Should Democrats be worried about the "Baby Gap"?

[bluestateguy]

There recently was a very good article in the American Conservative magazine (an anti-Bush, paleoconservative publication) about a problem that Democrats may face in the coming years: the so called "Baby Gap". The magazine showed that Bush carried, in many cases overwhelmingly, the states with the highest white fertility rates. On the other hand, Kerry won in states with the lowest white fertility rates. In recent years we have seen an ever larger "marriage gap" that reveals a major political rift between people who are married, and more likely to vote Republican, and un-married people who prefer the Democrats. Democrats now rely even more on gay and lesbian voters as well: Clinton won 69% of their votes in 1996, while Kerry won 77% in 2004. There is also a large gap in the voting habits of people without children verses those with children under 18. Since people commonly pass their politics on to their children, I'm wondering if this is something Democrats need to be concerned about. Perhaps all this business of courting deeply religious people is misguided. Rather, maybe it's the people with children who need to be courted, whatever their religious preferences. The American Conservative magazine article can be found here: http://www.amconmag.com/2004_12_20/cover.html. The cover of the magazine is somewhat condescending:

[Smarmie Doofus]

1. Off topic, but... re. "Kerry got 77% of L and G vote".....

Why didn't he get 99% ?! What can the other 23% possibly be thinking?!

Are they thinking at all? All the more remarkable in that this stat would have to reflect self-identified... and therefore somewhat sophisticated.. lesbians/gays.

Mystery to me. Something to do with M. Cheney, perhaps?

[EVDebs]

2. Most blue states are coastal states. Most people want to live

along the coasts, say within around 50 miles of the shorelines. Just look at



and



and then look at

http://www.census.gov/geo/landview/lv6help/coastal_cty.html

which shows that these counties make up for about 54% of the US population, and Kerry won most of these states....

The coastal problems where most people live are going to get worse, and more ignored by red-state, lower population density states, since blue states are 'donor' states when it comes to taxes.

A better coastal county map at


compared with http://www.usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/map.htm and
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

makes the importance of coastal counties even more clear. This and the fact that over half of labor force since 2000 were immigrants
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-01/nu-nia010804.php
means Republicans are keeping a 'baby gap' from being important by importing more visa-holding (and non-visa-holding) labor rather than hiring older US native-born labor.

[oneighty]

3. Baby gap

should frighten all of us. No cannon fodder, no WASPs, no consumers, no cheap labor.

Many problems. Soon women will be forced to replenish the supply. Just so they are white.

IMHO

180

[XemaSab]

4. The population

in several western, rural, states is imploding. Meanwhile the populations of many "blue" states, such as California, is increasing. Birthrates are not as significant as immigration and regional migrations.

I have many friends out here in California who didn't get along with the folks back home, and moved out here to live in a more tolerant climate.

[Telly Savalas]

5. Are there any studies...

that accurately measure the degree to which "people commonly pass their politics on to their children" or do we have to just take this guy's word for it?

There are a lot of threads on this board where people complain about their GOP parents, so obviously many Republicans fail to pass on their politics. Furthermore, it's kind of hard to believe that the conversion rate is as strong the other way. How many people with liberal parents who expose them to diverse political and cultural ideas reject it all to worship Sean Hannity?

Given that the title of the magazine is "American Conservative" it's not too big a jump to assume that it's content is total bullshit.

[KJMagic]

7. Passing on to children....

I find more people tend to reject their parents polotics libral polotics yet accept the right polotics of their parents... or atleast thats how it is here in Kentucky.

[trezic]

6. Probably not

Radical right-wingers flourish best in states with small populations. This is even true in the South. As a state's population increases, so does the need for infrastructure. As it's pretty obvious that the GOP is not the party of planning for the future (unless it's the next 10 minutes), these increasing populations will put pressure on the state governments. In 20 years or so, the GOP will likely be complaining about the leftward shift of the country.

[DaveinMD]

8. we're doing our part

our baby girl should arrive in the next two-four weeks.

[ZombieNixon]

9. Congratulations!!!

:party: :toast:

[DaveinMD]

10. thanks

she's already got her future president shirt. There is always hope for the future.