The "Undecided" Vote - - Am I Wrong?

[Midwest_Doc]

Among those stating a preference, most polls say that Bush and Kerry are tied. Traditionally, in Presedential elections, the undecideds go to the challenger - which would clearly put Kerry ahead. Am I wrong to be optimistic?

[LibDemAlways]

1. That's what the pollster Zogby said on

The Daily Show last night. He called it for Kerry, saying the undecideds will break his way. He sounded very confident.

[Zuni]

3. Here is what I say to that

Hooray :toast:

[ramapo]

2. Hope for the best....

but plan for the worst:)

[sduncang]

4. Nope. Be optimistic.

Of course this is going to be close...but, there's a couple of very good sites to watch the trend of the undecideds..

http://www.electoral-vote.com/index.html

http://www.nowchannel.com/swing/

Looks like a win to me...(fingers are crossed).

[tomfodw]

5. That's the conventional wisdom

The idea is, if you were pleased enough with the incumbent to decide to reward him with a second term, you already would have done so. If you haven't decided to do that by now, you probably aren't going to.

[tres_bohemienne]

6. Also consider accuracy of polls

More reason for optimism:

The polls say that Bush & Kerry are tied in terms of the # of people who were polled. But who wasn't polled:

A.) People who only have cell phones and no landlines. I read in the paper yesterday that that number is estimated to be anywhere between 3 - 18%. I'd bet dems are more likely that reps to be those cell only people.

B.) People who refused to take the call altogether. Someone told me---and I'll love to know more about this---that only about 20% of people actually take polls. What about the rest? There's no telling which way those people will sway.

I think that this race just doesn't follow the old models of polling. We're in the midst of a new paradigm. We gotta change the way we do things.

www.stopthecrap.org

[Midwest_Doc]

7. Interesting Point

Dewey beat Truman in all of the pre-election polls in 1948 because the polls ignored the then-large number of people without telephones.

[jacksonian]

8. optimism is called for

but remember these are human votes we're talking about, not just some numbers to paste in.

It does look like Kerry's going to win if we can get the people to the polls.