Why a tie (within the MOE) does NOT favor an incumbent.

[Sean Reynolds]

Every poll has this race within a tie. Some polls have Kerry up, other polls have Bush up. But either way, each poll is within the margin of error. Historically speaking, a tie heading into an election does NOT favor an incumbent. Here is why:

1) UNDECIDEDS

This group tends to break toward the challenger. Of course this is logical because they're undecided, and they've had 4 years to make up their mind on the incumbents presidency. If they're not sure at this stage in the game, they have doubts. With that doubt they're probably a bit more willing to break toward the challenger, however that doesn't mean ALL will trend toward Kerry. It does mean though that a big bulk of the undecideds will probably break toward Kerry.

2) Turnout

THIS seems to help Democratic challengers more than Republicans. It's known that when the turnout is high, Democrats benefit the most. IF turnout is high tomorrow, it'll hurt the incumbent president. Possibly being enough to swing the election toward the challenger.

3) Unknown voters

THESE are the typical cell phone voters or 18-24 age range. In other words, cell phone users can't be polled (and we've come to find out that these numbers FAVOR Kerry) and young voters tend to sit elections out. IF most of these cell phone users vote, Kerry wins. IF most of the young voters vote, Kerry wins. These numbers do not show up on the polling we're seeing today.

4) Registered Voters Opposed to Likely Voters

In EVERY poll I've seen John Kerry leads among REGISTERED VOTERS but often is behind either 1 or 2 points with likely voters. Of course who defines likely? Is it a question asked by the pollsters? Or do they gage it by historical reference (those that didn't vote in 2000 probably won't vote in 2004, etc). I have a feeling MORE registered voters will vote THIS election than in 2000. They will swing toward Kerry.

5) Momentum

Which candidate has gained the most in the past week? Well by most accounts, Kerry has. In the Gallup poll he was down 5, now tied. In the CBS Poll he was down 3 yesterday and is now down 1. In the FOX poll he was down 5-6 points and now is up 2. It's quite clear that Kerry has momentum. There should be no reason that this momentum doesn't spill over into election night. That hurts Bush and helps Kerry because the race is tied.

What can we garner from this? Bush is probably in trouble. NO incumbent wants to head into election night TIED with his opponent. Because the odds of him coming out the loser are much greater.

[Sean Reynolds]

1. Bump!

;-)

[xequals]

2. Yes.The polls reflect incumbent's ceiling and challenger's floor. nt