New ARG 1/17 Kerry up, Clark down, Dean level, undecided up

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3-Day Results  	1/9-11 1/10-12 1/11-13 1/12-14 	1/13-15
1/14-16 1/15-17
Braun 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Clark 	        19% 	20% 	22% 	24% 	23% 	22% 	20%
Dean 	        36% 	34% 	32% 	29% 	28% 	28% 	28%
Edwards 	3% 	3% 	3% 	5% 	6% 	8% 	8%
Gephardt 	4% 	4% 	4% 	4% 	3% 	3% 	3%
Kerry 	        10% 	11% 	13% 	15% 	16% 	18% 	19%
Kucinich 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Lieberman 	10% 	9% 	9% 	7% 	7% 	6% 	6%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	17% 	18% 	16% 	15% 	16% 	14% 	15%
	  						
Sample size 	616 	621 	623 	622 	616 	616 	610
	  						
Democrats 	425 	430 	435 	435 	430 	429 	425
Undeclared 	191 	191 	188 	187 	186 	187 	185
Undeclared (%) 	31% 	31% 	30% 	30% 	30% 	30% 	30%


 45% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are
not strongly committed to a candidate or are undecided.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[jenk]

1. Edwards is also creeping up

look out!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. no, he's level at 8% from yesterday...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. It's a whole new ballgame in NH when IA is over

We've seen in IA how fluid the numbers become right at the end; watch for the same in NH. Clark has had NH all to himself, but I suspect that Kerry will continue to rise in NH if he continues to succeed in IA.

I also think Dean is going to go back up in NH when he returns. And Edwards will appeal to voters in NH, too, when he gets there full time.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. If you look at the strength of support section Dean has a big advantage

with 23% of his is 28% saying they are 'committed'. With the numbers saying there are 45% available though, it's actually pretty wide open.

[Walt Starr]

3. Looks like Clark has a case of Kerry creep

Edwards is looking good too.

[isbister]

5. Rest up Wes, enjoy the Patriots game

Because the circus will soon be coming to town!

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. While Clark has had NH "to himself"

Poor Lieberman didn't gain a thing out of moving to NH for a month. Anyway, though Clark has essentially had the NH field to himself, in one way that is misleading. It played strongly to Clark's benefit for two weeks or so, because among other things, Clark was the biggest story. And it certainly has given Clark time to meet and greet voters in NH. But NH does not exist in a vacuum, people there follow national news also, just like folks everywhere. Up until this last week National primary coverage was fairly balanced between the goings on in Iowa and in NH.

That has all changed. For the last week the electronic media in particular have almost exclusively focused on the candidates and the horse race in Iowa. Clark still has a big "retail" advantage "on the street" in NH, but the "wholesale" action, major coverage, is fixed on the Iowa drama, and Clark isn't part of it. Ironically that type of mass media attention will only be restored to Clark once the rest of the candidates and media rejoin him in New Hampshire.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Poll shows Kerry, Edwards gaining in New Hampshire

Pollster Dick Bennett, of the Manchester-based group said it appears that more voters are moving away from Dean toward Kerry, Clark and Edwards. "People are now saying, 'Oh, maybe Dean doesn't have it locked up,' " Bennett said Sunday. "What they're looking for is a winner. And there's nothing better to prove you're a winner than winning." And Bennett said the expectation is that Kerry will win Iowa, which certainly would give him a boost in New Hampshire.

Supporters of the Massachusetts senator attribute the rise in support to the looming deadline of the Jan. 27 primary. Now, they say, New Hampshire voters are taking the race seriously, and they don't want to take a gamble with a candidate without a proven record.

"People are really paying attention to the candidates, they're looking at them hard and seeing flaws in Howard Dean and Wesley Clark," said Jim McConaha, who has supported Kerry since he met him a year ago at a house party in Concord. McConaha, 62, said Kerry "has really cranked himself up. He's been able to cover a lot more territory and voters than he was before."
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/7741771.htm

Whoa, suddenly 'the expectation is that Kerry will win Iowa'? Darn, I'd prefer if he were still the underdog...

[Hoppin_Mad]

8. Clark's intense focus on NH results in a 2 point loss

he has the state all to himself and support declines -Interesting

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. No, he's well up overall since others shifted to Iowa

You need to look at the last three weeks numbers if that is your criteria. Clark is down over the last week only, after media and public attention moved off of New Hampshire and fixated on Iowa in anticipation of the nearly upon us Iowa vote. Clark overall has moved from a distant third, to essentially a tie for second, and closed dramatically on Dean in the process.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. The big number to look at is

next Tuesday's number.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. Well, we'll do that next Tuesday.

For now, these are the numbers.

[Dookus]

13. LOL...

Exactly one month ago, Dean was at 45% and Clark was at 8%.

[SW FL Dem]

10. What are you comparing?

If you start with the first data - it shows Clark up one from 19 to 20, Dean down 8 from 36 to 28, Kerry up 9 from 10 an undecided down 2.

Statistics can be easily manipulated. I read the last week's numbers to say Clark is stable, Dean has lost support and Kerry has
gained support.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Sorry, the line break makes it a little confusing

that was an accident. But I'm comparing the last column - today's numbers - to the next to last column - yesterday's numbers.