Are polls accurate?

[spooky3]

on edit, adding a link:

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Survey USA correctly takes credit for being more open than other pollsters about the limitations of their polling, such as that they do not have a truly random sample, and that the response rates are low. But let me pick on them for an example of how far off these limitations can push the results:

Their 1/16 Iowa poll had a MOE of 4.9%.

Dean 24%
Edwards 22%
Kerry 21%
Gephardt 20%
Other 10%

Undecided 3%

Even if you add 5% (the MOE) to Edwards and Kerry, and subtract 5% from Dean and Gephardt and Other, Survey USA didn't get one prediction right, except maybe the undecided vote.

The point is not that Survey USA is bad but rather that you'd probably get the same results with the other polls too. Feel free to correct me with data from Zogby or somewhere else if I am wrong.

So they're interesting, but not very good at predicting a fluid situation right now.

[HFishbine]

1. If

you check the Survey USA site, they have studies that purport to show that their methodology is more accurate over time than other pollsters. Everyone seems to have blown it in Iowa. Not standing up for SurveyUSA here, just noting that they have emperical data that shows a greater degree of predictive accuracy for them than other pollsters.

[spooky3]

2. well, then, I think this makes my point even more strongly.

If they are in general more accurate than others, and they were completely off on Iowa, then we need to be cautious about relying on polls for NH and other states.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Political polls have gotten much worse and MOE is crap

Response rates are indeed way down. Things like Caller ID and cell phone-only customers are new obstacles that pollsters have no clue how to weigh or get around. The sample size is obscenely low and not necessarily representative. Yet pollsters still apply the old 4 to 5 percent MOE and act like it's valid.

I'm in a political betting pool every election year with 15 other guys. The ones whose predictions mirror the polls are always paying the rest of us.

[Indiana Democrat]

4. Only when they say what you want.

Otherwise it's just "Propaganda".

Uh huh...yeah, that's it...

[Bread and Circus]

5. I wonder the same thing....the "polls" missed the mark by a mile...

Seems as if they suck to me.

However, our lazy fatass media wouldn't know what to
do if they had to focus on the issues instead of the "horserace".