Even with the nomination not decided, I give Wes Clark a 1 in 4

[deminflorida]

chance at winning the White House. Well history gives him a one in four chance and here's why:

"All told, twenty-one generals have run a total of thirty times for president. Ten have actually held the office. Between 1796 and 1880 there were only four presidential elections in which a general did not make a try for the office (1812, 1816, 1820, and 1854). Yet from 1880 to the present there have been only four elections that featured a general as a nominated candidate. Of these four candidacies only Ike was successful."

Either way you want to spin it....it comes up 25%.

Of course if he wins the nomination it's 50%, duh...but after Iowa, I say only four candidates are viable. Clark and the top three in Iowa.


http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow200311190956.asp

[lancdem]

1. Gephardt will be done after Iowa

so I agree with your top 4.

[gulliver]

2. I put Clark's odds higher.

Just baseball talk, but I think if Clark gets the nomination he has about an 80% chance of beating Bush.

I think he has about a 60% chance of winning the nomination.

The main factor is subjective: the presidential demeanor and intellect of Clark himself. Southerner? Check. Good endorsements? Check. Money? Check (no pun). But after all that, Clark himself is his campaign's biggest asset. He comes across better than any Democratic presidential candidate I have ever seen -- yes, even Clinton.

[w4rma]

3. According to your theory, that is 25% IF the general is nominated.

And before that he has a slightly less than 25% chance of winning the nomination.

Which would give him about a 6% chance of winning the nomination AND the general election.

Calculations:
(1880-1796)/4=21 elections during that time period.
21 - 4 = 17 elections in which a general ran for the nomination
4 elections in which a general won the nomination
4/17=~25% of the generals who ran won the nomination.
1 general won the presidential election
1/4= 25% of the generals who won the nomination won the election
25% of ~25% is ~6%

Note, I do not subscribe to this theory.