ZOGBY/REUTERS Bush up one 48-47

[jezebel]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6674749
Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, well within the margin of error, setting up a tense final day in an extraordinarily close race for the White House.

Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 48 percent on Sunday.

"Each candidate continues to do well among his base constituency," pollster John Zogby said. Only three percent of voters remain undecided.

Kerry was favored by young voters -- those between the ages of 18 and 29 -- by 64 percent to 35 percent, but the size of the turnout in that voting bloc is one of the biggest unknowns of Tuesday's election.

Zogby said he was calculating young voters would account for 12 percent of the total vote, but a larger share would be a boost for the Massachusetts senator. "Each point it goes higher translates into two-thirds of a percent for Kerry if these numbers hold up," Zogby said.

Kerry had a 54-40 percent edge among newly registered voters, another unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually vote.

But Bush's strongest issue, national security and the war on terror, moved into second place on the list of most important issues to voters. The economy has been the top issue since the poll started on Oct. 7
Most of the three-day poll was conducted after a threatening new videotape from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden surfaced.

At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by one point in the daily tracking poll.

[Confident]

1. Repeat after me...

Polls don't matter, especially polls well within MOE

Zogby ("the only pollster to get it right in 2000") was viewed by some this weekend as a genius when he spotted Kerry momentum, so we all look silly if we call him evil/stupid/sleazy for polling Bush momentum this morning.

Let's all focus on more positive thoughts today.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Zogby does NOT say there is any Bush momentum. Numbers within MOE!

[melody]

3. Zogby's battleground states look great

His numbers look strong for Kerry today, especially considering the "hidden voter" element.

[unfrigginreal]

5. Are you ****?

Bush momentum? HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!

[A-Schwarzenegger]

6. Why would you call Zogby "evil/stupid/sleazy"?

[Confident]

7. Sorry, all, didn't mean "momentum"....

my real point was that polls this late in game/poll movements this small, totally meaningless

As to evil/sleazy/stupid, nothing personal to J. Zogby folks - point of that comment was that anybody that doesn't say exactly what the board wants them to say, is immediately called a "whore" and worse. IMHO, that is (a) a waste of time, and (b) silly in cases where the pundit/politician/whatever, was recently being praised for somrthing he said that everyone agreed with.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

8. Now you call him a "whore". Sheesh.

[sweetheart]

4. whatever dead heat

I relish the sense of unity that brings us together to win back this
presidency. The only answer is to turn out, to vote, to be counted
and to take back the white house.

"Gandalf and the Elves ride against the dark lord Bush and defeat him again in this late age of men. For any romantic, to not be
with Kerry in this one is to be defeated already." :-)

Kerry's gonna win. And then we'll have the choice of scrabbling
over who gets to be the NEO-Dems, and the completion of PNAC-II.

[jefferson_dem]

9. MOE one point shift down for Kerry. Chimp still stuck at 48.

Yesterday's head-to-head was likely dead-even since 10-28 (2 point Kerry gain) fell off with today's overall #.

[DemNoir]

10. These pools cannot resolve a one point difference

What a joke! Thats like trying to weigh a grain of salt on a bathroom scale.