Why NH can't be decisive

[DrBB]

-Dean has a lot of cash and good organization well beyond NH. If he shows in the top three (likely enough), he goes on.

-Kerry can do himself some good here, but has yet to confront the South where Clark and Edwards are presumed strong. Even a first-place showing is not a lock for him.

-Clark and Edwards are presumed strong in the South, so nothing is decided until we see how they fare after NH. A second or third for either of them is okay.

Caveats:
-A third-place showing for Dean in NH will be a near death blow.
-A third-place showing for Kerry in NH will be a near death blow (highly unlikely).
-A first place for Clark (unlikely) is a major upset and launches him powerfully into the south.
-A first place for Edwards (unlikely) is a major upset and launches him powerfully into the south.

And...
-A third-place showing for Clark in NH is still not bad and keeps him in the hunt.
-A third-place showing for Edwards in NH is good and keeps him in the hunt.

Just my amateur armchair analysis.....

[Kathleen04]

1. Agreed..

I think the top 4 are in this for the long haul, regardless of shifts in momentum...unless someone runs out of $$.

[Name removed]

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