Brokered Convention: 4 way deadlock

[ringmastery]

Let's say Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Clark split the primaries and none of them is the clear winner.

Who gets the nomination? Would all four candidates be too damaged and impotent to compete effectively against Bush? It would effectively be an abbreviated 3 month campaign.

Would Gore or Hillary bail the democrats out? Who else has the national stature to run without participating in the primary?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

1. Kucinich of course!

The Heart of the Democratic Party - who else? :)

[goodhue]

3. Thats the plan!

Although frankly I don't see Dean or Clark making it that far.

[Iverson]

7. Yo.

n/t

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. Give the nomination to a guy who got the least votes?

That wouldn't be very democratic or Democratic.

[overground1]

33. Didn't you know? Getting the least votes is in now... It worked for Bush!

[meegbear]

2. We'll go back to the 'smoky backrooms' ...

where the deals are made and broken.

[WI_DEM]

4. it is more likely in my mind than it was a week ago

and it could produce a Hillary Clinton nomination.

[Perky]

6. That would be red meat

for the GOP.

Not gonna happen.

[andym]

5. It's possible

But the smoky rooms will be influenced by the nominees who control most of the votes. A deal between two of the candidates is likely.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. Gore yes. Hillary, no thanks.

Hillary supported the war.

[Rich Hunt]

12. talk about a lack of pragmatism

What are the 'Hillary in 2004' people smoking?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

13. Not anything I would touch.

Hillary keeps moving backwards towards her "Goldwater Girls" days.

[Rich Hunt]

15. LOL

Very funny and accurate.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

21. Agreed: Gore yes. Hillary, no thanks.

!

[mohc]

9. Hopefully

The candidates with the most and second most delegates would agree to join forces as a single ticket, with the runner up taking the VP slot. This is obviously more likely to happen if it ends up with Kerry or Edwards in second.

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. I'm not sure if a brokered 'convention' would really happen

In this day and age of instant communication, I think that party leaders would get together and strike a deal in a non-smoked filled back room well before the convention.

[overground1]

14. Neither Gore nor Hillary could get the nomination

There are only 802 super-delegates. Not enough to hand the nomination to some arbitrary non-candidate, even if every last one of them was in agreement. Besides, giving the nomination to someone who was not even running would alienate too many voters.

The most likely outcome is that Edwards and Clark will drop out sooner than you think and it will be a Dean-Kerry race that produces a fairly clear winner By mid-March. These things have a way of seeming uncertain and chaotic, but then working themselves out.

[ringmastery]

16. how many delegates from each state

are committed delegates?

can't they switch like some people switch votes in the electoral college?

[overground1]

19. There are 3520 "pledged" delegates

With the 802 "super delegates". That makes a total of 4322 convention delegates, of which a candidate must win over half, 2163. As you can see, there would have to be a widespread conspiracy to give the nomination to Hillary or Gore (and Gore is really just not all that well liked).

[3rdParty]

23. 'pledged delegate'???

Aren't they only pledged for the first ballot? Then after that for all future ballots they are free to choose for whomever they want? I think this is the way it used to work but not sure of the rules of today.

[overground1]

24. sure, but these guys are loyalists. They will be looking to convert others

not be converted. Human behavior follows mathematic diffusion patterns. Don't believe that everyone will just uniformly fall in line behind any one person, particularly a non-candidate. The aggregate result will follow the path of least resistance. A riot would break out before Hillary or Gore got the nomination.

[Valjean]

20. Dean AND Kerry

Dean and Kerry are two Democrats that the Republicans are NOT afraid of. They are both Northeast liberals that people in the "red" states hate.

The key to winning isn't appealing to your base. You must appeal to the swing voters. Democrats have to win some of the "red" states. They did it with Bill Clinton because he was a southerner with a rags to riches story.

Dean and Kerry are both from privileged backgrounds. Of course Kerry is a member of the most exclusive, elitist club in America "Skull & Bones".


So lets please all try to think like someone in the "red" states. You have to nominate a candidate that is acceptable to them as well.

[mikehiggins]

17. If it goes to the convention Clark wins.

The pros will have to make the final decision, the "super" delegates and when push comes to shove they'll go with the guy most likely to beat Bush in the south. True or not, most realists think that the southern voter would shoot off his own **** before he'd vote for a Yankee liberal.

Edwards is too young-appearing, too inexperienced-appearing, too pollyannaish for the pros to get behind him.

If Dean and Trippi cannot get enough delegates to win they will most likely move to Clark rather than Kerry, as will many Edwards delegates. None of the other candidates will be tapped for the VP spot which will be held open for someone like the guy from New Mexico or someone else with a tough reputation like Elliot Spitzer (though he has already said no).

I imagine there will be a lot of cattle prodding by the big dog in support of Clark as well.

Gore will NOT run, and will not get nominated if he does.

Hillary will NOT run and will not accept a spot on the national ticket this time out.

Clark is the guy if it goes to the convention.

[overground1]

22. If it goes to convention, then a Senator wins - Not a Chance for Clark

It could be any of the three, even Lieberman.
However, there is not a chance the party bigs will give it to an untested recent convert to the party who has never been elected to even dog-catcher.

Dean has a better chance than Clark here, but he would probably face too much resistance from the party establishment who know Dean would shake things up. They have jobs to protect.

That means they will look to the party establishment standard bearer. Kerry and Lieberman would be on near-equal footing, Edwards would trail, but have the "friendly-face" advantage.

[mikehiggins]

25. Well, I guess that's possible

I hope we don't have to find out for good and real. As far as I can see the only Senator who could take the nomination is Kerry (look, even the party pros know Joe2004 is a total loss) and there is just so much baggage attached to anyone who's spent thirty years in the Beltway.

Still, I'd support him if he got the nod. I just don't see the Dean people and the Edwards people signing on for him.

ABB RULES!

[overground1]

27. Lieberman does the best in non-partisan national polls, plus he has 2000

which provides him with the credibility and title of logical successor for the ticket. Lieberman is only a total loss among grassroots activists. He is a smart choice for a general election win.

[Valjean]

18. Combination

A combination ticket would be a natural result. I believe that a Clark/Edwards ticket would be the most likely to win. They are the most likely to take the "red states". The "blue" states will mostly vote for the Democrats irregardless of who the candidates are.

Folks in the "Red" states resent the Eastern Establishment. Or as they call it "Those F*cking Yankees". Kerry belongs to the biggest Eastern establishment club of them all "Skull & Bones". Dean comes from a privileged background.

Gore could not use the "privileged" argument against Bush because he too came from a privileged family. Clinton by contrast came from the backwaters of Arkansas. His Step-Daddy beat him, but he went on to become a Rhodes scholar, lawyer and Governor. So Clinton could play the "blue-blood" card against Bush Sr. Another member of Skull & Bones.

Both Clark AND Edwards come from southern/border/rural states. They are both absolutely brilliant. They both come from modest beginnings. They both earned their way to their position. And they are both apparently "studs" as I've been told by females.

So a Clark/Edwards ticket would probably be a slam dunk, sure fire way to oust Bush. But the battle would not be won there. We have to remember that we must take at least one Chamber of Congress back from the Repuglicans.

Hopefully America is waking up to all this Neo-Con fundamentalist horse shit. Judging from the attitude of John McCain, I get the feeling that the "real" Republicans are starting to get pissed off with Bush. As much as I may disagree with them on many issues, at least they are responsible and have a sense of fiscal discipline. And finally, they are honest unlike the Bushies.

[MGKrebs]

26. Dean and Kerry would be the only ones left standing.

The others have all accepted matching funds and therefore have a $45 million spending limit until the convention.

In a race as close as you propose, those who have accepted matching funds will have to spend every penny just to stay in the primaries. That means that by April or May they will be broke, and Bush and Dean and Kerry can fire at will for three or four months until the convention. Those candidates will then be too damaged to get the nod in a brokered convention.

Between Dean and Kerry, who knows. Who will get more Clark delegates? Edwards delegates? Will Bill Clinton show up to try to fix things? Will Al Gore have any clout? Who will Terry McAuliffe support?

[overground1]

28. the question may be "who will support Terry McAuliffe?"

[MGKrebs]

29. LOL!

[Qutzupalotl]

30. We could actually benefit from a brokered convention.

Please hear me out. Given that the overriding goal is defeating Bush, it almost doesn't matter who we nominate...all our candidates are good. A brokered convention would allow the "insiders" to assemble a true dream team. So for instance, Clark might agree to drop out if he were promised Secretary of Defense. Or maybe Edwards would drop out if he were promised Attorney General. You get the idea...these are just examples. Much as I dislike being told who to vote for, we could wind up with the strongest players in their strongest positions.

But I agree with Valjean that a Clark/Edwards ticket would beat Bush/Cheney soundly.

[overground1]

31. Who would be promising these positions? - n/t

[fob]

32. Why Bernie Horowitz of course!

nt