My One Prediction About Tomorrow (Like Anyone Cares... ;-) )

[Khephra]

No matter who wins, it won't be over.

Why am I saying such a thing? Because too many people have been pushing Monday like it's the end of the race.

It's just the start.

Now I know that some of you are going to say that I'm saying this because I'm a Dean supporter and he's down in the polls.

Nope.

Even if Dean pulled off a miracle and won 99% of the vote, it still wouldn't be over.

Some posters here are likely to act like it's all over after we find out the results. We always have our over-reacters here.

But I ain't one of them.

With this election there's too much at stake, and we're going to see at least half of the candidates staying in until Super Tuesday.

Get back with me before Super Tuesday. THAT might be when it's pretty much all over. I'll know in the few days leading up to it, but it's too far off to judge now.

[cthrumatrix]

1. I think ALL would agree with you...history will tell you that

nothing is a given

[lastknowngood]

6. splitting the Dem's

remember the media and the rove machine will do everything to
keep 3 or 4 wounded Dem cand. in play as long as possible to try
to deflect truth away from the shrub. Now that Mr. Lieberman is
locked in with the 1%ers they can use him as an analist to undermine
the leaders. Just because they have the same goals doesn't make it
a conspiracy unless there are meetings.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi lastknowngood!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Egnever]

2. You absolutely right!

But I will be watching all of them as if they were THE most important vote in the whole election. I want my country back that much!

[Padraig18]

3. Exactly.

:)

[Renew Deal]

4. I am glad you wrote this and I partly agree.

There is still going to be a lot going on. I do think Gep will drop if he gets worse than a very very strong second. He just doesn't have the money or the support to go on. I think Dean would be hurt by a 3rd or 4th place finish. I think Lieberman could drop out after NH if he gets creamed which I think he will. He has had NH to himself like Clark has and he has gone down.

Terry M. wants 2 candidates after Feb. 3rd. I am not sure if he will get it. Dean might stick around if he loses both NH and Iowa just because he has money and organization. Kerry could stick around if he gets some breaks. Edwards could stick around if he just wins SC. Gep could stick around if he wins IA and then Missouri on Feb. 3rd. And Clark is running from Feb 3 on.

Basically, there are too many scenarios and it would be far from over.

[Khephra]

9. Dang! I just typed a long response and the posting screwed up!

Sigh...here we go again....

Personally, I think Lieberman has the potential to really mess things up for any candidate. His tactics have been, imo, the lowest of them all. He's really been using the Republican Handbook. Once a candidate gets in the lead, Joe will use anything against them.

This election is personal for Joe. Once he realizes that he doesn't stand a chance at winning, I think we could see a Scorched Earth campaign out of him, hurting all the remaining candidates.

Kucinich isn't going to be going anywhere soon either. If Dean is a "movement", then Kucinich is a "revolution".

Sharpton is in it more to make a point (imo), so he's not going anywhere.

No matter how badly they do, Dean and Kerry won't go anywhere until near the end as they have the money and supporters to run until it looks hopeless.

Clark has enough supporters and money to last quite a while too.

Really the only one that I can see dropping out early now is Gephardt.

Edwards? No clue.

[newsguyatl]

5. one just needs to remember

clinton didn't win iowa OR new hampshire, and, well, we know how far he went.

[Democrats unite]

7. True but all the ones running in Iowa are not even close to Clinton

eom

[Renew Deal]

8. No one ran in IA.

It was all Harkins. IA matters this time.

[SadEagle]

10. Would you please stop making sense, this is GD2004!

Another thing to remember is that winning is very much overrated this year, given proportional delegate allocation.

[davsand]

11. Earlier I thought this one could go all the way to convention.

I'll grant you it is wishful thinking on my part, but I think it would be excellent to have this primary be in play for as long as possible. Talk about keeping the Dem issues front and center!

I do think the arena needs to empty out a bit, but if we have at least two or three candidates still in play after super Tuesday, I'll be a happy woman. The critical factor is getting it down to few enough candidates that the voters can focus, IMO.

Last night, I went to pick up a pizza for family pizza night, and they had a TV on with coverage of the Iowa scramble going on right now. The guy behind the counter asked me if I'd been following it at all and I said yeah, I had. He kinda laughed and said I must be really into it because he couldn't keep up with all the candidates and what they all had said...

I asked him was he watching it on TV or reading the newspapers-where was he getting his news from? He said TV only (made me flinch big time, but hey, I realize he's an average guy working and paying the bills...) and that he'd watched one of the debates. He couldn't remember who said what!

I realized then that we have got to get that group narrowed down. But I have to admit, I'm not sure I see anybody getting the 50% mark on delegates before Super Tuesday.

Laura