ARG 1/21 Kerry up Clark down Edwards up Dean down

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3-Day Results  	1/16-18 1/17-19 1/18-20
Clark 	        20% 	19% 	18%
Dean 	        28% 	28% 	26%
Edwards 	8% 	8% 	9%
Gephardt 	3% 	3% 	2%
Kerry 	        19% 	20% 	24%
Kucinich 	1% 	2% 	1%
Lieberman 	6% 	7% 	7%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13% 	13%
	  		
Sample size 	617 	617 	718
	  		
Democrats 	432 	436 	511
Undeclared 	185 	181 	207
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29%     29%

Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points

 Beyond Ballot Preference - January 21, 2004

The sample size was increased to 302 completed interviews on
January 20.

While Howard Dean has a 2 percentage-point lead over John
Kerry in the 3-day average, Kerry has a 1 percentage-point
lead in the 2-day average (sample size of 508 likely
Democratic primary voters) and Kerry has a 5 percentage-point
lead in the one-day sample on January 20 (the sample size of
302 likely Democratic voters, theoretical margin of error ± 6
percentage points). Also, from January 19 to January 20,
Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point and John Edwards is up 3
percentage points. There is no change for Joe Lieberman.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[boxster]

1. As many people have pointed out, the undecideds are going to make

a big difference. This is a huge plus for Kerry if Iowa is any indication. Unfortunately, it might mean bad news for my #1 - Clark.

Give this thing another couple of days and it will be very interesting!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Clark is my Number 1 too and Kerry is second. I would like to...

see a President Clark or a President Kerry. They will make Rove crap in his pants. Contrary to popular belief, Kerry is not some wishy-washy ding dong, he's only that on the Iraq War. When push comes to shove, he's the fighter that we need to take back our country this fall. Just ask William Weld about what a fighter he is!

[Cocoa]

2. Gep hanging in there

looks like there's some bitter enders out there in NH. :-)

[SW FL Dem]

4. Its a 3 day poll

and includes 2 days before Gep bowed out.

The explanation at the bottom is even more interesting, the results from yesterday put Kerry ahead of Dean, Clark is
up one and Edwards is up 3.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. This doesn't show the shift

from Dean to undecided that Zogby talked about yesterday:

Pollster John Zogby: In the one night of polling (Tuesday) after the Iowa caucus, Kerry actually led Dean by 2 points. Clark has slid a point a day, since Sunday, significantly. As Dean drops, undecided jumped to 20 points on Tuesday alone. This is not unusual, as voters re-think their support for a candidate; they often shift to undecided first.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=787

[Cuban_Liberal]

6. The *other* story: Clark's slow slide.

I predicted this, and I predict it will continue.

[tameszu]

8. I predict that the Thursday debate will utterly scramble this

and almost all other predictions. That will be the new Mo' creator.

Anyone who does badly in that debate (including possibly Clark--I admit that it is not a good format for him) will slide badly. Anyone who does well will shoot up. The bar is lowest for Kerry and highest for Clark.

If Clark is smart, he will keep doing what he is doing previously and not attack--I just hope that he'll be able to respond to attacks gracefully and to look and sound presidential and inspiring.

[Cuban_Liberal]

9. I agree.

NH is still very much an 'anything can happen' state. :)

[windansea]

10. uh...and your prediction for Iowa??

was that correct also??

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. Ancient history.

next! :P

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. In other words, you were totally wrong? lol

[Cuban_Liberal]

13. IOW, who gives a rat's ass.

Just because you don't pick the right Lotto numbers today doesn't mean you won't tomorrow. :P

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. With such high-sounding rhetoric, you could be a Howard Dean speechwriter

lol

[windansea]

15. here's a chance to redeem

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=155715

[Bertrand]

7. This is i think the 4th poll dupe that youve done

Why is that?