New Des Moines Register Poll: Kerry opens 6 point lead over Dean

[wyldwolf]

Just heard on (sorry - I was watching Jesse Jackson) FOX news.

[BobbyJay]

1. Yes, I heard Dean is now THIRD in Iowa.

In another post someone said it was Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Gep now.

[WI_DEM]

2. not surprised

this poll was conducted during the Kerry surge this week. It is still close and it will come down to who gets their troops to the polls. According to Zogby tracking poll kerry was five points up yesterday and is only one-point up today.

[ModerateMiddle]

38. I dunno man

according to the article accompanying the poll results:

"During polling for the Register last week, Kerry's two-day rolling average climbed from 24 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday to 29 percent on Thursday and Friday. Edwards' level of support increased a little more gradually."

[isbister]

40. In another sign of strength for Kerry, he is supported by 33 percent

of those definitely planning to attend the caucuses. Dean comes in second in this group with 21 percent. Edwards and Gephardt follow with 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

The race has seen a surprising reversal of fortunes for Dean and Gephardt, who took turns leading Iowa Polls in July and November, and for Kerry and Edwards, who lagged behind in those polls and seemed destined to finish third or worse in the caucuses. Now, all bets are off.

During polling for the Register last week, Kerry's two-day rolling average climbed from 24 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday to 29 percent on Thursday and Friday. Edwards' level of support increased a little more gradually.

Support for Dean dropped by 7 points, to 16 percent on Thursday and Friday.

[arewethereyet]

3. hes the link

http://desmoinesregister.com/index.html

[sandnsea]

4. Yehaa!!

This is the poll that counts. Well, Monday night is what actually counts, but this has historically been the best predictor. Awesome!!

[arewethereyet]

5. jeepers this is terrific for Edwards

I don't understand why Kerry is left off the plus/minus table on the breakdown page

[sandnsea]

8. Yes it is good for Edwards

I am pleased as punch for him too, believe me. And I don't know anything about the whys and wherefores of who put this together. Probably in a hurry and mistakes were made.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Iowa Poll finds surge by Kerry, Edwards

A late surge by Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry and John Edwards has pushed them slightly ahead of long-standing front-runners Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in the race to win Monday's Iowa caucuses, a new Des Moines Register poll shows.

Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, leads the Iowa Poll with 26 percent of likely caucus participants naming him their first choice for the presidency. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, also showed him gaining strength as the week wore on.

Edwards, a North Carolina senator who was in single digits in an Iowa Poll taken two months ago, follows in second place at 23 percent - his highest finish in any media poll.

<snip>

The poll offers ample evidence that the contest remains fluid:

* Just 8 percentage points separate Kerry, in first place, from Gephardt, in fourth.

* Nearly half of those who have a candidate preference - 47 percent - say they still could be persuaded to support someone else.

* Five percent of likely caucus participants are still undecided.
http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/23244233.html

[boxster]

21. 47%?? Holy cow!

47% of respondents said that they could still be persuaded to support someone else. That is simply astonishing.

This one's a crap shoot, folks. Analysis is futile.

[windansea]

25. wow n/t

[onecitizen]

7. Yeah, I heard it too.......

I wish I knew what my problem is with Kerry but I just don't like the guy. He was whiney when he was losing and acted like he should just BE the candidate for some reason. Because he's been in the Senate for 20 some years. He was sooo thrown off by Dean. Couldn't understand why we liked the guy. Here is the reason Kerry: he listened to US. The people! We begged you guys NOT to go to war. Not to give this president unbridled authority to do whatever he wanted to do. We BEGGED you guys. You wouldn't listen and went ahead and gave him authority to thoroughly screw up OUR country! Now YOU want us to make YOU president. HA!

Sorry, a bit of a rant.:mad:

[liberalpragmatist]

9. He's Really Very Good

But I can see you're a Dean supporter. Go ahead and support Dean. I'll tell you that to be entirely honest, I still think that Dean's gonna be the nominee, but it'll only be after a tumultuous primary season, and he'll get it just barely. But if Kerry's the nominee, give him a chance. Go seem him in person, go to a town meeting if you get the chance, research his positions.

I'd bet you'd find a lot about him that you'd like and a lot that could get you excited about a Kerry presidency.

But until then, support whoever you want. That's what the primary's for. :)

[Lorien]

23. psychic Sylvia Brown predicted

Kerry as the Dem nominee, for whatever that's worth! :shrug:

[cindyw]

29. Oh god, now I'M WORRIED.

Last time she said the nominee would be Bradley.

[Andromeda]

36. Bwahahahahahaha...

:bounce: That's so funny! Sylvia Brown also predicted that Clinton would be "dead meat" in the 1992 presidential race because of the Jennifer Flowers scandal and other bimbo eruptions.

[onecitizen]

24. You know, I used to like the guy........

a lot. In fact he was my first choice way back when. He gave the best speech I think I have ever heard, right before he voted for the war. I could not believe it. I am a Dean supporter. But I realize he's not perfect. But can you imagine what this primary would have been like if we had never heard of Dean? How boring! I mean if nothing else, Dean shook it up and stirred it! He has gotten so many people involved in the process who would otherwise never had. Dean will go down in HX as the man who brought the PEOPLE back into the political process. Thank-you Dr. Dean!!

Thank-you LP, that was a nice reply from you.:yourock:

[daveskilt]

16. same boat

I just dont like Kerry or Gephart. anyone else would be fine (except for Al Sharpton - love his social and foriegn policy but his fiscal policies ugh) dunno why I dislike gephart or Kerry so much. But lets face it - if a small bowl of jello wins the nomination then I am voting for a small bowl of jello this time around. I mean could it possibly not be an improvement over bush?

[onecitizen]

34. You're right.......

ABB!!

Welcome to DU daveskilt!!:hi:

[IndianaGreen]

10. This means that Gephardt is finished!

Gephardt was expected to win Iowa by virtue of being from a neighboring state, plus he had won the caucuses back in 1988.

Gephardt finishing fourth, despite his union support, means that he is finished as a Presidential candidate.

He is the weakest link, good bye!

As to the ones that finish in the top three positions, however they turn out to be, savor this moment for it may well be the last happy news they will get in the campaign. The nation's first primary awaits them in New Hamphire where Wes Clark waits in ambush!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Yep, especially when you look at the NH numbers

even if Gephardt were to suprise everyone and win Iowa, he is too far out of it in NH to benefit from the bounce. But also if you look at the ARG poll for today, you'll see the only candidates gaining overall are Kerry and Edwards, thanks to their momentum in Iowa.

[lcordero]

11. Fox mentioned this poll twice in ten minutes

I see that the fix in is no matter what.

[wyldwolf]

14. Mentioning a poll several times concerning an important event...

...constitutes a fix?

[BobbyJay]

15. Any poll that doesn't have Dean at #1 is a fix.

[lcordero]

18. Dean at #1 is a fix too

A delegate or super delegate pledging to one candidate before so much as ONE vote is casted is a fix.

[shance]

30. I think we are at Diebolds mercy here - isnt Iowa mostly electronic?

We have GOT to get rid of these machines. How can anyone trust whats going on?

I feel as though all of this poll gyrating and speculation is as though they are playing with the masses.

Tell me the odds of such a huge swing in the votes 3 days before the election. Overall, I just want to feel confident in the process and this feels like total bullshit.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

33. These are telephone polls that are being reported.

And the caucuses are as different from black box voting as you could get. It's not even anonymous - you have to publicly declare for a candidate.

And yes, it is very, very common to have wild swings in the polls just prior to election as well as upset results. If politics weren't so unpredictable it wouldn't be nearly as much fun!

[windansea]

35. these polls have nothing to do with Diebold

and Iowa caucus "votes" are recorded by actual human bodies present

[paulk]

37. you've posted this several times

and several times you've been informed that there is no electronic (black box ) voting going on in the Iowa Democratic Caucus.

You really would benefit from going to some of the websites devoted to the caucus and learning how the Iowa caucus is conducted.

[BobbyJay]

12. Edwards is ROCKIN!

[lovedems]

17. Is this the paper that endorsed Kerry?

I don't have a candidate and will vote ABB but if this is the paper that endorsed him, don't you think they have an interest in making him a leader by a wide margain? Just a thought. We see how the media manipulates.

[wyldwolf]

19. I thought they endorsed Edwards...?

[maddezmom]

22. they endorsed Edwards

[lovedems]

26. I realized that about 3 minutes after I made my post. Oops!

Sorry! I guess I am just so quick to question the media!

[maddezmom]

32. no prob

:hug:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

28. No, they endorsed Edwards. But they also didn't conduct the poll

they just commissioned it.

[beaconess]

46. They didn't endorse Dean, so they're in on the conspiracy

[VolcanoJen]

20. Oh, wow, oh, wow, oh wow!!!

What a cliffhanger!! What a kickoff!

Such amazing momentum from Kerry, and Edwards, the dark horse. Dean is in there, and may pull it out... but the weekend story out of Iowa is shaping up to be the Kerry and Edwards PUSH.

I also think the Gephardt decline is a bigger story than Dean's decline.

Don't trust the Iowa polls... but it sure is looking like a horserace.

:D

I love this political junkie dream season so far, and New Hampshire is only days away, too,
Jennifer

[Feanorcurufinwe]

31. Yep, this is fun.

There were times it was hard to keep the faith that things were ever going to turn around, but now if finally seems that people are listening to John, and seeing him listen to them. I'm less surprised by the Gephardt slide than Dean's -- neighbor or not I think too many people think of Gephardt the way I do - a good man whose time is past. The big question still remains, if Dean's 'non-traditional' support is not showing in the polls and his army of volunteers will make the difference.

I'm on the edge of my seat.

[ModerateMiddle]

44. I agree

I am very encouraged not only by Zogby's polling and this one, but by the way Kerry is campaigning these past few weeks.

Hope is restored! Not that we ever really gave up, but we certainly were feeling discouraged for a while.

I am still a bit nervous about how turnout is going to be. Everyone keeps talking about the Dean and Gephardt machines. It's very possible that this poll, at least, undercounts Dean support with some amount of significance.

I hope I don't keel over from excitement before Monday night!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

45. In the battle of organizations

Gephardt has labor, Dean has his army of out-of-state volunteers, Kerry has a lot of in-state political support and a much smaller volunteer effort. Edwards seems to be the odd man out.

[adadem]

47. Kerry also has

veterans and firefighters...I was phone banking with them today. The VietNam vets were really fired up...so hopeful that one of "theirs" may be president one day. Brought tears to my eyes...these guys are really on fire for Kerry.

I wonder if, because of the way they were "received" when they came home if they see this run by Kerry (and perhaps Clark, too) as legitimizing themselves as heroes...since they were not treated as such. They're all my heroes...every soldier is a hero even if the war they had to fight in was wrong in the eyes of many.

[lurk_no_more]

27. This is really great news

Congrats John!



And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[kerryistheanswer]

39. Interesting stat from poll on likely caucus goers

In another sign of strength for Kerry, he is supported by 33 percent of those definitely planning to attend the caucuses. Dean comes in second in this group with 21 percent. Edwards and Gephardt follow with 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

If Kerry's support definitely shows up, the myth about Dean's and Gephardt's organization could be refuted.

[saltpoint]

41. While a big handful of our candidates --

-- are in a tight race in Iowa, Bush's approval ratings are sliding.

People in Iowa are finding a lot to like in our candidates. Our Democrats are stirring up a lot of praise and attention in Iowa, and Iowa is not known for its far-left voting trends. This much activity for Democrats bodes poorly for Bush.

[jenk]

42. imho, Gep will pass Dean

and Howard will be in 4th place when all is said and done

[arewethereyet]

43. that would not surprize me, the unions guys will get motivated

not like they were not already motivated but the heat is really on them now. if they cannot deliver the goods (no pun intended) then their very power as a support group goes into serious question and that is totally unacceptable for them.

[BobbyJay]

48. That would be devestating for Dean.

Absolutely devestating.

[R3dD0g]

52. Fourth in Iowa wouldn't be devastating

Clinton came in fourth.

I just don't put much weight on Iowa anymore. It's good fun, but not really indicative of what happens later on.

[MoonRiver]

49. Congrats to Kerry and Edwards folks!

You have great candidates! :kick:

[leyton]

50. Thanks

Kerry, Edwards, Clark - any of them will make fine presidents.

[mitchum]

51. WOO HOO!