Maybe I'm due for a tinfoil hat or a long rest...

[Hans Delbrook]

BUT this is my take on the OBL tape.

I've long held that OBL is in Saudi Arabia - it's the only place he could so well hidden and so well taken care of. And his family just wouldn't turn him away when he had no where else to go. Blood is thicker than anything.

Considering how tight the entire BFEE is w/ the Saudis - they probably know that he's been there for some time. And Chimpy is helpless to get the Saudi Royal family to turn him over. That's why he started downplaying the whole, "Hunt him down and kill him" thing. And another reason why it was a good idea to distract everyone w/ Saddam and Iraq.

OBL probably has been making a tape a month or even a week for years now. The Saudis turned this one over to Chimpy a while ago and KKKarl has been holding it back knowing that it's a double-edged sword. (Could cut either way.)

Last week when the news for Chimpy was so bad, especially about the missing explosives - they tried everything. "It was like that when we got here; Oh, the Ruskies took them; No it was the French; Hey, here's a fake terror tape."

When none of this worked it was time to play this last trump card. But they very carefully released it late on Friday. That way they could assess it's effectiveness over the w/e. If it wasn't helping or even hurting - they bury the story.

BUT if it seems to be helping Bush they play it up for all it's worth all day Monday.

Anyway, maybe it's been a long election season but that's my take on it. It's the only thing that makes sense to me.

[elehhhhna]

1. I've thought he's in SA for YEARS. He's a millionaire, for gosh sake--

with family there. He is not eating sheep-guts out of a coffecan in some cave. Plese.

[truthseeker1]

2. Agree

This is pretty much what I've been saying (not sure about the "OBL in Saudi Arabia" part) - but I definitely think Rove has had this tape in the can for awhile and holding it, only to play it if they are desperate - which they are. Now they have to see how it plays out. But you're right, the late Friday release is an indicator that it's not a hole-in-one type of story for Bushco.

[chiburb]

3. Entirely plausible, no tin foil for you...

Nicely done.

[Jersey Devil]

4. Same thoughts I had, except a different take on where he is

which really doesn't matter much. That they had this tape in the can for a while is a certainty imo

[knowbody0]

5. the news this week

is impossible to behold.100,000 dead iraqis, 50 slaughtered recruits,380 tons missing explosives. to imagine existence in iraq for its citizens and our military leaves one nauseas and shamed that these things are done in our name.
to see UBL, peacefully, calmly declaring that 911 was reactive strike against the US policies against islamic countries over the last 25 years, that our government lies to we the people, that we are killing innocent civilians who do not HATE our freedom; this on the eve of our preparation to obliterate one more holy city.
our media now certifiable distributors of misinformation, this administration-more corrupt than any in our history, we desperately cling to the threads of the internet, and the hope that our candidate will end the madness.

[GreenPoet64]

6. If were wearing a tinfoil hat I'd say that Kkarl really WAS dressed up

in that scarf and glasses (the earlier tape of that nerdy terrorist) to send out a trial balloon so they could do some preliminary polls and see if it was worth it to air the OBL video. :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat:

[jacksonian]

7. "If it wasn't helping or even hurting - they bury the story."

This is the only part I didn't agree with. There's no burying the story, you roll the dice and take what falls. They got to play this for all its worth.

OBL is grand theme of the Bush presidency, the only realpolitik theme of his administration. On cue, the USS Cole spread fear to help get him elected. 9/11 swelled him with an undeserved popularity he trying to hedge into a second term right now. And then OBL at closing press time on the Friday before the election with a specifically American political message?

I can't make accusations because I don't know. But given Bush's Saudi connections, the correlations between OBL and Bush's political leveraging is not passing the smell test bigtime.