Brad Carson: Bush Popularity 'Doomed' Senate Campaign

[JI7]

could what Carson is saying been the case in the other Senate races we lost in Republican states ? because all the republican candidates sucked and the dem candidates were far superior. but if they voted on party control of senate rather than the candidates it would mean the republicans could suck and would still get support.



<Rep. Brad Carson says his campaign for U.S. Senate was doomed to fail because of President Bush's popularity and voter concerns about Democrats gaining a majority in the Senate.

Oklahoma hasn't supported a Democratic presidential candidate since backing Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Still, he said, "It took an extraordinary effort by the Republican Party and (outside special-interest groups) to win a race that should have been theirs by rights."

By the end of the race, he said, "It became Brad Carson versus George W. Bush," in a state where Bush won all 77 counties, and a race between the national parties. Toward the end, he said, people who weren't staunchly supporting one candidate or the other generally told him one of two things -- that the negative tone of the race had turned them off of both candidates or that they liked Carson but didn't want Democrats controlling the Senate.

"It was about the institutions we represented," he said. "It becomes outside of your own control. It becomes a partisan referendum. And that's what doomed us.">

http://www.channeloklahoma.com/news/3914024/detail.html

[tridim]

1. What Bush popularity?

45% support is NOT popularity.

[JI7]

this specifically refers to Oklahoma

[unblock]

2. 45% support IN OKLAHOMA?

oklahoma is solidly red. nationally, although the have had their share of democratic senators and such.

[liberalpragmatist]

3. While I'm not a fan of Carson, I think he's right

The Democratic Party label is a killer in red states. It doesn't really apply as much in races for state races, which is why Democrats are able to remain competitive in governors' races, for instance. But when it comes to races for national office, the Democratic label severely handicaps candidates. And Bush IS very popular in red states - his popular vote victory came from pretty strongly increased support in red states.

Frankly, I think that Bush's popularity and a Republican trend in red states did doom us in NC, La., and to a lesser extent, Florida. Florida was close and is still likely to be a swing state. Had Kerry won, Castor almost certainly won as well.

[RoyGBiv]

4. Excuses, excuses ...

Let's see, how many is that now. He's blamed homosexuals for pushing opposition to the gay marriage amendment, thus ensuring that fundamentalists would be out in force to vote. He's blamed the lottery question for energizing the conservative base against him. Now he's blaming Bush. How do you "blame" the leader of the opposition for YOU not doing well? Feh ...

Brad Carson lost because Brad Carson LOST. It wasn't stolen. No one was tricked. He ran an ineffectual campaign that thoroughly failed to define itself. There were countless untapped resources available to Carson, but he shunned them, fearing as he was that he might accidentally come across as opposed to Bush and his policies. Well, DUH! You're a Democrat, Carson. Or did you forget?

For those keeping score, my bitterness may stand in distinct contrast to my rhetoric prior to the election about Carson. I'm aware of that. I was trying to help him or more specifically help us not have to deal with that idiot Coburn for 6 years. But, Carson didn't want my help. I'm too liberal. As I've said before, screw 'im. He lost. It's his own fault. I hope his political career is over.

[fujiyama]

5. I'm convinced

no Democrat could have won that senate seat.

No offense to you or the other few liberals in that state, but you guys are VASTLY outnumbered.


I will say that I have a lot of admiration for those willing to stick it out and fight in such hostile territory as some of you are doing.

[RoyGBiv]

8. Not true ...

A Democrat could have won it. Democrats have won it. Carson himself could have won it. He was running on a Republican-lite platform, which is what generally wins in Oklahoma, but I'm not convinced he had to do even that. The Oklahoma Democratic Party is its own worst enemy. It fails to try to define itself as different and then why that difference makes it a better choice. It allows the Republicans to set the boundaries.

Why did Carson lose? There are many reasons, but focusing on the popularity of Bush in this state avoids addressing them. Carson didn't run on a platform that was opposed to Bush directly, and his comments about this do little to explore how he, himself, lost his own campaign.

[fujiyama]

9. I'm not going to defend Carson

I saw him once and didn't like him a whole hell of a lot. If I lived in OK, I would have had to have held my nose while voting for him.

That said, he's partly right about having a tough time winning the senate race in a presidential election - that too an election where the fundamentalist right was very mobilized. Bush is very popular in the state. The impression I get is it's almost like a cult of personality.

Just a few days before the election I had a sick feeling that we would lose most of the bright red state senate races. I would have guessed they would ride in by Bush's coattails. Unfortunately it was worse than I would have guessed.

After all Knowles couldn't beat the incompetant Murkowski in Alaska, who was appointed by her dad to her seat. Bush won that state by a margin similar to that of Oklahoma.

When a presidential candidate carries a state by some 30 points, there are bound to be coattails. Granted, I would guess that things are different in statewide races. That's probably why Dems won the governor's race just a year or two ago. BTW, how did Dems win that governor's race? I heard there was something having to do with a bill on cockfighting and that it brought out Dems, which unlikely most states, actually dominate the rural areas.

[RoyGBiv]

10. Dems and the Governor

It is not particularly unusual that a Democrat is our governor. We had Keating for eight years, but he's only the second Republican we've had since 1971. Bellmon, the other one, wasn't very well liked while he was governor from '87 - '91. (Interestingly, he'd been OK's first Republican governor in the 60's, and he wasn't liked then either.)

Henry won for several reasons. Mostly, I think, he ran a better campaign and appealed the strong populist element in OK. (Carson did this during the primary and went entirely the other direction during the general campaign.) His platform included support for a lottery, in direct opposition to the radical right, and the people came out in support of it, both during Henry's election and in the recent election during which the measure was put before a vote of the people.

As for the rural areas, it depends on which rural area you're talking about. The whole damn state is rural except for OKC and Tulsa. The eastern parts of the state tend to be more Democratic, while the north and west tend to be more Republican. Bush got his heaviest support, in proportion to the population, in the least populated areas in the north and northwest.

[Razorback_Democrat]

18. Henry also got lucky in that a 3rd party candidate sucked support

from Largent

Henry's lottery win (law) will help him and his popularity seems good in Oklahoma right now.

He might defend off a R challenge in 06.

Let's hope so!

[ShaneGR]

6. I'm sure being pro-gay would have helped him win Oklahoma

NOT

[RoyGBiv]

7. Uh, yeah, and?

Who said anything about him being "pro-gay"?

I'm talking about who he is *blaming* after the fact for his loss.

[nhc1978]

11. umm

I don't see anything in the article about him blaming gays. Where are you getting that from?

[RoyGBiv]

12. Not that article ...

He's been pounding out justifications since Nov. 3rd.

I get it mostly from things I've seen on local news and in local papers.

[The Flaming Red Head]

13. Who was he popular with? They bussed in supporters. signed loyalty oaths

and I saw a lot of W stickers on government owned vehicles. What the Hell was that all about?

[JI7]

14. majority of Bush voters thought we found wmd in Iraq

he is popular among those types. majority of his supporters also think Saddam was involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. he is popular among the ignorant.

[aprillcm]

15. Bush Approval Rating

Bushes Approval rating was 42-45 percent that is not popular by any means. Clinton during Impeachment had higher approval ratings.

[Razorback_Democrat]

17. Was it 42-45% in Oklahoma though? n/t

[Razorback_Democrat]

16. Brad Carson's problem is

Brad Carson!

He lacks charisma
He is just too wonkish for the rural folks in Oklahoma. He beat Republican challengers in his congressional district because that district was largely Carl Albert's district and is still the bluest part of Oklahoma.

Coburn is an idiot, and scary. But he came across in debates, in ads, etc. as more human and with more charisma.

Being right doesn't always win you a seat!

Coburn also killed him in ads with the "saying one thing in Oklahoma and voting another way in Washington" on issues near and dear to the heart to rednecks.

Carson came back to the state and ran for Congress and won, then he won again. He just didn't have what it took to win a statewide race yet.

IMO