Hot off the presses: 10/30 Zogby state polls (Good News FL, Bad news Ohio)

[HeldsBelds]

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6666972

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent.

[Catfight]

1. what's the margin of error? nt

[phish420]

34. 2.9%...nt

[TSIAS]

2. If these hold up, it would be good enough to win

If we lose NM but pick up FL, I think that would get us 270. I'd like to see his # on NH.

[saccheradi]

we aint losing NM.

[funky_bug]

3. Still two out of three

We get Florida and Penn, and all the Gore states.

On the flip side, after all the ruckus in Ohio, look for the numbers to be surprisingly different. Nothing pisses people off like the shenanigans going on with voter suppression over there. I see this driving the independants away from the GOP.

[TexasBushwhacker]

11. I was thinking the same thing

I think the people voting for Kerry will have to be dragged away kicking and screaming if they aren't allowed to vote. I think enough of the former Bush supporters are disgusted with the heinous voter suppression by their party that they'll either stay home or vote for Badnarik.

[karlrschneider]

4. those numbers will be reversed in 3 days.

Take that to the bank.

[chascarrillo]

5. If those numbers hold, Kerry wins 286 - 252.

W00t!

[DeepModem Mom]

38. We could win with these Zogby projections --

If he's right -- and I'm not saying he is or is not -- we will have traded Ohio for Florida to give us the two of three among PA, OH, and FL that many have said the winner needs. Of course, counting on Florida, with Jeb in charge, is worrisome.

[venus]

39. I want Colorado! And WV. And Virginia.

Then I'll be happy.

And Ohio. This is key. What's up with my former Buckeye state. Could it be the Arnold factor.

[wellstone_democrat]

6. What is WITH New Mexico?

I lived there for 10 years and the percentage of the population that seemed stupid enough to vote for Bush* wasn't that big. Well, except in Rio Rancho...

[Quixote1818]

10. Bran New ARG Poll has Kerry leading 48 to 47 in New Mexico

[TexasBushwhacker]

13. I'm not confident on the NM numbers

They have too many Hispanics that live by cell phone only (if any phone at all) that are not being polled. They also have one hell of a Democratic governor in Bill Richardson.

[doni_georgia]

43. Bet you the Native American and Hispanic populations are being

under polled

[cubsfan forever]

7. OH must be an outlier

Can't imagine Asshat is REALLY up by 5. Besides, that leaves 7% undecided? Uh, no.

Professor 2

[Laelth]

23. Agreed.

I don't buy those numbers from Ohio at all. Ohio is much tighter than that, I think.

I'm predicting Kerry will win Ohio by a slight margin, 50-49. Get the whole scoop here:

Laelths Election Projection

:smoke:

-Laelth

[liberalpragmatist]

30. Well, Mason-Dixon also had Bush up by 3

There's been some speculation that the race has tightened in Ohio again. That may well be true. It'll be very close and we have to work hard.

Even so, Mason-Dixon still uses a sample that slants more Republican than other polling firms, and Zogby had Kerry up just 2 days ago in Ohio, so it could very well be statistical fluctuations that are common in tracking polls.

My own guess is that Ohio is narrowly leaning Kerry.

[Mr_Spock]

8. Where are NH numbers?

Just curious...

[HeldsBelds]

9. zogby doesn't poll NH

[Mr_Spock]

12. Why?

[HeldsBelds]

14. because he's giving it to Kerry

[TexasBushwhacker]

15. Don't forget - CO might split their electoral votes

That would likely mean 5 for Bush and 4 for Kerry.

[fishwax]

25. I've heard that's unlikely to pass, though

At least, most of the recent polls I've seen show it trailing pretty heavily. But of course, nothing is definite until Tuesday.

[TexasBushwhacker]

32. Well, I think that's best

It may represent the voters choice better, but ultimately they would get less attention from both parties during the campaign, because both sides would know that they aren't going to get all of the electoral pie. If anything, it would be more appropriate in large states, essentially turning them into swing states. Kerry hasn't spent hardly any money running ads in Texas, and who can blame him? Bush, on the other hand, is basically ignoring California and New York. The only big states that are getting attention are the ones where the election is very close - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

[Reciprocity]

16. No worries here.

The bottom line from what I gather is for an incumbent president Bush is not polling well and is in trouble. Only one out of six people who are called participate in polls. One out of six ! Historically undecideds break for the challenger. Take heart Ann Richards on Larry King said that the republican new voter registration is up 25% and the democratic registration is up 250% . I'll take them odds any day.

[deadparrot]

17. I thought that the * campaign gave up on OH.

[Maestro]

18. With Jon Stewart

Zogby stated that Kerry would win because of those that are undecided and high turn-out at the polls. I am confident that in the end we will have the popular and electoral votes.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jasper 91]

20. Freeper , you have just posted this

On another thread . Have you got nothing new to say ?

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

21. Oh lookie... Trollie McTroll

is back....

[Buck Rabbit]

22. I vote you off the Island. Have a nice swim.

[Don Claybrook]

24. That's not garden-variety crack in your pipe, is it?

You must've got hold of some real rocket fuel.

Tuesday is going to feel like a real kick in the gut for you, isn't it? Well, if I may pass along some advice I was given 4 years ago:

GET OVER IT!

[helpisontheway]

26. Clinton is working on New Mexico right now!

[West Coast Democrat]

27. But ARG has Kerry up by 2% in Ohio 49-47

w/ 4% undecided

http://americanresearchgroup.com

[liberalpragmatist]

28. I don't believe any of these

The Zogby daily tracking poll in the battlegrounds is this year's 2000 Gallup Tracking Poll. The fluctations in this poll are just too extreme to trust.

I still trust Zogby's national polling - he has a good track record for that. But these state polls don't jibe. And Bush leading Kerry 49-44 in Ohio? Doubtful. Kerry's been leading almost all the major polls in the state. who knows - Bush may win Ohio, but I really think Kerry will, and Bush certainly doesn't have a 5-point lead there, even if he is ahead.

[iceman_419]

29. whooa zogby needs to go back to polling school

Bush is not ahead in Ohio, that is a known fact. With Kerry owning Florida now, the election is going well. All this means is that we need a strong voter turn out and Kerry wins. Zogby knows that his own polling can be questionable and this proves it. I know he is saying that Kerry will win, but some of these numbers are ridiculous.

[usregimechange]

31. Check out WI! FL big news as well. nt

[harpo]

33. Where are the Texas numbers?

:puke:

[soggy]

35. i'd take these numbers in a heartbeat.

i can live with 286-252, although i don't believe for a second we're behind in OH.

[DivinBreuvage]

36. As an Ohioan I can't believe those Ohio stats

Granted, it's just a feeling, but in my own little unscientific survey I've been keeping track of the bumper stickers I see every day. Kerry stickers have always outnumbered Bush, but the Kerry stuff has really erupted here in the past week or so. If anything Kerry is pulling ahead. The tally thus far:

Kerry: 301
Bush 232

[fujiyama]

37. I dont think

Kerry has a bigger lead in Wisconsin than he does in Michigan. ANd I don't think Bush is up 9 in New Mexico.

These numbers are screwy. I do like the Florida numbers though.

[Ell09]

40. I'd rather win Florida than Ohio

It's 7 more Electoral votes for us, I'd take that trade any day of the week.

Some of the other polling numbers are not the greatest (ie only being up ONE in Michigan which I highly doubt), but we win if Zogby's numbers hold.

How sweet would it be to stick it in Jeb's face with a big W (as in WIN) in Florida to seal his brothers face?

[depakid]

41. Yawn. More bogus polls

It will sure be nice when DU gets back to normal and we don't have to see all this nonsense anymore.

Personally, I'm looking forward to figuring out how we're going to clean up all this mess. It's going to be a lot of hard work.

[doni_georgia]

42. Still statistical ties in most of the battleground states

Except NM for Bush and Wisconsin for Kerry