Wow, even CNN is on board with the Kerry "surge"

[Bucky]

Of course very few votes have shifted in the past couple of months. What's coming to light these past few days is that opinion polls are getting more accurate. Still, expect to hear the punditocracy chatter about how Kerry is a strong finisher and "pulled it out in the last couple of days."

Hogwash. Kerry has been running quite consistantly all through October. He had to win back over his base after a really long September of smear-upon-smear. But the hard numbers have not shifted. Currently the CNN poll, of all things, is showing Kerry ahead in Florida (49-46), Minnesota (52-43), Ohio (50-46), and Wisconsin (52-44) among likely voters.

Only Iowa (46-48) and Pennsylvania (46-50) are going away from Kerry (among LVs). Bush has been working Pennsylvania pretty hard this past week. That's smart politics. Pennsylvania is far more critical for Bush to win. If he loses Ohio, it's over no matter what he does. But if he wins Ohio, he really needs Pennsylvania to close the deal. But I don't think that'll help him. In the end all those not-so-likely voters are going to ruin his day.

Now, as DonkeyRising has pointed out many times, LVs are not a good indicator of final results when there's a high turn out. It looks like this year there's gonna be a HEEEE-UGE turn out. About a third of the people voting are decidedly unlikely voters. The more unlikely the more they seem to like Kerry (or at least the more they seem to be willing to vote for Kerry).

Bush's only chance for winning is if Osama shows up in handcuffs by noon Tuesday. If you give people more than 7 hours to think about that, it'll only help Kerry.

[Pirate Smile]

1. The Dem Moines Register came out with a poll today with

Kerry up 3 points and kicking ass in early voting. We are going to win Iowa.

[Itchinjim]

4. This Iowan concurs,

Iowa is a Kerry state

[Cha]

14. Thanks, Iowa!

:D

[Andromeda]

15. Thanks, this sounds encouraging...

nerve-wracking, but encouraging. :)

[LiberalAndProud]

6. Fox 42 also reported a 3point Kerry lead in Iowa this evening.

[missouri dem]

2. It's is getting too late for rove to pull the rabbit out of his hat.

w* is toast. LANDSLIDE.

[SoCalDem]

9. No white rabbit this tiime Rover.. the brown rabbit is a loser

:)

[Blue_State_Elitist]

3. Today for the first time...

I've really begun to believe that Kerry is going to take this thing. I have volunteered for him and supported him all along, but to be honest it never really seemed possible that the boy king could be unseated. John Kerry in a landslide!

[MidwestTransplant]

5. Actually PA is pretty vital for us. The gallup had us up a couple in RVs

No other poll really has us down in PA.

[pabloseb]

7. Gallup's LV model is a big joke

And it shows clearly in PA. Kerry will win PA by anywhere between 2 and 8 points.

[Bucky]

10. Still, Bush is working the hell out of Pennsylvania. GOTV is vital there

There's always the tinfoil theory that Bush isn't working Ohio because he doesn't have to (*cough*-BBV-*cough*). But if Ohio is a lock for him despite these polls, then everything we do is hopeless. I refuse to be hopeless.

[Philostopher]

17. Not enough BBV in Ohio for them to cheat it.

They'll have to suppress turnout. There are only seven counties using electronic voting in Ohio. And he's working Ohio -- he's here so often I keep having to step over him to get in my car to go to work. Whoever says he's not working Ohio is really living in a fantasy world.

[HuskerDem]

19. Speaking as someone who drove 914 miles to volunteer in Ohio

The air is practically CRACKLING with Kerry/Edwards mojo here. I predict Ohio by 3 points minimum.

PS......... protested dumbya tonight in downtown Cincinnati. It was A BLAST! :headbang:

[Philostopher]

20. Sounds good.

I saw somebody had posted a link to an article where some GoOPer was pissing and moaning about that Shrub rally, because he had to choose between kissing the Naked Emperor's butt and taking his kid out trick-or-treating. Boo-hoo.

I'm hoping for three -- that's about what it'll take to stave off all the challenges, and the potential ballots the GOP may ultimately win the fight to have discareded here. I doubt they'll be able to make legitimate challenges of anything like 3% of the votes -- it needs to be at least that much to make the election over for us here in Ohio Tuesday night, instead of pending litigation for weeks and the state's electoral votes being thrown to Bush* in the end.

Thanks for your efforts, too -- it would be a great coup for Dems to do well in Cincinnati. It's one of the most conservative places I've ever seen.

[0007]

22. Sounds great!

 Vote as if your life depended on it, because it does.

Call 866 687-8683
If Poll Workers refuse you to vote for any reason
If there is a late opening or early closing of a polling place.
If your polling place runs out of ballots or has an incorrect ballot
If you experience poll worker insensitivity or discrimination in the voting process

The civil rights community have set up a toll-free Election Day hotline. This line is
staffed now and, in addition to logging your complaint, the civil rights organizations have law
students and attorneys who can provide assistance on Election Day.

the hotline number is
866 687-8683
202 457-0473 fax

When you call the hotline, be prepared to give your name, telephone number, and note as many
details as possible, including the names of the people who are involved.

[AP]

8. 60% (not 33%) of RVs are unlikely voters (at least in my state).

I think it's the same number nationwide.

[Bucky]

11. Where I got the "one-third" from is based on turn-out estimates.

Current estimates are running way way high--roughly about 75% of the eligible public will be showing up and possibly even getting counted. Normal turn out is around 50%. So I figured the extra 25% were "unlikely voters" (which is not a technical term).

[AP]

21. If normal turnout is 50%...

...that would probably be made up of around 35% likely voters (of the 40% of RV who are likely) and maybe 15% of the 60% who aren't.

If turnout is 75% now, that number is probably made up of about 38% from the 40% of RV who are likely voters and maybe 37% from the other 60% who are unlikely voters.

Among unlikely voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1, so that's great if so many this year are unlikely voters.

[shelley806]

12. Thank you for the post --very encouraging.

I have heard many times that if Kerry wins 2 out of 3 of the following 2 sets of states, he wins the Presidency:

1.) OH, FL, PA and 2.) MN, WI, NM

The ARG poll today had Kerry ahead in all of these states except Minnesota. What do you think about the ARG poll?

http://americanresearchgroup.com


Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

New Mexico 47% 48% 1% 4% 28-30

New Hampshire 47% 47% 2% 4% 28-30

Iowa 48% 47% 1% 4% 25-27

Oregon 46% 50% * 4% 25-27

Wisconsin 47% 48% 1% 4% 25-27

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25

* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot



Continental United States
All voters Oct 30 Oct 4 Sep Aug Jul Jun

Bush 48% 44% 45% 45% 44% 45%
Kerry 48% 47% 46% 49% 47% 46%
Nader 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Undecided 3% 7% 6% 4% 6% 6%
1500 registered voters, October 27-30,
MOE ± 2.5 percentage points

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among all voters (including likely voters) nationwide, with Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48%. With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 48%, and Nader is at 1%. See the results from the October 28-30 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot.

[Renew Deal]

13. CNN has Kerry losing PA by 4?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. but winning arguably more conservative ohio and florida...

doesn't make sense...

[Melinda]

18. (CNN poll) Only among LV; Kerry leads by 2 among RV

FWIW, here is what I think is the best poll site on the net, along with current poll numbers:

http://www.nowchannel.com/latest/

First figure is todays date, 2nd is #electoral votes, all RV:

10-31 15 Kerry by 12% New Jersey 41-53-n-(5) 10/17 - 10/30 Rasmussen Reports
10-31 17 Kerry by 1.9% Michigan 41.3-43.2-1.8-(4) 10/26 - 10/28 Mitchell Research
10-31 10 Kerry by 8% Minnesota 43-51-2-(3) 10/28 - 10/30 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 20 Kerry by 7% Ohio 44-51-n-(3) 10/28 - 10/31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 15 Kerry by 4% New Jersey 44-48-n-(3.6) 10/27 - 10/29 Eagleton-Rutgers
10-31 4 Kerry by 8% Maine 44-52-n-(3.2) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 -- Kerry by 2% USA 45-47-1-(3) 10/29 - 10/30 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics
10-31 -- Kerry by 1% USA 45-46-1-(3) 10/27 - 10/30 Pew/PSRAI
10-31 27 Kerry by 4% Florida 45-49-n-(3) 10/28 - 10/30 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 -- Kerry by 2% USA 46-48-1-(3) 10/29 - 10/31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 21 Kerry by 2% Pennsylvania 47-49-n-(3) 10/28 - 10/31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 17 Kerry by 3% Michigan 47-50-n-(3.9) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 7 Bush by 1% Iowa 47-46-n-(3) 10/27 - 10/30 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 5 Bush by 3% New Mexico 47-44-1-(3) 10/26 - 10/29 Research and Polling Inc.
10-31 -- Bush by 1% USA 48-47-1-(3.1) 10/29 - 10/31 NBC/Wall Street Journal
10-31 -- Bush by 3% USA 49-46-1-(4) 10/28 - 10/30 CBS News/New York Times
10-31 13 Bush by 9% Virginia 49-40-n-(3.6) 10/20 - 10/26 Times-Dispatch/NBC12
10-31 10 Bush by 3% Wisconsin 49-46-1-(3) 10/27 - 10/30 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10-31 7 Tie Iowa 49-49-n-(3.9) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 20 Tie Ohio 50-50-n-(2) 10/20 - 10/29 Columbus Dispatch
10-31 9 Bush by 6% Colorado 52-46-n-(4) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 15 Bush by 12% Georgia 55-43-n-(4) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 10 Bush by 15% Arizona 56-41-n-(4.1) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 11 Bush by 18% Tennessee 58-40-n-(4) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 8 Bush by 21% Kentucky 59-38-n-(4) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 7 Bush by 30% Oklahoma 64-34-n-(3.7) 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA
10-31 5 Bush by 45% Utah 69-24-1-(2.8) 10/21 - 10/28 Dan Jones & Associates