Preliminary NH predictions for fun thread

[windansea]

The poll numbers are fluid...theres a debate this thursday...anything can happen...take your best guess!

Current ARG numbers:

3-Day Results 1/16-18 1/17-19 1/18-20
Clark 20% 19% 18%
Dean 28% 28% 26%
Edwards 8% 8% 9%
Gephardt 3% 3% 2%
Kerry 19% 20% 24%
Kucinich 1% 2% 1%
Lieberman 6% 7% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 15% 13% 13%

My guess:

Kerry 32%
Clark 26%
Dean 22%
Edwards 16%


:kick:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. My Guess:

Kerry-31%
Clark-24%
Dean-21%
Edwards-17%
Lieberman-4%
Others-3%

[windansea]

2. we think alike!

:thumbsup:

[Redneck Socialist]

7. My turn.

Clark 28%
Dean 26%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 12%
Lieberman 6%
Other 4%

[feckerman]

3. Hmm - Kerry is going to cut into Clark more

Kerry 31 %
Dean 24 %
Clark 21 %
Edwards 20 %

[spooky3]

4. welcome feckerman! I was so far off with the last poll I shouldn't waste

your time, but I will anyway :-):

Kerry 34%
Dean 21%
Clark 17%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 11%
everyone else splits the rest

[windansea]

5. quite possible

I'm unsure if Dean 2nd or 3rd...polls later this week should help know better...or Dean could pull out a win...who knows?

[adadem]

10. Possibly n/t

[Democrats unite]

6. One thing is for sure...

I'll bet we don't see no 50+% predictions like we did in the Iowa prediction threads!

[windansea]

8. so put up some numbers Dems unite

I want to see more predictions before more polls come out

[Democrats unite]

9. I will after the Debate...

I do need a gauge to go by. I try not to shoot from the hip (doesn't always work though LOL!).

[adadem]

11. If there is a bigger

drop for Dean I'll bet it's because of his rant on Monday. I'm thinking Edwards may beat him again.

[creativelcro]

12. Dean will win this.

[windansea]

14. so put up a number n/t

[windansea]

13. that's possible too

I don't know how much JE's got going in NH...I think he will concentrate more on SC

[ACPS65]

15. What you said.

n/t

[DJcairo]

16. The Dean-Clark battle for second is the thing to watch.

At this point I don't see how Kerry loses NH, but being a Kerry supporter since last summer, I know how apparent success can turn quickly against you.
Second place for Dean finishes him. I think you will see Dean opponents (aside from Edwards and Kerry) go after him on Thursday because as Donna Brazile said this morning on CNN "They smell blood in the water and they want to finish Dean off in NH".

I'm hoping Dean stays strong enough to block a second place finish by Clark. However, at this point I'm going to say:

Final results:

Kerry 47%
Dean 21%
Clark 18%
Edwards 10%
Lieberman 4%


This ends both the Clark and Dean candidacies, not too mention Lieberman. A strong Kerry is NOT what the Clark people want. That is beyond any doubt.

[Democrats unite]

18. Although I like Kerry also...

Kerry should fear Clark in the South & for Good reason. I will sayClark will finish in the top 3 & thats all he needs to start heading south.

[windansea]

19. a Clark 3rd in NH just the beginning

a 2nd would be fantastic

[waldenx]

17. AIPAC 32% DLC 26% Corporations 22% Hope for progress 0%

the end.

[windansea]

20. Dean supporter??

or just pessimistic??

[Adjoran]

21. The trend indicates

a strong Kerry surge, the "bounce" from Iowa.

If Dean can win, he could claim the "comeback" honors and regain momentum - BUT he has to beat Kerry by more than a point or two to do it.

If I have to predict today:

Kerry 28
Dean 24
Clark 19
Edwards 12
Lieberman 9
Others 8

But that could certainly change, depending on tomorrow's debate, which has become the most important of the season so far.

[windansea]

22. right..this debate will be huge

we'll do another prediction thread after

[DancingBear]

23. Here's mine

while hanging from the limb:

Kerry - 33%
Clark - 24%
Dean - 23%
Edwards - 13%
Lieberman - 5%
Kucinich - 2%

[plurality]

24. para me

Dean 28%
Kerry 25%
Edwards 18%
Clark 16%
Kucinich 8%
Lieberman 5%

[Meshuga]

25. My guess for NH

Kerry-32%
Clark-23%
Dean-21%
Edwards-18%
Lieberman-3%
Others-3%

[mohc]

26. Hmm

Kerry 35%
Dean 18%
Edwards 17%
Clark 14%

[HFishbine]

27. Panthers by 3

And...

Dean: 32
Kerry: 29
Clark: 14
Lieberman: 12
Edwards: 12
Kucinich: 1

[windansea]

29. totally wrong!!

Panthers by 6....:)

[HFishbine]

31. Okee Doke

Two Kasey kicks.

[windansea]

32. easy as pie n/t

[SpiralHawk]

28. Predictions! Yahoo! My favorite: Bush embarassed in NH Primary

I was hoping someone would ask.

(You are welcome to copy or forward this).

High up on the flank of a massive mountain in Franconia Notch, NH -- the Old Man of the Mountain lost his face - literally - on May 3, 2003, the day after President George W. Bush paraded across the deck of the U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, and declared "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq.

I was struck by the sequence of events. Bush parades on Abe Lincoln deck, then the Old Man of the Mountain loses face immediately thereafter. What's going on here? Is the mountain trying to tell us something?

Bush Struts Carrier Deck in Flight Suit - May 2, 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2993415.stm

Old Man Loses Face - May 3, 2003:
http://gonewengland.about.com/cs/nhhistory/l/bloldmanofmtn.htm

For Granite Staters -- and for all who had ever seen him -- the collapse of the Old Man's face was a first-class tragedy because the Old Man was a symbol of honesty, dignity, and honor. He seemed eternal.

I always thought of the Old Man's profile as embodying the same qualities as Old "Honest Abe" Lincoln, whose profile is so familiar to us from the penny. So I was deeply saddened to see him "lose face," and could not help but note that it came right after Bush pulled what was basically a PR stunt on the deck of our nation's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

What right did he have to celebrate and "Declare Victory"? Hundreds of our soldiers have died and been grievously wounded since that day, not to mention the ongoing misery for their families at home and the families in Iraq.

At the time I was inclined to take this monumental loss of the Old Man's face in the Granite State as some sort of cosmic sign that the heavens frowned upon Bush's hollow boasting.

After all, as we now know the Iraq war is based on made-up stories. Iraq had no WMDs, and no connection to the tragedy that befell America on 9/11. This is apparently a war of aggression and conquest. That's why our young men and women have their lives on the line in Iraq. it has little to do with our national defense or our true honor. It has a lot to do with power and oil.

Now that I have read Sevethson's essay about the candidacy of John Buchanan in the NH Republican primary, I see things in a different light. I see the loss of face of the Old Man of the Mountain as a possible omen that G.W. Bush may well lose face before the voters of NH.

Will Bush be surprised during the NH primary? We shall see.

Here's Seventhson's discussion thread on the NH Republican candidacy of John Buchanan against G. W. Bush.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=980708

Buchanan's campaign -- and his research -- are sincere, and worthy of every voter's consideration.


John Buchanan “Campaign Manifesto”
Issues, Questions & Answers -- January 1, 2004

WHY I’M RUNNING

A CHALLENGE TO
THE PRESS & THE PUBLIC.

Web site at http://www.johnbuchanan.org

[windansea]

30. cool post

but this thread is about the Dem NH primary and predictions

[adamrsilva]

33. New Herald poll shows Kerry taking huge lead

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=158578

If accurate my guess would be:

Kerry
Clark
Dean

[SpiralHawk]

34. Kerry's going to take NH

he's got the Big Mo

[paulk]

35. I'm going out on a limb...

Kerry - 45% I think Kerry will win big. The "native son" vote will come home.

Edwards - 21% I counted him out in Iowa - I won't make that mistake again.

Clark - 19% His relative inexperience on the campaign trail will hurt him against Edwards.

Dean - 10% The wheels are coming off...

Lieberman - 5% Who cares?


Of course, I could be completely wrong - I only got Kerry right in Iowa...

[BootinUp]

36. Here goes

Kerry 35%
Clark 30%
Dean 15%
Edwards 15%

[windansea]

37. I like it...

new ARG poll numbers available