnedHawk]

Dean's home state of Vermont is already safely Democratic.
Kerry's home state of Massachusetts is already safely Democratic.
Edwards' home state of North Carolina is generally expected to be a tossup, even with Edwards running as President.

In contrast, Clark's home state of Arkansas is generally expected to go for Clark, which is another 6 electoral votes (for a 12 electoral vote swing) in the Democratic column that probably would not have been there otherwise.

After 2000, we all know that even one electoral vote (for a two vote swing) can make a huge difference.

Just another thought in support of Clark. :-)

DTH

[pmbryant]

1. Is it really that definite?

I agree that Dean's and Kerry's states will definitely go D, whoever is running.

But I don't think NC is a tossup, unless Edwards is running, and I think Arkansas is a tossup, even with Clark running.

Unfortunately neither of those guys are so obviously popular in their home states as to make them much easier Dem pickups than they would be without them on the ticket. The strongest argument on this score, in my opinion, always was with Bob Graham, but unfortunately, that didn't seem to do his campaign any good.

:-(

--Peter

[Leilani]

2. In Arkansas

Clark has the backing of 2 Dem senators, Dale Bumpers, a legend in Ark., & don't forget Bill Clinton.

I think Clinton will campaign for any of the nominees, & Clinton is still popular there. His library is there.

I think Gore should have used Clinton to campaign in 2000, in certain states.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

3. NC Is GOP Unless Edwards Runs, Then It's a Tossup

Edwards would have lost his own re-election bid for Senate, according to the polls.

Clark would win AR, based on everything I've seen.

DTH

[pmbryant]

6. What have you seen about Arkansas?

I agree about NC. (Though I don't think polls a year ahead of time are all that good indicators of how Edwards would have done in a re-election bid.)

What have you seen that indicates Clark would make Arkansas better than a tossup for Dems?

:shrug:

--Peter

[DemPopulist]

9. That's a myth

There were never any polls showing that Edwards would've lost his re-election race. It would've been a tough, tight race based on the GOP's strength in the state and the money they would've poured in to defeat him, but he consistently led Burr (the prospective Republican nominee) in all the polls at even the bleakest points of his presidential campaign. Hell, even Bowles has been ahead of Burr. Link to NC polls

On Clark and Arkansas: I think he would carry the state as nominee, but it's one of the easier Southern states for Democrats to carry. IMO, Edwards would probably win it just as easily and even Kerry would have a shot there with a Southern veep. But Edwards is probably the only guy who could win NC, and it has a lot more electoral votes than any of the other major candidates' home states.

[morgan2]

4. kucinich's home state of ohio

it was close in 2000 and has had massive job losses. Bush even went there to give a little add on to his state of the union to aknowledge their losses. Obviously they think he's vulnerable there, I agree.

[eileen from OH]

5. Bush sure is vulnerable in OH

but I don't think that he's vulnerable to Kucinich. Sorry, but that's the way I see it.

We have an almost total Republican stranglehold on state offices, although many LOCAL ones are Dem, particularly in the Northeast, which is quite liberal. And those same Republican state officeholders are, right now, VERY unpopular, especially the Governor.

There is a very real possiblity of "reverse" coattails in Ohio. That is, Bush could go down simply because he's in the same party as Taft.

Ohio is ripe, ripe, ripe, for Dem plucking.

eileen from OH

[AP]

7. NC: 15; VT: 3; AR: 6; MA: 12. Looks like a good argument for Edwards.

Win same states as Gore, lose FL, win NC and a Dem is in office in 2005.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/


OH is 20 votes, by the way. The winner of the race has won OH since 1960. It went Bush 50:46.

[eileen from OH]

8. I like Edwards a lot and I think he

COULD nail some of the Southern states but there does seem to be some resistance to him from his home state. (Judging from what NCarolinians have said here and other places, plus polls from SC.) I know you don't want to hear this, but he really IS the perfect VP choice. He's amazing at working a crowd and a has a wonderful way of phrasing the economic message. But fund-raising and experience make me wary. The first could change, but I do worry about the second, as far as the top spot is concerned.

eileen from OH