Ok, someone explain how this was "stolen". No wild ass speculation plz

[TryingToWarnYou]

I want to hear how this was stolen. I dont believe it was. We were outvoted, simple as that IMO.

[montana500]

1. k

from what I am reading, I think Kerry won Florida by the margin Bush has. Why?

1. Did you see the lines in Florida? primarily in minority areas. HUGE lines. There were not

many lines in the smaller counties.

2. Nader. We likely got 60,000 Nader votes this time around. Nader had 30,000 votes this

time.


3. exit polls 51-49 kerry by all sources completely the opposite of the results. Completely.

4. doing worse than Gore did in Miami-Dade? I dont think so. Not with that turnout!

5. Reports of voters voting Kerry on machines and having it be Bush votes.

When you add in the early voting totals ( 20% of the vote, Kerry by 8 points), the huge

turnout in minority areas, the 60,000 + Nader votes now our way, increased turnout across

the board AND the exit polls from various sources, one can *only* conclude that there is/was

seirous fraud in the 2004 Florida election. This must be contested immediately.

If Edwards/Kerry have the guts, they should contest Florida.

[LSK]

2. diebold machines

I even heard a story from Florida yesterday about how a women voted then on the review section it showed all the wrong votes.

[Deja Q]

13. Then why aren't Kerry and witnesses yelling 'FOUL'?!

We deserve our loss if nobody bothers to make a peep.

[nodehopper]

3. Someone earlier showed the statistics, I double-checked what he said

I'm sorry I don't remember the name (maybe Faun?) of whoever drew my attention to this.

Look at a site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected.” (Correction is how the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, like when Nevada was reassigned in the night without varying the sample size).

Results can be also changed by other methods like screwing with the weighting (weighting in statistics is a coefficient assigned to elements of a frequency distribution in order to represent their relative importance).

So let's check out raw exit polls vs. announced results

Here is one list as an example of raw exit poll data:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Then look at the results by state, such as here
http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults


The GOP says that the exit polls are not large enough samples and so there is a large random error in the results. If this were true, then the exit polls would
scatter on either side of the actual result, ESP. if the final result is so close to 50/50.

When we compare exit polls with actual results we see a skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew favors Bush every time.

The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean, they are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a few of states where the final figures are very close to poll figures.

Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04

AZ Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55
CO Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53
LA Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57
MI Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48
IOWA Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50
NM Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50
ME 3rd 55-44 Published 53-45
NV: 3rd 48-49 Published 48-51
AR: 3rd 45-54 Published 45-54
MO Final 46-54 Published 46-53

These tracking polls are as expected and within the margin of error. But in othe states that is not the case. Either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong:

WI Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49
PA Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49
OH Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51
FL Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52
MINN Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48
NH Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49
NC Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56

If you measure the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, you will see:

OH Bush + 4%
FL Bush + 7%
NH Bush + 15%
NC Bush + 9%

etc.

[On the Road]

30. This is Extremely Helpful

It's exactly what I believe TryingToWarnYou was after.

Now, next question: what's the sampling process for exit polls? Is it random? Do people answer honestly How many people refuse? Could sampling and response variables like these account for the discrepancies with the vote?

It is very interesting which states were the outliers. But to get attention, it's got to be shown at a more specific level. The machines registering the wrong vote, if they can be identified and examined, are a good start.

[Sandpiper]

4. Ohio got black boxed

Wally O'Dell said last year that he was committed to delivering Ohio's Electoral Votes to Bush.

His paper trail-less Diebold machines were in wide use in Ohio. All of the exit polling data had Bush losing Ohio.

[TryingToWarnYou]

8. Ok, so is anyone investigating Ohio and BBV?

[nodehopper]

14. blackvoxvoting.org

[TryingToWarnYou]

18. Thanks!

[TryingToWarnYou]

20. How long do you think it will be before BBV has some hard facts?

Days, weeks or longer? Its a lot of information...

[nodehopper]

27. they will probably have something in a matter of days

at least if lawsuits etc. are initiated. you can sign up for their email alerts, I think

[RaleighNCDUer]

34. I keep hearing about how these machines can be hacked.

The easiest hack is to have it pre-programmed. How many lines of code would it take to flip every 22nd vote? Or to just disappear it? could that explain how there were only 113 million votes cast by 120 million voters?

[jayfish]

5. If You Don't believe It Then Why...

the fuck do you care about it? Move along and bond with your king.

And for the record I, unfortunately, don't believe it either. But I'm not going to goad someone into a flame-war. What an ass.

Jay

[TryingToWarnYou]

16. And why dont you get Cheneyed? Im asking a question.

Im not goading anyone into anything. Im asking a fucking question. If you cant help answer it, piss off. Some of us are cube rats and are getting the information however we can.

[jayfish]

28. BS.

"no wild-ass speculation plz". It's all speculation. How can you tell the difference if you haven't already made up your mind? If your mind is already made up then why do you want someone to explain their POV to you? Are you a glutton?

Jay

[TryingToWarnYou]

29. I dont want to hear conspiracy bullshit...these folks arent doing that

maybe you need to go take your Ritalin already. Or some Xanax...a bunch of them.

[jayfish]

32. Do You Have Any?

Ritalin acts just like speed in adults:bounce:. I will come back to the general line our discourse. Why do you care? You have made your mind up. Is it like a good book or something? Is it like gawking at a car wreck? Enlighten me as you would have these good people enlighten you.

Jay

[prayin4rain]

6. I don't believe it because the counties that went for Gore last

timein Florida went to Dubya. At the very least I just think they need to investigate the surprising results (like democratic counties going to *) and see if there is a trend---like electronic voting machines.

[OneMoreDemocrat]

7. I have to believe it because the alternative is too horrible..........

to contemplate.

[wiggs]

9. The basis of democracy is a well informed public

RNC and BA made sure that the public was not well informed.

[robbedvoter]

10. Bush has over 7 million more voters than in 2000 - WHO ARE THEY?

[TryingToWarnYou]

24. The U.S. had record numbers of newly registered voters...

Are we to believe that every one of them were for Kerry?

[robbedvoter]

26. No, not 70% for status quo vs 30% for change is a bit of a reach

As I said, I would have believed up to 4 million for W - because they kept saying they aimed for that. The rest is waaay to god to be true.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

11. i think they won fair and square

[nodehopper]

15. look at the numbers I posted above

[ComerPerro]

12. quite simply

Two very crucial states, Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 votes, were stolen. Or maybe its just a bizzare coincidence...

Both states have:

Republican Sec of States who were busted in various attempts to supress votes.

Electronic voting macines, which were promised to "get out the vote for Bush", and none of which have any kind of verification or accountability.

A final result that was way off of the exit polling, far beyond the margin of error.


I mean, really. Kerry is leading in Ohio by 5 on Nov 1 in many polls, 60% of people exit polled say that things are very bad and the economy is shit, and still Bush wins?

Excuse me for being a cynic, but this all just seems a little suspicious.

[TryingToWarnYou]

17. Ok, I agree with the machine issues as I dont trust them either.

I also didnt realize that both Fla and OH were having "suppression" issues. That makes it really suspicious IMO. I sure hope someone is going to contest this even though Kerry has conceded.

[Deja Q]

21. I concur. And without an investigation to prove Diebold of fair play,

the repukes will only get more bold in the future - assuming we still have elections, which I now even doubt. There IS a legitimate concern with the voting machines; and even half of my co-workers had no idea that electronic machies were being used in Florida. :wow:

The game's afoot.

[patdem]

19. Why has there never been an exit poll favoring a repub..and the vote

go to a democratic?? NEVER happened??? WHY? It is like all coins only come up heads no matter how many times you flip it???

[nomatrix]

22. Did you do any sample polling?

Oh, no notes to compare? I did.

It doesn't have to get technical. The exit polls didn't match in the counties.

Why don't you believe it? Because it was dishonest?

Why isn't Ken Lay in jail. Because he's innocent?

[TryingToWarnYou]

23. I dont understand exit polls to the extent that others do is my guess...

It is word of mouth right? In otherwords, Im asked who I voted for (as I understand it) and Im supposed to tell you, right?

[Shopaholic]

25. Go to Bev's site

blackboxvoting--all will be explained.

[jor_mama]

31. Has anyone considered the demographic shift

of baby boomers to Florida? Not as dramatic from '00 to '04 as it will be in future 4-year blocks, but I wonder if rich republican retirees have started pitching their tents in FL.

[ibegurpard]

33. Irrelevant

As long as it has the PERCEPTION of legitimacy, you'll never convince the people who are deliberately closing their eyes to the signs of the coming fascist storm no matter how hard you try? The media? Good luck. Dan Rather, anyone?

We've got to start local, building coalitions, infrastructure, and relationships to feed a movement. It's that or revolution and who's going to join the revolution?