Take Toby Ziegler's advice and STOP TEMPTING FATE!

[Selwynn]

West Wing fans - remember when Congress was confirming the White House's Supreme Court nomination? And West Wing were all celebrating before it was over and Toby freaked out, took away everyone's champagne glasses and asked them if they've ever heard of a little thing called tempting fate.

He asked them in the last two years what kind of luck they'd had? the answer of course, was very bad luck - things weren't going all that well for the White House. He said that not a drop of champagne, or a single balloon, nor any cheer was to be uttered by anyone until the TV screen showing C-Span showed 51 YAE votes on the screen.

The moment that happened, it was Toby who popped the Champagne and was as happy to celebrate as anyone else.

This post is to second Will Pitt's post - I too feel like if I see one more Kerry Landslide post, or one more person who threatens a long standing community member and tells him or her they're comments aren't welcome because they're not blind and unquestioning I am going to scream.

In the last four years what kind of luck have Democrats had? What kind of luck? We've had VERY BAD LUCK. I will not be tempting fate. The moment John Kerry has locked the electoral college and all polls have closed and votes been counted, then I will celebrate with the best of you - but NOT ONE MOMENT BEFORE THEN. Right now, ITS TOO FUCKING CLOSE TO CALL, and its not time to get overconfident.

We need to keep vigil. I know a lot of DUers are actively working with local or national groups monitoring the elections and are involved in trying to stop the FRAUD that is already going down by republicans in attempts to undermine a fair election process. THAT'S what matters. I want to be on the media watchdog crew, emailing and telephoning the media and calling them on their bullshit in the days leading up to the elections. I want to pay careful attention to groups like the ACLU , who has a ton of information on their site about election concerns already occurring and what we can do to help.

Right now, I think its just as likely Bush wins through stealing or whatever as it is Kerry wins. In fact, I think its more likely. And you know what, I think that's exactly the attitude we should all have while we work our asses off, right up to the point where it is all conclusively over. Then, and only then, if we win, will I celebrate.

[WVRevy]

1. So...

...should we also walk outside, turn around twice, and spit ?

:-)

Sorry...Big West Wing fan (when Sorkin was writing, anyway)...and I don't really believe in "luck"...I leave the superstitious bullshit to the right wingnuts and the Christian Coalition.

That said...I'm STILL "working like we're five points down"....Just not afraid to say that I think we WILL win.

[Selwynn]

5. YES!!!!!!! OMG YES!!! GO NOW !! NOW I TELL YOU!!! :)

[WVRevy]

8. lol....Poor Sam....

...That show really started going down hill after Rob Lowe took his big head elsewhere...Now, Sorkin must HATE what they've done to it. Hell, after how they were writing Leo's character last year, I'm almost glad they killed him off.

Wouldn't it be awesome to actually have a liberal president like Bartlett ? A man more prone to quoting Shakespeare than Bud Light commercials ?

[Selwynn]

13. I don't really think it was Lowe's departure that did it - I think....

..that it was really easy to trace the decline: when Sorkin left after season four, that was the end of quality west wing. The west wing that we knew and love was torn down and replaced by something completely different.

I hated the departure of sam, but frankly when Sorkin was still there he WROTE Will's character VERY WELL and the chemistry between he and Toby was good. Of course then in season five the said, "hey I know, let's make Will and Toby hate each other and then we'll shuffle will to the VP office and never have him in a serious part of the show ever again!" Brilliant.

[Longhorn]

18. Leo isn't dead.

He just won't be chief of staff any more. He's going to be the President's trusted advisor.

[Selwynn]

21. Have they said who is the NEW Cheif yet? I've read the scripts...

..so I know, but wasn't sure if it was said yet.

[Longhorn]

25. Yes.

I saw Allison Janney on some show -- can't remember -- and she confirmed that C.J. will be the new chief of staff. That should be interesting!

I still love the show. I haven't noticed any decline in quality at all. :shrug:

[Selwynn]

28. If I could access the archive I could show you....

...my thoughts on tracing the show's decline. It's not absolute obviously - its opinion. But I'd show you my case for arguing that the show has gone downhill.

[TrogL]

2. Don't forget Get Out the Vote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1213073

[klook]

3. I agree 100 percent

We are tied in the ninth inning. The champagne remains on ice until we bring in the winning run.

[DemNoir]

4. Breaking News

Those are fictional characters.

The reality based community is preparing for a KERRY L A N D S L I D E!

[Selwynn]

6. I've taken your screen name, and will be reminding you of your comments.

On November 2nd. The "reality-based" communtiy, can do nothing else, but acknowledge that it is a close election this year, and that all indicators point to a close win, not a landslide. To do anything else is to not live in "reality" but to give way to emotionalistic wishful thinking.

But I've already made a note, and I'll be reposting your comments Nov 2nd, so see you then.

[fishwax]

22. That could be a violation of the post-election rules

Why would you do it, particularly if we lose? To rub it in? To say "I Told You So"?

Different people are going to get motivated different ways. It doesn't mean anybody is working any less hard just because they are motivating themselves with thoughts of a Kerry landslide. Frankly, I don't see why that bothers people. If you don't buy into it, then go with whatever works for you. As long as we all keep slugging away until it's all said and done.

[Selwynn]

30. Because accountability is a good thing.

[fishwax]

32. Accountability for what?

For losing the election by being overly positive, thus causing thousands and thousands of would-be kerry voters to stay home from the polls, thousands and thousands of volunteers to spend the weekend cow-tipping instead of working? All because he'd rather follow what makes him tick than take Toby Ziegler's advice?

[calmblueocean]

7. I think there are two kinds of Democrats.

One that is motivated by fear, the other that is motivated by hope.

Each time we hopeful "Kerry-in-a-landslide!" Democrats see the fearful "But-Drudge-just-said!" Democrats post another self-defeatist, hand-wringing, rumor-mongering thread, we get angry and annoyed. We come to DU to get energized, and to share our own excitement and motivation, not to get rained on by Eeyores who see the grey cloud in every silver lining.

I personally think people are more likely to go out and vote if they're motivated by Kerry-in-a-landslide! excitement rather than Drudge/Fox/Rush fear, and that's why it annoys me to see so many people that seem bent on undercutting our momentum and confidence at this crucial date.

You're free to do it, and free to disagree, of course, but I don't think it helps us.

[Selwynn]

10. I don't agree with that oversimplistic generalization.

Here is a better breakdown, though even this is a generalization.

1) Democrats of blind, unreasonable fear
2) Democrats of blind, unreasonable hope
3) Democrats whose fear is kept in check by rationality, reason, critical thinking and an honest and non-partisan evaluation of the evidence.
4) Democrats whose hope is balanced by rationality, reason, critical thinking and an honest and non-partisan evaluation of the evidence.

All I ask is that we try to be #3 or #4, not #1 OR #2.

If your optimistic, be cautiously optimistic. If you're skeptically, be reasonably skeptical. Don't tempt fate.

[calmblueocean]

26. Ain't no such thing as fate.

"Fate" isn't a rational concept. There's nothing to tempt.

Saying "Kerry in a landslide" doesn't call down the gods of doom to punish us for hubris. It's like Clinton's "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow" -- that doesn't make you ignore today!

Everyone here is going to do all they can to get Kerry elected. You know that, right? Everyone. So are we going to enjoy ourselves while doing it, and energize ourselves to do more, or are we going to to be defeatist and handwringing, expending energy on useless fearmongering? That's the way it feels to me.

[Selwynn]

29. Don't ignore the first 95% of my post for the sake of the last sentence.

I agree that there is really no such thing as a "fate" to "tempt." Though I still like Toby's character and his comments. However, I believe that the only appropriate mindset to have, based on a life of reason and rationality is #3 or #4. And that's all I'm really asking.

[cheezus]

9. for many of us, the LANDSLIDE is a huge motivator

and by the same token, believing we're behind and going to lose motivates us to just give up.

[Selwynn]

11. I guess I'm just more motivated by reality than fantasy.

But I mean, maybe I'm weird...

[cheezus]

19. well, I'm not going to try and take away what works for you

but I'm more motivated by hope than fear

who knows, maybe I'm the weird one

[Selwynn]

20. I'm not motivated by *blind* hope or *blind* fear.

I don't think either are healthy or helpful.

[DarienComp]

12. toby!

sam: you wrote a concession?

toby: of course I wrote a concession. you wanna tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?

sam: no.

toby: than go outside turn around three times and spit.

[Selwynn]

17. I *loved* that bit.

[rocktivity]

14. VISUALIZE WINNING--And that's an order!

This is no time to be self-sabotage and fearing success! Haven't you been listening to those hynotherapist commercials on Air America radio?

http://www.needlenose.com/win04/vote2.htm

:headbang:
rockantion

[Hello_Kitty]

15. Everyone on this board should feel like it is his/her PERSONAL

responsibility to ensure victory for Kerry. It's not Someone Else who is going to get the vote out, it's me. I didn't feel that way in 2000 and look what happened. Yeah, I know Gore won the popular vote but it shouldn't have even been close enough for them to steal the election.

[calimary]

16. Excellent post! I'm glad we're all stoked, but THIS IS NO TIME TO GET

COMPLACENT!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's have a HUGE celebration after it REALLY IS in the bag. Not yet. There's still enough time left for the rove machinery to roll something out. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, as Mad-Eye Moody would tell Harry Potter. WE HAVE TO STAY FOCUSED!!!

[WilliamPitt]

23. If I see one balloon before...yeah, you BETTER run!

[Selwynn]

31. Go outside turn and spit! :)

[Stephanie]

24. I'm about to post ordering everyone to stop giving orders to everyone else

But then I would have to post in my own thread to tell myself to stop telling myself what to do.

[fishwax]

27. I'd support you

both times :)