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Historically one candidate makes a move in the polls the weekend before the election. It's Friday, we may very well see a strong shift to either candidate. By Monday polls may give a clearer image of where we stand.
Take 2000 as an example. Bush pretty much was ahead the whole summer. In fact his lead dipped into double digits many of times. The final weekend of polling showed the race a dead heat, with the slight edge going to Bush. Al Gore closed the gap, which pushed him over the top in the popular vote on election night.
In 1996 Bob Dole had a late surge in the final days of the election. Pretty much every poll had him down 10 or so points, however he came closer in the popular vote, though he did lose the EC by a landslide.
In 1992 George Bush had a late surge after being 10 or so points behind Clinton. The late surge however was not enough to win him a second term.
Not sure about the 1988 election.
In the 1984 election Mondale closed the gap on Reagan in the popular vote big time. He was down a lot of points heading into election night. But the gap was too large, Mondale lost in a landslide.
Reagan closed the gap and over took Carter in the final days of the election in 1980.
With this election being so close, IF there is a surge in polling, that candidate probably will win. So watch the polls, but also note that they're not always right in close elections.
Zogby had Kerry going down 3 to tied with Bush in his latest tracking poll. If Kerry gains the lead and build on it by Tuesday, he should win.
It'll be telling where the Washington Post poll is at. I have a feeling Bush may keep his lead in that one though.
I guess we wait and see. We MAY have a better feel of things come Monday morning.
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