Carville to Dean: Win NH or go home

[ringmastery]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-newhampshire21jan21,1,7727684.story?coll=la-home-headlines

WASHINGTON - On the night before the Iowa caucuses, James Carville had a prediction so dramatic as to seem reckless: The wave building behind Sens. John F. Kerry and John Edwards was so big that each would win more than 30% of the delegates at stake. Carville, the campaign manager for Bill Clinton in 1992, proved to be dead-on.

Now Carville has an equally stark forecast for Howard Dean in New Hampshire: Win or go home.

The Dean campaign insists it has the money, the institutional support and the grass-roots army to soldier on in the presidential race no matter what happens in New Hampshire next Tuesday. Dean, the frontrunner in fundraising and the national polls for months, made that case in his frenzied concession speech in Des Moines on Monday night.

But after his collapse in Iowa, Dean faces a situation his supporters could not have imagined a few weeks ago: Either win in New Hampshire or accelerate a downward spiral that could unravel his campaign.

[NashVegas]

1. With Friends Like That

Who needs Rove?

[IndianaGreen]

2. Carville said today that Lieberman was a great candidate

and he was upset that so many Democrats did not support Lieberman, and were actually mean to him.

Looks like Mary has put the spell on Jim-bo.

[deminflorida]

12. Well I like James but he needs to take the sour crayfish out of

that damn gumbo he's cooking there.

Lieberman, you've got to be shitting me....they'll bury his ass face down on top of Strom Thurman along will Zell Miller.

[polpilot]

3. Dean supporters has no connection with Carville. Many Dean

supporters, myself included, are only involved in this election because of Dean. The other candidates hold no interest. Dropping out is not in the interest of the movement and I believe many understand that that the Dean supporters are 'outside' the establishment demo party and with the demise of Dean we will continue on with our lives with no representation as it was before Dean.

Dean '04...

[HuckleB]

10. As a Dean supporter, I acknowledge that he has energized many folks

who previously didn't participate. However, there is no reason for those folks to leave if Dean loses. Their energy can transform the country through other deeds, including supporting the eventual nominee. The reality of primaries is that most of us don't get to have our first choice as nominee. It just works out that way. That's OK. We did our part, now let's get Bush out of office.

I hope it's Dean who kicks Bush and company out the door, but I'll be there to help his current opponents if that's the outcome, too. I hope you will follow suit.

[BearFlagDemocrat]

96. Sad reality is...

Many of these people felt abandoned during the "Old Gore" 2000 candidacy, and they're going to feel just as abandoned in 2004, depending on how the new candidate works it.

[Julien Sorel]

13. But isn't Dean supposed to be the representative

of the 'Democratic wing of the Democratic Party?' Somehow your statement and the rhetoric coming from Dean and many of his supporters doesn't add up. If you're a True Democrat, you would be able to support at least some of the other candidates. 'Dean or nothing' is simply petulance, but then, that's a word that well-characterizes much of the Dean campaign.

[mitchum]

15. Don't expect an answer

Maybe some rhetoric, but not an answer

[polpilot]

94. Mitchum, see above post...your ed continues.

Dean '04...

[HazMat]

64. Right-on. That's why they've alienated so many

and took a beating in Iowa. It's petulance, anger, and irrationality of Dean's fervent supporters. The same thing that draws them to Dean is the same thing that puts off a lot of regular voters who see something that resembles a cult more than it does a presidential campaign.

[polpilot]

93. LBJ was the last democratic president who has adequately represented

me. I only noticed the race because of Dean and have no animosity towards the other 'democratic' nominee seekers and no I'm not 'a true democrat'. I haven't participated in the election process since the mid 80's, am a political science major from the 70's, and while I haven't 'seen it all' I've seen much. I value my own credibility too much to 'support' the others left in this field and enjoy the freedom of criticizing both parties as well as foreign governments.

I didn't vote for Saddam but freely criticize him as well I will the eventual winner of this election. So cheer and wish and if your demo candidate wins watch while nothing occurs and on we go...

Dean '04...

[deminflorida]

16. Would you consider Dean holding Bush by his collar while

Clark kicks his ass out the white house door?

[liberalnurse]

18. You speak for me as well.

If Dean is not on the 2004 Election Ticket.....I'll just write it in and cast my vote anyways.

[NNN0LHI]

71. I am sure that statement will give Karl Rove a woody n/t

[HuckleB]

4. So if you win NH you're the nominee, and everyon else goes home?

I knew my vote would be meaningless in this primary season, but dang, Carville is really telling us all that we've got no say. It's all up to our pals in NH.

[kiahzero]

51. Actually, no

He said that if Dean loses NH, he has no shot of being nominee.

Dean lose NH -> Dean not nominee

The only thing that is logically equivalent to that statement is the contrapositive:

Dean nominee -> Dean not lost NH

Or, in common parlance, "If Dean is the nominee, then Dean wins New Hampshire"

[ProfessorPlum]

5. Dean to Carville: STFU /kidding, of course

Dean has a whole pile of money and the ability to stay in the race as long as HE feels he is viable.

There seem to be other candidates who are slightly less viable than Dean right now who are still in the race, no?

What is Carville afraid of?

[deminflorida]

6. This applies more to Lieberman I think.....

But Carville is pretty sharp.....

Dean won't go anywhere, however...he'll stay, but he'll burn out before Super Tuesday. If somebody were smart they would begin negotiations with him now for a running mate position. Dean as an early running mate would close this thing very quickly.

[BearFlagDemocrat]

97. I'd vote for a Clark/Dean ticket...

In a heartbeat. I like a Dean/Clark ticket better, but whatever. I consider the two a Dream team that would be unstoppable.

I'm pretty evenly split on my support for Dean and Clark as candidates, but a lot of Dean-bashing Clark "supporters" here are really putting me off.

[Sly Kal]

7. SK to Carville

STFU you has been mediawhore.

[auburnblu]

8. If he comes in 4th he might need to think about it

Or even a weak third. But if he's in a close third or second, why drop out.

[BobbyJay]

9. I agree. Why stay in past NH? Lieberman should drop out too.

Dean has no chance unless he wins NH. Staying in any longer would do nothing but hurt other candidates and drag this out longer than it needs to be. Carville sees the big picture.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

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[arewethereyet]

14. he's right if he doesn't, he's just spending money

and Lieberman is already DOA

[BobbyJay]

19. It just unnecessarily drags it out.

Instead of the Party getting wholly behind John Kerry (or whoever) and focusing on Bush and the convention, the candidates spend unneeded time attacking each other and spending money in more primaries. If Dean doesn't place first in NH, he has no realistic chance at winning the nomination. Staying in any time longer would do nothing but harm. Carville sees the big picture.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

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[molly]

21. Are you challenging THE MAN Carville? My Hero?

[Walt Starr]

27. Absolutely

He's a freakshow.

[molly]

28. Freakshow? You mean Dean - right?

[Walt Starr]

29. Nope, I'm talking about the bald headed idiot who sleeps with the enemy

:evilgrin:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. Freakshow....

Pot

Kettle

Black


After Dean's performance on Tuesday night there's probably a place for him on the WWF....

He's too small to be a wrestler but he'd make a hell of a smack talking manager....

[ShaneGR]

43. Don't bother

In general, he's not representative of most Dean people I talk to in the real world. They like Dean, but not to the point where they will make enemies of all their fellow Democrats.

[lurk_no_more]

20. If dean doesn't place at least a strong third

he'll be just another also ran, he may continue, but you can stick a fork in him, he's done.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[GalleryGod]

68. 3rd?? After a 35 Point% LEAD!? More like he needs 30+% to stay

"viable"...otherwise like the Wicked Witch of the West...

"I'm melt-ing!"

Oh, BTW :nopity: :nopity: :nopity:

[aquart]

22. Mary Matalin's husband is not my political advisor.

[9119495]

23. me to Carville:

Go phuck yourself. Your time has passed...and I won't use Imphone anymore so there!

[LuminousX]

24. Me to Carville: What have you done for the party lately?

Help oust any Venezualan president's lately?

[Samantha]

25. Carville is a talking head for the Stop Dean movement

An an insider to the Clinton circle of influence, when Carville speaks he represents the New Dems, read DLC, side of the Democratic fence. Lieberman is on that same side of the fence.

I would guess that Carville's accurate prediction is an indication that he is privy to the strategy that promotes the DLC'ers, since he helps develop it. Lieberman did not participate in Iowa, and I doubt seriously he wins New Hampshire. For Carville to publicly suggest that Dean should go home should he lose New Hampshire, while proclaiming the greatness of Lieberman's campaign, is sheer political hypocrisy. Lieberman is one of Clinton's best friends, and he toes the political DLC line like no other candidate. A DLC win in this election means big bucks to strategists like Carville who help execute it, not to mention influence it.

If Carville has such an accurate political crystal ball, how come it so badly malfuctioned in Carville's predictions during the 2002 elections?

I have no idea how Dean can legitimately and effectively discount the DLC influence in this election, but I hope he's giving it some serious sober thought. I tried to alert Dean proponents a few days ago with a thread entitled "Stop Dean Steaming Full Speed Ahead in Iowa," but few actually stop to analyze the points I was trying to make. It's very obvious to me, I believe, because it's so many shades of the "Gore" treatment it practically leaps out. I hope Dean proponents will combat this if for no other reason than principle.

It's a problem ....

[GalleryGod]

69. Specious,At Best

Sow it. Reap it.

[Snivi Yllom]

92. definitely

Stop Dean Movement, wide spread and attacking from all angles.

[HalfManHalfBiscuit]

26. After he loses NH he will certainly lose SC

Then he is done.

Mabye he can revive primal scream therapy after that.

Or start a public speaking seminar.

[Tinoire]

32. Maybe WE could even start a new party!

Something progressive where right-wing talking points need not, as the advertisement says, apply. The same would probably hold true for anything half & half- Carville's beloved DLC for example.

[ShaneGR]

46. I was wondering how long it would be for some of the Greens to talk of 3rd

Really, I could never understand why they would support Dean, he's almost as centrist as Lieberman.

[Tinoire]

59. I'm not a Green Sgr2 but due the right-wing talking points

I'm seeing around here, I just may become one soon.

For the other, I don't believe there are that many Greens supporting Dean. A sprinkling of suburban Greens many but I don't know any hard-core Greens who would go for Dean.


On edit. That's not true. I know 2 at work. Passionate Dean supporters but they're 2 well-to-do hard-working lesbians who are determined to get Bush out and think Dean is the pit-bull to do it.

[Tinoire]

30. Tinoire to Carville- Go home and take your trailer park trash DLC with you

Don't leave a god-damn tent peg behind.

I've hated you ever since the day you went and tried to sell your PR skills to Israel so they could continue with the Palestinian-bashing.

It's been down-hill ever since with each day revealing what you really are inside.

Screw you A-hole.

[RafterMan]

70. Uhmmm...

Carville supported Barak over Netanyahu.

Barak's peace effort had many shortcomings, but compared to Netanyahu?

Come on.

[Lurking Dem]

86. The DLC = "Trailer park trash"?

Carville sold PR skills to "Palestinian bash"? He's an "a-hole"??

What are Democrats supposed to be to get any respect from you and if you agree with nothing in the current Democratic Party platform then how is it that throwing rhetorical bricks through the Party's windows is going to change that?

[newsguyatl]

31. newsguyatl to carville: learn proper english,

get off your knees, and wipe your mouth.

[Joe the Revelator]

33. Me to DU: Carville is a Political Genius

Its amazing how you all turn on your own when what they say doesn't fit what you want to hear.

[newsguyatl]

34. would a political genius

marry that hag of a wife?


thanks.

[Joe the Revelator]

35. wow

sometimes, some people, need to seperate their politics from there personal life and who they fall in love with. This is akin to questioning how a christian can marry a jew.

[IndianaGreen]

36. Would a political genius say that we are being mean to Lieberman?

Carville never mentioned the ugly and mean things that Lieberman has said about the rank-and-file. It is always the base's fault!

[Joe the Revelator]

37. I don't agree with his stance on Lieberman

but his support for one DEMOCRATIC canidate, who carried our banner last election, does not an idiot make.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

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[Joe the Revelator]

50. I don't represent my canidate...

he does a fine job himself. I just think it pathetic that as soon as a democrat speaks out against a certain canidate he's labeled an idiot and becomes a subject of personal attacks.

[Tinoire]

60. Carville was never really one of our own.

Neither is Begala. None of that TV DLC crowd has ever been part of DU's own.

Our heroes here run more along the line of Mike Ruppert and Noam Chomsky.

Carville- urgh. Where did you get that?

And I'm not even a Dean supporter.

[Jim Sagle]

90. "Our heroes here...more along the line of Mike Ruppert and Noam Chomsky."

Speak for yourself and not the rest of us. Nowhere Chumpsky ain't nuthin' but an Uncle Jake.

[molly]

77. You noticed that too?

:toast:

[SaddenedDem]

88. Me to ColdnGrey....

James Carville created Zell Miller who handed him off to Bill Clinton. 'Nough said.

[Nicholas_J]

38. Considering

That the latest Zogby polls for New Hampshire are mirroring the Zogby polls for Iowa one week before the Iowa caucuses, with Kerry knocking Clarke out of second place, and now being statistically even with Dean, Carville is making a quite valid statement.

Kerry catches up to Dean in one day, after being as far behind Dean in New Hampshire yesterday as he was behind Dean in Iowa a week earlier.

[HazMat]

67. And considering that the events of Iowa

haven't really set in yet. Most political analysts/pollsters say we will get the real picture no earlier than Thursday for a variety of reasons, mainly due to the polling methodology and the news taking time to fully saturate.

[paulk]

39. Carville is correct

Dean has to win New Hampshire to remain a viable candidate.

Continuing his candidacy would only serve to divide the party.

Al Gore's endorsement was based around the idea that Democrats needed to get behind our nominee at the earliest possible time - if Dean loses in New Hampshire it will have become pretty clear that Dean won't be the nominee.

[wabeewoman]

41. uhhh, huh

I'm sure that is what he advised Clinton too. Didn't he lose both before he went on to win??

[paulk]

49. This is not 1992

Every election is different.

Dean had the most money, the largest organization, and more media exposure than any other candidate going into Iowa. Yet 82% of the electorate supported someone else.

Dean had a 40 pt. lead in New Hampshire, a lead that the newest Zogby poll shows has all but disappeared. Clinton (a southerner) came from behind to make it a close race against native son Paul Tsongas. A different situation altogether.

[windansea]

83. correct n/t

[Ramsey]

48. Carville lost my respect long ago

His tenure on Crossfire has been an embarrassment. He's just another establishment lackey. I am totally fed up with him and his ilk. That's exactly why I support Dean.

Shut up and go home yourself, James.

[paulk]

52. Carville doesn't need your respect

to make accurate political assessments.

It's what he does for a living, and he's more often right than wrong.
If the Democratic party plans to win this November, listening to Mr. Carville is a good idea.

[ShaneGR]

40. Because of the primaries that follow New Hampshire Dean must win

South Carolina and Missouri are the states with the biggest delegate counts. And it looks like Gephardt is going to back Edwards. If Dean doesn't win New Hampshire, reinvigorating his supporters in the process, he's toast. But, I will concede that he could stick it out in hopes of a good Super Tuesday showing. Unfortunately, by then the winners of all the other primaries will have a lot of momentum.

Dean can say his campaign is about a people's movement, but if people don't vote for him then it's vaporware.

[askew]

42. James Carville needs to shut up.

Seriously. So, if Lieberman, Edwards, Clark, Sharpton, and Kucinich all don't win NH either they should also drop out, because they will not have finished first in any primary yet either. This is why the Democratic Party is the minority party. If we spent half our energy and time fighting our real enemy, the GOP, we would stand a chance of regaining the majority. Instead we waste our time with petty bickering and infighting.

[zulchzulu]

45. Carville's comment at Kerry afterparty in Des Moines

I was there (just got back) and was standing near James when he was watching the returns on the tube. He screamed in his loudest Cajun-laced "Put a fork in Dean's butt! He's done!"

The place roared.

[molly]

82. James is never at a loss for words

for sure.

[bhunt70]

47. I agree.

And many of you also did when Dean = Gephardt and New Hampshire = Iowa.

[shoopnyc123]

53. Carville's done...

...even with a DLC candidate. And he knows it. The truth is, HE has no base now, due to HIS and THIER lack of planning. Dean, I must admit, did do that. He got them out of the taking things for granted state. AND, if not as President, Dean could go on to do great things...

[Snivi Yllom]

91. Dean to Carville

your track record aint exactly been stellar lately...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

54. Carville's the DLC's mouthpiece.

And, his pronouncements should be treated with the contempt that both deserve.

[mikehiggins]

55. Voters to Carville (and all the pundits): STFU

The whole commentator/poll/pundit thing has long outlived its value to the public discourse. These puny little pissant "critics" who sit back on their laurels of columnist or editor or political operative do nothing but regurgitate information that's already been chewed up and swallowed by their lookalike peers on network and cable tv, ad nauseum.

Carville, Begala, Novak, Carlson, O'Rielly, Hannity, colmes, Matthews and all the lesser lights whose names don't matter because they're unemployed or on FAUX (the WWE of Journalism) NEWS should be dumped and no one would notice or care. Better to listen to Barney the Purple Dinosaur 24/7 rather than these assholes.

Ship them all off to Siberia and who the hell would miss them?

Let them try telling Putin how to run the country.

Let's settle this election the old fashioned way. In the streets with canvassing and GOTF and all the rest. These guys are as guilty of putting Bush into office as any GOPer and whoever gets into office this November the first thing he should do is put Attila the Hun in charge of the FCC and tell him to go out and pillage Time-Warner and Cox Cable and Viacom and all the rest.

One tv station in a market or one newspaper in a market or one radio station in a market but no more of these interlocking chains of money grubbing whores.

Ahem. Just had to get that off my mind.

[IndianaGreen]

56. Hear, hear!

I salute you for a fine post!

:toast:

Now, let me go back to the Martha Stewart case, followed by Jacko, Peterson, Britney, Kobe...

[David Zephyr]

61. Bravo!

Joining in with IG to salute you and your thoughts.

[_NorCal_D_]

100. I wholly agree.

I've about had it with the media in general.

[MercutioATC]

57. Me to Carville: You're beginning to annoy me.

Hey, I generally like Carville, but he's presented himself as an obviously non-Dean supporter and he seems to be unable to let things progress as they will.

Thanks, James...I'll take your views under consideration.

[Adjoran]

58. Carville is right

Dean can soldier on with his money, but he has little practical chance if he loses NH.

The media will speak of him only as "the hapless Howard Dean" and his "faltering campaign." The Feb 3 states are mostly in the Sun Belt, not necessarily hospitable territory for the Dean message if his position as frontrunner is knocked off.

Not only that, but he really needs to win with 30% or more in order to recapture any meaningful momentum.

The single biggest reason for Dean's huge money lead is the reticence of potential donors to give money to someone who will lose. Dean looked golden a week or so ago; now his vulnerability has been exposed, and other viable candidates will see wallets begin to open for them.

[Name removed]

62. Deleted message

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[MercutioATC]

65. I'll respectfully disagree...

...and object to your inane characterization of one of our Democratic candidates.

[HazMat]

63. Carville knows a little something about getting a Dem in the WH.

If Dean wins NH (unlikely) or places a strong second (still unlikely with Clark and Edwards in the mix now behind Kerry) it would make sense to go onto SC.

But if Dean takes a beating in NH he should definitely call it quits. Carville is absolutely correct. If Dean loses NH badly like Gep lost IA he should bow out gracefully like Gep did, for the sake of the party and it's goal of getting Bush out of the WH.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

66. This is what I have to say to James Carville

Stop sending me these goddamned DNC fundraising letters signed James Carville!! I've been getting 3 a week for the last 2 months! The last thing I need is one more piece of paper telling me what an asshole Bush is. I know. I'm giving what I can -- but the more I'm asked, the more likely I am to give to someone else.


As far as Carville's comments -- folks, grow a skin already! It's like you are one giant raw nerve.

[BuelahWitch]

72. James Carville is a hypocrite

His candidate Bill Clinton came in THIRD in NH in 1992. So looks like ol' James needs a history lesson...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. Clinton Finished Second

In New Hampshire and exceded expectations...


And he lost it to a candidate from a neighboring state...


And Clinton didn't do a WWF shtick after his loss....

[CWebster]

73. Sorta like Clinton should have? nt

[onecitizen]

76. Yo James..........

HBO says for you to win ratings or go home! HA! How does it feel?

[markus]

78. Carville's wrong, for once

No one is going to wrap up this nomination before March. As long as a candidate is making a good showing (top three) and has funds, they will stay in the race. To do otherwise would be foolish.

And to the extent Dean and some of his supporters want to remake the party and the Congress and not just win the White House, the longer they keep their people engaged the better.

The way my state party is treating Dean's supporters, they might as well put up directions to Green HQ on their front door.

[libview]

79. does anyone think Dean would make a run as an

independent if he loses the nomination?

[blm]

80. Carville wants a Kerry/Edwards ticket.

He's been telegraphing that for days.

[molly]

81. Sounds like a winner to me!

[MarkTwain]

84. You are absolutely....

.. Right! Thanks, James, for as always being so deftly on target.

If Dean can not prevail on his home turf, then he will never prevail against the likes of the Rove machine.

Something which many of us here have known for a long, long time.

[John_H]

85. The Wacky Dean Media World: Scarlborough, Friend! Carville, Idiot!

[Cheswick2.0]

87. Carville is an idiot

He thinks DLC is the way to win. He may have been right in 1992. But it's not 1992 anymore.

[eissa]

89. I really like James

I saw a repeat of him on C-Span (can't remember the location, maybe a church?) and he was really great. But I just can't swallow this -- Dean should drop out, but not Lieberman? Just because Joe is one your DLC darlings? Come on! Mary must be witholding sex unless he toes the DLC/Repuke line.

[Capn Sunshine]

95. Carville's work in Venezuela against the elected gov't

as whore for hire to the petrochemical interests, pretty much DQ's anything he has to say to me.

Now,his opinion will always be suspect.

[tryanhas]

98. Okay, for the people who say they will leave...

...if Dean is not the nominee, answer this question for me.

What part of "the establishment" is John Edwards a member of?

Last time I checked, he is more of an outsider than Dean is. As many years as Dean served as Governor of Vermont, he is just as entrinched in Washington and with some of the special interests as the people who have been there for decades.

Why?

Because he had to be to get a lot of things done in Vermont...

[tryanhas]

99. Carville is right

NH is a must win for Dean.

If he doesn't win there, can he really expect to win SC, Oklahoma, NM, Missouri, and other states like that?

His best shot would have been Michigan because of internet voting or Delaware, but even his shots there will be diminished if he doesn't win the state that he was ahead by 30 in just a short time ago...

[kentuck]

101. I know Carville is the professional, but I disagree...

No doubt, these are some rough waves for Dean, but who knows, Kerry may make a gaffe in the next couple of weeks. And time has a way of putting a different perspective on matters. I think Dean should stay at least thru Feb 2nd primaries. He has put too much effort into his campaign to simply surrender. No, he should not drop out after NH, unless he finishes 4th or worse. He does need a first or second place finish.