In response to the "Kerry is weak in the 2/3 states" meme

[DJcairo]

There are several problems with this idea being floated by dissapointed Dean/Clark supporters. I'll try to enumerate them clearly in the hopes that this might alieve the doubters.

1) The reasoning behind this meme is based on pre-Iowa polls of 2/3 states, almost all of which were taken in December. Not only do they bare little relevance post-Iowa, but they don't even capture the changing nature of the race immediately preceding Iowa.
2) The second reason given (in light of the fact that every serious political junky knows polls can change ) is that Kerry is the only one not advertising in 2/3 states.
The fact is, without a win in Iowa, Kerry could have expected little chance of winning NH and would have had to bow out before 2/3 so there wasn't much point in blowing money pre-Iowa on 2/3 states. As many of you know, that's all changed, and if Kerry wins NH by a large margin it changes even more. The Kerry team is no doubt waiting to see who is left standing after NH. These early primaries effectively winnow the field. While there may be four now (Kerry, Clark, Dean Edwards, in roughly that order) there will probably be one or two less after NH.
3) Money. This is the most common reasoning expressed over at pro-Dean/Clark blogs like Dailykos.com - which is, incidentally, a hot bed of false, rumor ridden political reporting, nearly all of which has been proven horribly wrong and uninformed by recent events. Kerry has already raised $800k online since Tuesday this week and has a large and effective national fundraising base. He was number 2 to Dean in money before injecting his own to assure he would remain competitive in these next two weeks. A win in NH pretty much gaurantees that his national fundraising stucture is resucitated not too mention the increase in online donations his win in Iowa has already brought.
4) He's a New Englander who won't play in the south. I have four words for that. Fritz Hollings-who endorsed Kerry today-and Max Cleland. Actually I have a few more words for that. Kerry's Big Mo' and veteran war record will no doubt be strengths in the south and should help him do well there. All he needs is a strong finish in SC, not neccessarily a win - remember it's Edwards who has to win there. Kerry can do well in MO, AZ, ND and DE where he already has sent some advance staff. A win in 2 or 3 of these states offsets a narrow loss in SC.

[KittyWampus]

1. Kerry Pulled Out of SC & Has To Rebuild

He has little time to build in all the states he needs by 2/3- that is ONE WEEK.

All the money for ads won't even help... although if they don't show him speaking they MIGHT help a little.

So it is not a meme but a fact.

Kerry had to sink his time & money into Iowa and is playing ketchup in NH.

[DJcairo]

2. Last I checked he wasn't catching up he blowing past

He is in the led in NH according too ALL the recent polls so I'm not sure what you mean when you say he's had "to play catch up" in NH.

[KittyWampus]

6. People Couldn't Get Away From Kerry Fast Enough In NH

They flocked to Dean and then to Clark.

That Kerry got a bump in his own backyard is understandable.


Where was Kerry before he mortgaged his house?

[poopyjr]

3. IMO Clark has to finish ahead of Dean in NH.

To be seen as the "anti-Kerry" in the Feb 3 and beyond type states.

I see a Kerry, Clark, Dean finish in NH.

[DJcairo]

5. I woudl agree but what does this do to your man Edwards

I'm not sure a 4th for Edwards would neccessariyl be seen as particularly strong for him, especially if Kerry wins NH by a big margin. I know Edwards is not supposed to do all that weel in NH, but is he wants to say he can has national appeal because he's from the south he may have to do better than fourth in NH. After all, Clinton came in a strong 2nd and that propelled him to the nomination.

[poopyjr]

11. We'll have to see <nm>

[DemPopulist]

13. Doesn't Iowa show that Edwards has national appeal?

And the same with Kerry.

[KittyWampus]

8. Clark Needs A Strong Third

And Clark, unlike all the the other candidates is set up for a National campaign.

[lastknowngood]

4. look Kerry would be a big improvement

over the shrub, however he is anti gun and that will lose you the entire south and most of the Midwest on that one issue. The issues are now being decided by the "liberal media" and they will be
popular war time leader
gay marriage
abortion
terra
illegal aliens
steroids?
we are safer because we killed people

California will go repub because arnnie will install a Katherine Harris clone to purge the democratic roles just before the election.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. talk about a distortion

geez!

[andym]

9. There is one critical supporting argument that you left out

Winning a critical primary or placing unexpectedly high is of almost incalculable value. The large amount of good free press is probably worth more than the war chests of any of the candidates. That's why Iowa and New Hampshire have been so hotly contested. The winner and/or unexpected high placer will gain in the polls around the country because they will be seem as "winners" and the herd mentality is very important in politics.

But, all could benefit: Clark if he comes in 2nd will be in great shape.
Dean if he recovers will be in great shape. Edwards if he does well will be in great shape etc.

The point is that winning trumps organization and to some extent money.
Why? Again the free good press is worth millions of dollars (if not incalculably more).

[DJcairo]

10. A Clark second would be good for him, but it has to be close

A second place finish means nothing if it's a Kerry blowout. Especially since Cl;ark ahd teh field to himself for weeks before and has said that doing well here is important to his candidacy, unlike, say, Edwards.

Kerry/Edwards 04'