Why is everyone so confident?

[Onlooker]

The polls mostly show Bush with a slight edge, the state polls are mixed and could go either way, DUers from Ohio seem to be at best guardedly optimistic, Freepers claim that the New York Times poll showed internals with undecideds going to Bush, the Repugs are using all sorts of sleazy tools to discourage voting and defraud voters, we're still struggling in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, and so on.

On the other hand, there is some good news. Turnout appears to be high, polls of early voters favors the Democrats, several polls suggest we could take Florida and Ohio, some think we're competitive in states like Virginia, polls of cellphone users favor Kerry and polls of new voters favor Kerry, and so on.

But, the only reasonable feeling to have is guarded optimism. Am I missing something? I hope so.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Cellphones. Young People.

[grytpype]

2. Undecideds go for the challenger.

So unless Bush is soundly beating Kerry in the horse race polls, he is losing.

[StupidFOX]

3. You pretty much said it yourself:

"On the other hand, there is some good news. Turnout appears to be high, polls of early voters favors the Democrats, several polls suggest we could take Florida and Ohio, some think we're competitive in states like Virginia, polls of cellphone users favor Kerry and polls of new voters favor Kerry, and so on."

Plus, polls misunderestimated Dems last time, this time, they weight the numbers funny and SERIOUSLY misunderestimate Dems.

[high density]

4. People don't wait in 2 hours lines to maintain the status quo

and high turnout will favor John Kerry.

[nookiemonster]

16. BINGO!

Higher turnouts ALWAYS favor Dems.

[bringbackfdr]

5. We ARE NOT struggling in NH!

Kerry has NH. Period.

[Jack_Dawson]

27. How do you know?

[bringbackfdr]

37. Because I've lived here for 46 years

Because the southern tier of the state, where the population bases are, will overwhelmingly go Kerry. Because there is no way Ralph Nader is going to get the 20,000 votes he got here in 2000, when Gore lost by about one-third that much. Because even the Repuke governor here is in trouble.
Are those good enough reasons?

[Jack_Dawson]

52. Hard Evidence?

Listen I hope you're right, I'm just wondering if your projections are based on anything other than your wishes.

[coreystone]

35. GO New Hampshire!

:kick:

[West Coast Democrat]

6. Kerry is doing much better in the polls than Gore was at this point!

The way I see it, Bush* has to win both FL and OH to win. He can't lose either one. We only need to win one of these.

[freetobegay]

7. The train has left the satation & nothing can be done.

We have the momentum, the backbone & a just cause! Ain't no stopping that train baby!

[0007]

19. Let's make sure Kerry wins

 Call 866 687-8683
If Poll Workers refuse you to vote for any reason
If there is a late opening or early closing of a polling place.
If your polling place runs out of ballots or has an incorrect ballot
If you experience poll worker insensitivity or discrimination in the voting process

The civil rights community have set up a toll-free Election Day hotline. This line is
staffed now and, in addition to logging your complaint, the civil rights organizations have law
students and attorneys who can provide assistance on Election Day.

the hotline number is
866 687-8683
202 457-0473 fax

When you call the hotline, be prepared to give your name, telephone number, and note as many
details as possible, including the names of the people who are involved.

[keithjx]

8. Enthusiasm.

I do believe that Kerry will win both electorally and popularly, and *Co will fight substantially (and dirtily, which will be his undoing). Aside from that, though -

Excitement at taking part in one of the most anticipated elections in recent memory (I'm 29, and this is the most anticipated in my lifetime, anyway). That excitement, especially in a universe like DU (which is decidedly one-sided), is infectious....

[Garage Queen]

9. You might as well ask why disruptors waste their time here.

There's just not one "right" answer....

[arewenotdemo]

25. chuckle.

[Mountainman]

10. Bush has been stuck at 47/48% for weeks, he has no momentum

Kerry has been gaining and that means momentum. Bush will not get greater than his 47/48%. I heard yesterday on TV that one thing to look for is the fact that the incumbent gets the percentage of the vote that is shown in the last poll before the election. Bush will not have enough votes to win. Kerry has him tied or ahead even without the undecideds thrown in and the majority of them will vote for Kerry.


Also the positive feelings are on our side and the negative feeling are on the other side.

[clydefrand]

11. Cell phones; old people; common sense; necessity to change

course of action in this country. Brilliance vs. stupidity. Also, most of those polled were repugs. DEMS are at work when the polling is done. Also many people refuse to answer pollsters either out of fear (Uncle Sam watching us) or thinking it's none of their damn business. Lots of us oldies think that way. But not me! I'd scream out Kerry if they called me. I might have already been called because while I'm on here typing away or reading I get calls from "unkowns". Probably some of those Rummy unknowns. Some you know and some you don't know...

[samtob]

12. I had fewer people tell me

"Fuck off" while calling today. So that is a good indication for me. Of course, the day is not over as I volunteered for a couple more hours tonight. (I live in a VERY red state)

[Glenda]

36. Thank you for doing this!

I don't think I could handle the vulgar people

[Liberalboy]

13. I can just feel it....

it's just that simple.

[dirtyduck]

14. young voters, enthusiasm, and a general feeling of calm about it all

[StupidFOX]

15. WE'RE GONNA FREAKING WIN!!!!

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Oh yeah... President Kerry has it all locked up. I just can't wrap my mind around a president who LOSES jobs in his term winning reelection.

[Zero Division]

17. Incumbents who poll below 50% are historically in trouble....

a polling of 47% for the incumbent means a more than likely win for the challenger (as long as the challenge is a few points in range). And, like someone above mentioned, undecideds tend to break for the challenger (yes, I've read the rebuttals from Repubs on this, but I thought they did a poor job of reasoning why this election will be different).

Hearing about the great early voting results for Kerry in Iowa and Florida has really boosted my confidence.

[JPJones]

18. Here's why

                      Gore     Bush
Average of 7 polls    46.0	47.0   (with about 5% undecideds)
within 4 days of 
election

Outcome               48.4	47.87

75% of the 'undecideds' broke for Gore.  They aren't really
undecideds, they're people who the polls didn't take into
account.


                        Kerry   Bush
Average of 7 polls      46.9	47.6
within 4 days of
election

With about 5 percent undecideds.

Bush needed to be about 4-5% ahead at this point to make up
for all the Bush haters who haven't picked Kerry yet.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. Exit polls indicated late deciders DID break for Gore

By 48-45 margin. among people who made up their mind in the final 3 days or week.

Kerry is the winner if that repeats.

[sonicx]

20. dude, Bush is polling at 47-48 and everything is statistically tied. that

is bad for an incumbent.

party pooper. :)

[H2O Man]

21. The polls are not accurate in

elections with a high voter turn-out. They are all based on "likely voters." This excludes those, for example, who did not vote in the last election. It excludes those who have cell phones, rather than the old-fashioned phones. It ignores Native Americans who live on "Indian Territory."

In many cases, voter turn-out is only about 50% in the US. The closer it is to 50%, the more accurate polls are. This year, even conservative republicans believe it could be 70%; some democrats are saying it has the potential to be an 80-plus% turn-out. The early votes certainly indicate that 75% is realistic. If it is over 68%, toss those polls out the window.

It is extremely important that we have a high turn out for many reasons. It will make it impossible for the republicans to try to steal the election. The Supreme Court will not help them again, if it is a good-sized Kerry win. And it will help Kerry to get support from the House and Senate. So we need to vote. But be confident: Kerry has won the contest. He's won because of the hard work of the grass roots. He won because of the creative young people who are rousing the conscience of this great nation. And Kerry knows that!

[Zynx]

22. Most of the news is good news. Bush is not slightly ahead either.

[bush equals idiot]

26. What are you talking about ..* is ahead in the polls??

Look at the Zogby battleground state polls.

[Zynx]

28. We are ahead and gaining by the hour.

We will win. I am willing to bet money on it.

[Steelangel]

23. Read Daily Kos to find out why.

http://www.dailykos.com

[Silent3]

24. Here's some of what you're missing...

Most of the polls in 2000 were off 2-4 points in favor of Bush. There's good reason to believe that the same bias and more still exists, including the fact that cell-phone only voters, who are mostly young, urban, and lean democratic, have been left out of most of the polling.

GOTV (Get Out The Vote). All indications I've seen are that the Democratic GOTV operation is better than ever, and doing much better than the Republican effort. Newly registered Democrats are handily outstripping newly registered Republicans. As anecdotal evidence, I can say that here in NH Dems are out in force. I see Kerry supporters all the time out on the streets waving Kerry/Edwards signs. On the other hand, I've barely seen any Republican effort except for bumper stickers and yard signs. In Manchester yesterday, I saw only a couple of Republican protesters in a sea of Kerry visibility people, all lining the streets of Manchester during the Kerry rally there. From what I heard, there were a few more protesters than that who I missed, but still they were majorly overwhelmed.

Democrats want this election, BADLY. Maybe some of the die-hard Christian Right is just as fired up, but I don't feel like the overall Republican drive to get out and vote holds a candle to the Democratic commitment to do so.

None of these factors in the polls, and all of them together can and probably will swing the vote enough to capture a decent electoral majority, 300+ EV IMHO.

[mumon]

29. The "polls" are mostly LV

when this is the year -like 2000- of the RV.

[Pacifist Patriot]

30. The alternative is too nauseating?

Seriously, I can't add much to what has been said above. I think the results tomorrow are going to throw quite a few people for a loop.

[Christiandem]

31. pukes say NYT poll showed internals going to bush?

Link please? But I agree w/you, we should be cautiously optimistic. No popping the champagne before the fat lady sings.

[Rebellious Republican]

32. We are ready for their "Dirty Tricks" this time! N/T

[Carolinian]

33. So, what's the harm of taking some optimism and running with it, Eyore?

[VOX]

34. Onlooker, stop being an onlooker and get thee to an interactive EV map....

Try the L.A. Times. You have to register, but it's free, and well worth it -- they have an excellent interactive electoral vote mape online there:

http://www.latimes.com/

Once you've done that, I urge you to fiddle with this map for awhile. Click all the obvious Bush* states to red, if they're not already.
Do the same with Kerry's blue states.

Now, look at those upper Midwest states -- Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. Look at Florida. Click them to blue, then red, in different combinations.

Yes, the polls are tight, and it probably will be a relatively close election -- but the way the states are breaking looks **good**. I don't want to say any more than that!

Cheers -- :toast:

[TexasSissy]

38. Yes, you are. Most of the polls have come up a bit for Kerry in the

last couple of days. Most of the polls for the individual battleground states show Kerry leading, albeit by a smidgeon. The battleground state polls, a lot of people believe, are more important than the national head to head polls.

It's an electoral vote thing. Not a popular vote thing. But most of the MOST RECENT polls show the national head to head as a tie or statistical tie.

Kerry stands a good chance of winning Ohio, Pa, and Florida. So does Bush, but still....the momentum seems to be with Kerry.

Add to this the hordes of early voters, the cell phoners who were never polled, and a few undecideds, and things are looking very good for Kerry. Very good. And very bad for an incumbent.

Most importantly, Bush's averaged job approval rating is a smidgeon below 50%. Doesn't mean he'll lose. But it's not high enough to mean he'll win.

Unlike the Bush/Gore race, this one involves an incumbent. The rules are a bit different. When there's a tie, it often breaks for the challenger. It's not a given, but as I said, things are looking good.

BUT if you're looking at ONLY national polls, and going back for a couple of weeks, you won't see this.

[phish420]

39. Because you can add 3% to each poll for kerry...

...because they dont account for
Cell phone/internet only voters
The 12-15 MILLION new voter turnout
the 1.5 million log cabin republicans that he pissed off that voted for him 4 yrs ago, but will not this time

[phish420]

40. btw - even the republicans accept this

They have said quietly that * needs a 5% lead in the final days to win. They know they are done.

[Amaya]

41. This country has changed in the last four years

We are gonna unseat this wretched bastard. This is our time. I can feel it. Feel it! It's gonna happen.

[RockyO]

42. who owns SatNightLive? = big business and that M&M ran Mosh

who owns SatNightLive? = big business and that M&M ran Mosh says they give a wink&a&nod approval to dumping the Kids Loose in the Kitchen

[Awsi Dooger]

43. I agree, Kerry may have a 55-60% chance but not significantly higher

He remains the betting line underdog. My spreadsheet model indicates Kerry needs the popular vote by .7% to be safe. There still seem to be more ways for Kerry to win the popular and lose electoral than the delightful and appropos riverse.

State polls are irrelevant. The states that mirror the nation will fall in line with the direction the country breaks as a whole. There are very few undecideds and they may not tilt as heavily to a challenger who is now well known and not considered particularly likeable. Nine of 10 presidential incumbents since 1900 have been reelected when his party has been in office only one term. There is a natural benefit of a doubt toward the incumbent in that situation. Cell phones users are a non factor. No reason to believe they have been inadequately represented in the polls. After 9/11 party identification tipped slightly toward the GOP, by at least a 1% net and especially among Hispanics. The other side pursued new registers, particularly rural, for four full years and WILL show up. Our estimation that only Democrats are energized is absurd. The Republicans drastically revamped and improved their GOTV after 2000.

Flame away. I believe Kerry will win and I finally bet on him, quite heavily. That is a drastic change from my longheld handicap, that Kerry is "just good enough to get you beat," posted on DU nearly two years ago. Frankly, I planned to wager on Bush until the series of debates.

But no way this race is anything but slightly better than a jump ball. There is no history of an incumbent with an approval rating in GW's current range, very high 40s. There are indications 46% or lower is death and 53% and up is safe. We have conveniently used below 50% as fatal, when a point or two below that is truthfully unknown territory. Charlie Cook estimated Bush was done at 48% poll consensus, iffy at 49% and winner at 50%. There are too many 49s floating out there for my comfort. True, as many or more peg Bush at 48% or lower. And perhaps the 49s are skewed high with undecideds pushed.

I think our winning hand is underestimated and underpolled minority support, similar to 2000.

And I'm just hoping Jon Stewart didn't knock the handicapping expertise out of Tucker Carlson. In 2002, Tucker was the most accurate media handicapper during the midterm, projecting big GOP gains. This year he forecasts Kerry winning with roughly 51.5%. Yesterday on the Chris Matthews Show his rationale was simple: hatred for Bush exceeds any love/respect for him.

[frank frankly]

45. because kerry is going to win

stop watching tv. they also said saddam was an imminent threat.

[msgeri55]

46. confident

not, at least not yet.

[DaveinMD]

47. I am cautiously optimistic

I don't think its in the bag yet and think that kind of thinking is not what we need right now.

[kaitykaity]

48. Mark Shields wrote a column about an incumbent's

final poll number is his ceiling and that the
challenger's number is his floor. (It was true of
Carter, Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton -- they never
got more.)

Incumbents don't get more than their final number,
and so for all his money, Bush still has the same
number of voters that he did in November of 2000.

This is a derivative of the 50% rule for an
incumbent ii if an incumbent is less than 50% in the
polls before election day, he's sunk.

[monchie]

49. I too am cautiously optimistic...

...but I do believe that if the election is fair, Kerry will win. (Unfortunately, in these times that's a pretty big "if.")

After following the polls closely for months, my gut feeling is that the likely voters models are off by at least 3 points in Shrub's favor, largely due to undersampling of young voters, minorities, new registrations, and infrequent voters. This isn't some anti-Kerry plot by the pollsters, but rather the inherent limitations of scientific polling. Pollsters partly base their models on historical trends, and IMHO these trends won't work as well for this election.

Young voters have historically tended to be non-voters, but that trend will most likely be broken, at least for this election. Young males especially are fearful of a draft, given how the Reserve and National Guard troops have been abused, and given Shrub's dishonesty and recklessness in using the military.

Minority voters, especially in Florida, are still angry that their votes were stolen in 2000. Meanwhile, the eyes of many new registrants and infrequent voters have been opened to the fact that their old excuse for not voting -- "It doesn't matter who I vote for...both candidates are just as bad" -- just isn't true.

One final, slightly OT note: I hope other organizations besides the networks are doing exit polling. The shenanigans surrounding Florida 2000 and then that exit polling meltdown in 2002 have left a very bad stench in the air, and I would feel more comfortable about the actual returns if there were multiple exit polling operations. Remember, the way that Slobo Milosevic got caught red-handed trying to steal his last election was that the exit poll results conflicted with the vote tally.

[BootinUp]

50. I think the early voting information says we will stomp Bush

The Dems are motivated like never before in my lifetime.

[mellowinman]

51. We just FEEL it!

I've been optomistic all YEAR, but that Redskins game finally did it for me.

If my wife hears me say "we're going to get a landslide like you've never seen in your life" one more time, I will never have sex again.

This will happen.

We will win.

Bush is leaving.

Wave bye-bye to the evil, ugly man.

Bye-bye George.

Bye-bye!