*** POST YOUR ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTIONS HERE ***

[RememberTheCoup]

My goal is to get a consensus on Kerry's chances in each
state. First let me show you what I have right now. This is
based on input from many DUers. Note the nine categories:


	state 		abbr 	 EV 	(2000 results by percentage)
-------------------------------------

9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	53 G, 42 B, 4 N, +11 (moderate Gore)
	New York 	NY 	 31 	60 G, 35 B, 4 N, +25 (strong Gore)
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	55 G, 43 B, 2 N, +12 (moderate Gore)
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	60 G, 33 B, 6 N, +27 (strong Gore)
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	50 G, 45 B, 4 N,  +5 (weak Gore)
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	57 G, 40 B, 3 N, +17 (strong Gore)
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	56 G, 38 B, 4 N, +18 (strong Gore)
	Maine 		ME 	  2/4	49 G, 44 B, 6 N,  +5 (weak Gore)
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	61 G, 32 B, 6 N, +29 (strong Gore)
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	55 G, 42 B, 3 N, +13 (moderate Gore)
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	85 G,  9 B, 5 N, +76 (strong Gore)
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	51 G, 41 B, 7 N, +10 (moderate Gore)
	---------------------------
	total EV		162


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	56 G, 40 B, 3 N, +16 (strong Gore)
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	47 G, 47 B, 5 N,   0 (barely Gore)
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	56 G, 37 B, 6 N, +19 (strong Gore)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 26


7-WEAK KERRY
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	51 G, 46 B, 2 N, +5 (weak Gore)
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	51 G, 46 B, 2 N, +5 (weak Gore)
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	48 G, 46 B, 5 N, +2 (barely Gore)
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	48 B, 47 G, 4 N, -1 (barely Bush)
	Maine 		ME 	  2/4 	49 G, 44 B, 6 N, +5 (weak Gore)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 54


6-BARELY KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	49 B, 49 G, 2 N,  0 (barely Bush*)
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	50 B, 46 G, 3 N, -4 (barely Bush)
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	48 G, 48 B, 4 N,  0 (barely Gore)
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	49 G, 48 B, 2 N, -1 (barely Gore)
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	48 G, 48 B, 4 N,  0 (barely Gore)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 69


5-TOSSUP
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	51 B, 42 G, 5 N, -9 (weak Bush)
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	51 B, 46 G, 1 N, -5 (weak Bush)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 15


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	46 B, 43 G, 0 N, -3 (barely Bush)
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	50 B, 47 G, 2 N, -3 (barely Bush)
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	51 B, 45 G, 3 N, -6 (weak Bush)
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	50 B, 46 G, 2 N, -4 (barely Bush)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 41


3-WEAK BUSH
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	52 B, 44 G, 2 N, -8 (weak Bush)
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	52 B, 46 G, 2 N, -6 (weak Bush)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 18


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	59 B, 38 G, 2 N, -29 (strong Bush)
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	55 B, 43 G, 1 N, -12 (moderate Bush)
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	57 B, 41 G, 1 N, -16 (strong Bush)
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	53 B, 45 G, 1 N,  -8 (weak Bush)
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	62 B, 33 G, 4 N, -29 (strong Bush)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 74


1-STRONG BUSH
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	57 B, 41 G,  1 N, -16 (strong Bush)
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	56 B, 42 G,  1 N, -14 (moderate Bush)
	Kentucky 	KY 	  8 	56 B, 41 G,  1 N, -15 (strong Bush)
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	57 B, 41 G,  1 N, -16 (strong Bush)
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	60 B, 38 G,  0 N, -22 (strong Bush)
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	58 B, 37 G,  3 N, -11 (moderate Bush)
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	58 B, 41 G,  1 N, -17 (strong Bush)
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	67 B, 26 G,  5 N, -41 (strong Bush)
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	67 B, 28 G,  2 N, -39 (strong Bush)
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	59 B, 28 G, 10 N, -31 (strong Bush)
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	58 B, 33 G,  6 N, -25 (strong Bush)
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	61 B, 33 G,  3 N, -28 (strong Bush)
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	60 B, 38 G,  1 N, -22 (strong Bush)
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	68 B, 28 G,  2 N, -40 (strong Bush)
	---------------------------
	total EV		 79


I'd like to keep refining the list. Please continue to post
your suggestions. Instead of posting a completely list, try to
post only states that you think should be moved or "leave
it where it is" posts for states that others suggest
moving and you disagree with. It would help if you put the
state abbreviation and category you think the state should be
moved to in the subject line of your post. For example...


	SUBJECT: MN 6, MO 5, OH 6

	MESSAGE: I think Minnesota should be downgraded to barely 
	Kerry because blah, blah, blah... I think Missouri should
	be upgraded to tossup because yadda, yadda... I think Ohio 
	should be left where it is and not moved as someone else 
	suggested because...


Other things to keep in mind:

1. When I get enough responses I will incorporate the 
   suggestions into a new list. I'll post the list in the 
   thread with the subject line *** NEW LIST***. Please 
   respond to the most current list in the thread.

2. Try to be cautious in your predictions; if we end up 
   moving too many states into the top few categories, the 
   list will not be as useful.

3. Nebraska and Maine can split their votes. It probably 
   won't be an issue for Nebraska, but might be an issue for 
   Maine (ME can only split 2-2, not 3-1)


Let me know if you have any questions! :)

[Greyskye]

1. Self delete

Sorry, didn't read the original request closely enough. As I don't have the time to do requsted detailed analysis, I'm deleting.

My general prediction does stand though:
Kerry 290
Bush 248
Minimum! It could potentially be an even bigger breakout.

You heard it here first. :toast:

[RememberTheCoup]

7. I hope you're right!

:toast:

[Greyskye]

11. Here's a graphical state by state prediction

My original 290/248 predction was from 2 weeks ago. Here is a graphical representation of how I feel the states will go as of today, with a larger margin for Kerry:

[fujiyama]

45. We're not losing MN and IA

N/T

[Rambis]

2. 51% 47% 307 Electoral votes for the next president John Kerry

:toast:

[dr.strangelove]

3. Kerry 274 - Bush 264

Its All About Ohio!

I have Kerry losing Florida due to that vote challenge crap that will disenfranchise enough to give the state to bush.

No matter, we will win without Florida.

[tridim]

4. Kerry 320: Bush 218

Call me crazy, but that's how I see it. That's my final answer.

CO, NM, IA, OH, PA, FL, MI, MN all to Kerry.

[faithfulcitizen]

52. very similar to mine, except...

AR instead of CO. yep, me thinks Clinton & the General will help pull it out. 317/221

[XNASA]

5. Kerry 306, w* 232

Popular vote 51-47 in favor of Kerry.

[RememberTheCoup]

6. Thanks for the input, but... did you read my post?

I'm actually looking for predictions for individual states.

Specifically I'd like suggestions on changes to make to the list I posted.

[faithfulcitizen]

53. sorry, all of the leaning Kerry states, plus AR! :)

[robsul82]

8. Here's my state-by-state picks.

States Given to George W. Bush

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27 (bad feeling, sorry)
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5

States (and a district) for John Kerry

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District of Columbia - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

It all comes down to Ohio...

John Kerry - 284 Electoral Votes
George W. Bush - 254 Electoral Votes

John Forbes Kerry is elected the 44th President of the United States on November 2, 2004.

Later.

RJS

[oddtext]

9. 348

for kerry.

[featherman]

10. This is a reprint of my post from August 1, 2004

NOTE: (The only change MAY be that Kerry may not take AZ and MO this year losing 26 ev's from this and making his new winning EV total
316 - 222. Also CO was assigned to Bush then but is now up in the air)


My approach is past actual vote with historical and demographic trends supported by (or adjusted to) current multiple state census and polling data analysis. According to this model, 1992 was a kind of watershed election for party identification and that the parties split into culturally distinct geographic regions of power.

The DEM strongholds are the Pacific States (HI, CA, OR, WA), Upper Midwest (IL, MI, WI, MN, IA), and the Northeast/Mid Atlantic (DC, MD, WV, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT, ME). This three region coalition of 22 states (inc DC) was a winning 270 EV’s in 2000 but represents a smaller 264 EV's this year It needs 6 more EV’s in 2004 for a majority. All of these states have voted DEM for the past three elections (with the fatal exception of WV and NH in 2000). Bush leads in none at this point this year although some are close.

Opposed is the GOP base: AK, ID, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, TX, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN. Essentially much of the Confederacy, the Plains, and the Mountain States: 18 states with 151 EV's.

Up for grabs and depending on effort and money are the Swing States which are basically the group of states that have voted DEM 1-3 times of the past three elections. Most share a common border with both a GOP and DEM base state and some are trending DEM and some GOP: Southwest Swing (NV, CO, AZ, NM) Midwest Swing (MO, OH, KY) and Southern Swing (TN, AR, LA, FL). 11 states with 112 votes. (There are some anomalies like MT and GA that voted DEM in 1992 but are not included since they seem solidly GOP now).

Bush's big problem, then, is that I doubt he can make much headway with the core DEM 22 against a competitive, well funded candidate and with a weakened Nader candidacy. In the end, it is my opinion that all will vote DEM, some more closely than others, for 264 EVs.

Caveats:
This model requires level playing field (matched spending and effort, no Kerry scandal, no effective October surprise, etc).
I attribute most of the closeness on the 2000 vote in OR, IA, MN, WI, PA and the loss of WV and NH to a combination of above average Nader strength in all those states and a somewhat depressed DEM turnout (Clinton scandal, media-caricatured Gore, apparently harmless "compassionate conservative" Bush, shrinking Gore finances, unopposed NRA effort, local issues, etc)

My call at this early date (assuming the level playing field):
Kerry gets his 22 “base” for 264 plus NV, AZ, NM, MO, OH, FL = 342
Bush gets his 18 “base” for 151 plus CO, AR, LA, TN, KY = 196

Popular Vote: Kerry 51%, Bush 46%, Nader, Libertarian, & other 3%

[redsoxliberal]

12. mine

[rndmprsn]

13. K 284 / B 254

i'm hoping for more...but this is our core...i believe.

[robsul82]

14. Exactly like me, hehe.

284, I think, is gonna be the number.

Later.

RJS

[denny1958]

48. I have the exact prediction.

I crunched the EC numbers last night and arrived at the exact same conclusion as you.
Kerry 284 Bush 254

It's possible Kerry will win Florida and lose Ohio (If enough people are turned away at the polls), but the result will still be good.

Kerry / Edwards '04 is soon to be reality.

[RememberTheCoup]

15. Here's something to consider:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/cook.html

Now I don't know anything about this guy, so don't jump all over me if he's some big Republican or something. It says he talks to two top strategists from each side to come up with his predictions.

Comparing our starting list to his, it looks like he is RELATIVELY more optimistic about LA, NV, HI, and WV.

And he is RELATIVELY more pessimistic about AR, PA, MN, NH.


I also looked at http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
(That's the final prediction, not the current.)

It looks like he is relatively more optimistic about WI, IA, MS, NJ.

And he is RELATIVELY more pessimistic about AZ, AR, HI, NC.


So they both seem to be more pessimistic about Arkansas, but that's the only important information I can glean from these sites.

[Roland99]

16. Here's my Fleetwood Mac Landslide

Popular vote going 52-47.

--------------------------------

http://www.conjur.com/politics - Why George W. Bush is WRONG for America

[Milo_Bloom]

44. This one, on the nose! n/t

[foo_bar]

17. K 282 / B 256

Kerry wins OH/FL/NH, loses WI/NJ/HI.

[Roland99]

18. Loses NJ???

[foo_bar]

25. NJ went to Nixon in 68, Ford in 76

years when PA/NY/WV were blue states. Most times they go with the midatlantic flow, but there's a history of non-bellwether outcomes (in 1916 they voted against favorite son Woodrow Wilson (fondly remembered as a rest stop on the turnpike), who went on to win the election like Carter in 76).

[Stephist]

19. My Final Prediction

Kerry 288 *250

[robsul82]

22. Loses NJ my aiiiiiiiiiiiiice!

Period.

Later.

RJS

[tilsammans]

41. I agree that Kerry takes NJ, but . . .

. . . I wish we had seen some K/E commercials here, especially toward the end of the campaign. And a couple of high-visibility campaign stops in the state.

Just for insurance.

[ncteechur]

20. Kerry 51% Bush 47% Others 2% Kerry wins with 288 EV

[PSU84]

21. K: 311 B: 227

State....Kerry....Bush
AL.................9
AK.................3
AZ................10
AR.................6
CA.......55
CO.................9
CT........7
DE........3
DC........3
FL.......27
GA................15
HI........4
ID.................4
IL.......21
IN................11
IA........7
KS.................6
KY.................8
LA.................9
ME........4
MD.......10
MA.......12
MI.......17
MN.......10
MS.................6
MO................11
MT.................3
NE.................5
NV.................5
NH........4
NJ.......15
NM........5
NY.......31
NC................15
ND.................3
OH.......20
OK.................7
OR........7
PA.......21
RI........4
SC.................8
SD.................3
TN................11
TX................34
UT.................5
VT........3
VA................13
WA.......11
WV.................5
WI.......10
WY.................3
Total...311......227

Estimated popular vote: 122 million total votes cast
KERRY: 50.0%-50.5%
BUSH: 48.0%-48.5%
OTHER: 1.0%- 2.0%

[BootinUp]

23. 316 to 222

[MichDem10]

24. K - 306 / B - 232

[Bleacher Creature]

40. Ditto n/t

[RememberTheCoup]

26. I'm glad people are posting to this thread, however...

...no one is using the system I had requested at the bottom of my original post -- not even close. :shrug:

Oh well. I guess this is still a good way to keep everyone's predictions in one place, but I don't think I'll be able to incorporate everyone's predictions in order to create a "consensus" prediction list the way I had planned. I'm off to volunteer now anyway (phone banking in Ohio), so I won't be back on the thread for a while. :hi:

[Roland99]

27. I think everyone should use the vote simulator at LA Times

[RememberTheCoup]

54. But my goal was to get a CONSENSUS

I wanted to have a single list or display that reflected what DU on the whole was predicting for this election. With the LA Times vote simulator, people will still have to read all the individual posts in the thread to get a feel for how the majority of DUers are thinking. Plus it doesn't distinguish between a strong state like MA and a "barely" state like IA. I was going to do the work of compiling all those thoughts into a single list. But I guess having it all in one thread is the next best thing to having it all in one list or display.

[MallRat]

28. Kerry 279, Bush 259.

Kerry takes all Gore states except New Mexico. Then Kerry flips OH and NH into the BLUE column.

Ohio margin of victory is large enough to dissuade legal challenges by the GOP.

That's my guess.

-MR

[chimpy the poopthrower]

29. I took the liberty of tallying everyone's predictions so far.

1=Kerry, 0=Bush

111111111 Pennsylvania
111111111 Michigan
111111110 Minnesota
111111111 New Hampshire
111111111 Maine 2

011011011 Florida
111111111 Ohio
111111111 Wisconsin
111111110 Iowa
111111111 New Mexico

000010010 Colorado
000000000 Arkansas

000000000 North Carolina
000001000 Missouri
000001000 Arizona
000001000 Nevada

000000000 Virginia
000000000 West Virginia

I left off the no-surprise states. Looks like we have a lot of agreement about most states. Florida is the big wildcard.

[Chichiri]

30. Bush: TX + 100 EVs. Kerry: The rest of them.

eom

[LilKim]

31. Here's mine

http://www.diecastaircraftforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=27481

There should be a betting pool or something. I could use the money.

[Sara Beverley]

32. Kerry 365; Bush 173

That's my final answer!!

[soggy]

33. kerry 302 * 236 bank it!

[soggy]

42. oops, forgot NH and it won't let me edit...

306 kerry
232 bunnypants

[lsuguy]

34. Kerry 311

[chimpy the poopthrower]

35. The critical question is: can Bush steal both OH and FL?

I think in an honest election, Kerry would definitely get both states. Excluding Florida, it looks like almost everyone predicts Kerry will get all the Gore states, plus New Hampshire. That's 264 EV, and he needs 270 to win. If we can get a longshot state like Colorado, we won't even need Ohio or Florida. But is it more likely that we will be successful at preventing vote fraud in at least one of those two big states, or is it more likely that we would grab a longshot like CO or even North Carolina?

[carolinalady]

36. Kerry 305 *233 (nm)

[GDoyle]

37. This has been mine....

This has been mine for awhile Kerry 51 Bush 48 Other 1

EVs Kerry 310 Bush 228

Victory!

GDoyle

[GreenArrow]

38. Popular Kerry 52 Bush 47 Rest 1 Kerry 394 + Electoral votes

Kerry's actual popular vote total would be about 5-7 points higher, but for Republican cheating and chicanery. It wouldn't shock me to see the EV total go over 400. But Kerry only needs 270, and he'll get that.

[demzilla]

39. Kerry 311, Bush 227 unless . . .

Kerry wins all the Gore states plus OH, NH and, yes, FL.

If Kerry wins by more than four points nationally, I think he'll also carry AZ, NV, CO, and AR, for a total of 341 - 197.

Right now, I'm thinking Kerry 51 -- Chimpy 48 -- others 1.

[harpo]

43. Kerry 374 / Chimp 164

[insanity]

46. I have

Kerry 271
Chimp 267
in my scenario Chimp wins Ohio and Flordia (voter fraud) but we win New Mexico which brings the score to 267 all; Hawaii actually cliches the Kerry election.

[RememberTheCoup]

47. If you're going to post vote totals...

...such as "Kerry 275, Bush 263" for example, it would help if you identified the states -- something like "I think Kerry will win all the Gore states except IA and NM and he will also pick up FL." Or something like that.

[faithfulcitizen]

49. Kerry-317 Bush-221!

[phish420]

50. My Map

Hasn't changed in 3 days...



Though Im still very optimistic about NM, and won't be shocked with a win in AR and/or VA either.

can you say LANDSLIDE?!? (Yes, I said it AGAIN...sorry to those who seem to have a problem with the term. GET OVER IT!)

[stevietheman]

51. 291 / 51.9% for Kerry

This is my current estimate, but I may change during the day as I review additional polls and turnout stories.

Updated: Ohio and Colorado appear to be toss-ups.

[foo_bar]

55. kick for the post-exit poll era

[Roland99]

56. Still standing by my prediction!

:D

[demwing]

57. Kerry 284

Hawaii -- 4
California -- 55
Oregon -- 7
Washington -- 11
New Mexico -- 5
Minnesota -- 10
Wisconsin -- 10
Iowa -- 7
Illinois -- 21
Michigan -- 17
Ohio -- 21
Pennsylvania -- 21
New York -- 31
New Jersey -- 15
DC -- 3
Maryland -- 10
Delaware -- 3
Connecticutt -- 7
Massachusetts -- 12
Rhode Island -- 4
Vermont -- 3
New Hampshire -- 4
Maine -- 4
----------------------
TOTAL............284