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I found these Hawaii polls from 2000, about three weeks apart. One from ARG and another from the Advertiser:
HONOLULU ADVERTISER A Honolulu Advertiser/Ch. 2 poll, conducted August 11-16, 2000 by Ward Research of Honolulu, surveyed 336 likely voters; margin of error +/- 5.3% (8/21).
General Election Matchup Bush-Cheney 40% Gore-Lieberman 35 Nader 4 Buchanan 1 Browne - None of the Above 1 DK/Refused 20
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP An American Research Group poll, conducted September 5-11, 2000, surveyed 600 likely Hawaii voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/21).
General Election Matchup Bush 29% Gore 57 Nader 2 Others 1 Undec. 11
A remarkable 33 point shift in 25 days. Gore's convention smooch must have played especially well on the islands.
Admittedly, there is another recent poll showing Hawaii close, and ARG was high in 2000 (Gore won by 17+), but here is ARG's September 2004 poll from Hawaii: Sample size: 600 likely voters Sample dates: Sep 7-11 Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points Bush 41 Kerry 51 Nader 4 Undecided 4
Republicans 25% of sample:Bush 88 Kerry 6 Nader 2 Undecided 4 Democrats 52% of sample: Kerry 78 Bush 16 Nader 4 Undecided 2 Independents 23% of sample: Bush 45 Kerry 41 Nader 5 Undecided 8
Yes, the 52-25 partisan sample in favor of Democrats is representative of Hawaii. Especially when the independents in this survey obviously were more GOP than typical. ARG consistently samples better than any other firm, in regard to state party ID tendencies.
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