OHIO Update

[demwing]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/wire/sns-ap-ohio-ballots,1,7354369.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines
"SUBSCRIPTION BASED"


COLUMBUS, Ohio — Most of the presidential election provisional ballots rejected so far in Ohio came from people who were not even registered to vote, election officials said after spending nearly two weeks poring over thousands of disputed votes.

The vast majority of provisional ballots have been legitimate, however. Of the 11 counties that have completed checking ballots, 81 percent of the ballots are valid, according to a survey Monday by The Associated Press.


<snip>

In another twist to the tally, a statewide recount of the presidential vote appears inevitable after a pair of third-party candidates said they have collected enough money to pay for it.

The recount would be conducted after the election results are certified.

The candidates said they are not trying to overturn Bush's victory in Ohio, but just want to ensure that all votes were counted properly in the face of concerns about Election Day irregularities.

"Our bottom line is to stand up for the integrity of the voting process because the voting process is the heart of the democratic process," said Blair Bobier, spokesman for Green Party candidate David Cobb.

In New Hampshire, third-party presidential candidate Ralph Nader has asked for a recount covering 11 of the state's 126 precincts that use Diebold Inc.'s Accuvote optical scanning machines to count paper ballots. Depending on the results, his campaign could ask for recounts in other states, spokesman Kevin Zeese said Monday.


******************END******************

So the real news is that only about 20% of the ballots are being tossed. That plays out to about 30K votes, and makes it impossible for Kerry to win by provisional ballot alone, even if every single provisional ballot fell for him.

Still, the recount WILL go on, and the 90K+ spolied ballots will get reviewed. Add to that the potential for changing numbers in the recount and Kerry and Edwards may have to get new change of address cards from the post office

[kuozzman]

1. 3rd time posted.. Hack The Vote!

[bri_in_austin]

2. Hope springs eternal!

[NMDemDist2]

3. thanks for the update n/t

[Spinzonner]

4. Apparently you underestimate

the activity of the Republican lawyers and their friends on SCOTUS.

It will be fascinating to see what they come up with this time to override the will of a state.

Plus, of curse, they will find a friend who is willing to halt the recounts so as not to harm 'the real winner' while they review the case. After all there is a precedent for that now.

[demwing]

6. Read The SCOTUS opinion on Bush V Gore

It neither draws from previous law, nor can it be used as precedence for future law.

No shit, it really says that.

[Spinzonner]

9. I believe that applies to the decision itself

not the halting of the recount done by Scalia - which prevented them from continuing the recount after the decision was rendered.

(Well, they actually had two whole hours)

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. OK. What happens when the recount is finished

and Kerry is the winner? The election is certified PRIOR to the recount. What does that means if Kerry is the actual winner? What happens then? What if FRAUD is found?

Thanks for the update! :hi:

[LittleClarkie]

15. Perhaps public outcry

Perhaps we wipe the word "mandate" off their lips.

Perhaps as the news of the war and other Bush administration fubars are discovered, the public outcry becomes louder as they realize they actually did vote the bum out, and are being deprived of a sane government.

At the least, I would hope if politically complicates things for them. And ultimately Watergates them to death.

I don't think we will get Kerry for prez though, much as I still want him there. I cry to think that sanity got pushed aside.

[lizzieforkerry]

7. Here is a press release I just got from Ohio Recount

VOTING IRREGULARITIES MEETING
OHIO VOTE 2004 COMMITTEE*

THURSDAY, NOV. 18, 6:30 PM

Corryville Public Library

2802 Vine Street

Cincinnati, Ohio

The public is invited to testify on voting irregularities before and during the election of 2004. Come to this meeting to testify about your experience with the November election 2004.


*Ohio Vote 2004 Committee is a non partisan grassroots network for fair and accurate elections. Also sponsored by Common Cause

Public Invited


If anyone in Butler, Hamilton, Clermont, Warren or any other county wants to come and tell their greivances PLEASE COME!

[Eloriel]

10. Lizzie -- Please post this as a new thread -- and when you do

would you PM me with the link so I don't miss it? This is great news.

[lizzieforkerry]

13. I don't know how to show links. Please advise!

[MrUnderhill]

8. Even if they go 80% for Kerry...

That's only a pickup of about 70-75k votes.

I'm not sure there are 60,000 discernable votes (especially by Ohio standards) in those spoiled ballots... let alone a net of 60k for Kerry.

It's going to take something else.

[demwing]

11. Ohio used punchcards and has a single method of discerning intent

Chads -
Up to 2 corners intact- its a vote.
3 or more corners intact - no vote.

[MrUnderhill]

12. Right. Which would presumably produce fewer discernible votes

than a system where a dimple and NO broken corners might be a vote.

Yes. They have a defined system... which solves SOME of the problems Florida had, but they're not going to find MORE votes per 1000 under votes than Florida did... and Florida was never close to recovery rate (OR the partisan balance) that we're going to need for this to work.

That having been said... a recount could open up the possibility of finding OTHER sources of votes we don't currently know about (say...a Republican county that "accidentally" boosted Bush's total by a few thousand).

[demwing]

14. Fewer is a relative term...

And since none of the recounted votes ultimately mattered in Florida, I could argue that Ohio will produce a greater amount of votes with a clear intent. But I won't :)

What it will come down to, if it comes down at all, is a combination of provisional, spoiled, and general recount votes.

Which is exactly what we will get, and perhaps a surprise or two along the way.