From the Miami Herald: Bush's numbers not so good.

[Lex]

.
From the Miami Herald today:

----------------------

Presidential poll may track big changes in Dade

If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.

And if that's true, President Bush is in trouble.

The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.

Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.

If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high.

Full article: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/jim_defede/10033111.htm

To log into the Miami Hearld to read this article use:

email: [e-mail]
password: empty1

[pabloseb]

1. Good article!

:bounce: :hi: :bounce: :hi: :bounce: :hi:

[cthrumatrix]

15. good to see some "real numbers"..... this is huge.... Tampa early voting

lines have been long all week.

I voted this morning....!

[Lex]

16. You voted so you should get yourself the "I voted" avatar!

[Chiyo-chichi]

2. Yippee-de-hoo-haw-hey! eom

[gumby]

3. L+A+N+D+S+L+I+D+E

for sure.

[bettyellen]

4. THANK YOU LEX!

:grouphug:

[Raster]

5. As $hrubco already knows, the only way to win Florida is to steal it.

Let's call it what it is: 21st century plantation mentality. Let's call them what they are: liars, cheats and thieves.

[Renew Deal]

6. I'm poll watching in Miami.

I hope it stays cool. I will fight for Kerry.

[aaronbees]

7. beautiful news...!

let's hope the votes are counted!

[Gman]

8. Well, 50,000 missing ballots in Broward ought to take care of that

the right wing will never ever let FL go without the biggest fight you've ever seen.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. Perhaps the Herald has taken that into account. nt

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

9. We have to GOTV!!!!

Kerry's team has all the votes we need to win....we just need to make sure those votes get to the polls...

Could this be any simpler??? NOOOO!!!!

The Kerry team have already identified all the voters that they need, that have expressed that they want to vote kerry.....

We just need to make sure everyone one of them vote....join the effort, if every one here just got 10 other people to the polls that would be 500,000 Kerry votes....we have to do all we can to:

GET OUT THE VOTE!

Please join the efforts, and you will sleep soundly on Tuesday night!

[autorank]

10. Thank you Lex!

[Lex]

14. sure thing!

I hadn't heard about this particular analysis by the Miami Herald in any of the many pundits on cable news. I was glad to read it--it makes sense.

[DeepModem Mom]

11. Kick!

[PermanentRevolution]

12. It's true, and it's fantastic

If Coral Gables is showing a 2-to-1 turnout for Kerry in early voting (an estimate based on my experience outside the early-voting place today and yesterday) then Dade is definitely going to go for him, and by a large margin. And I'm friends with the guy running the canvassing and poll-watching teams in Broward. He's calling Broward at 70% for Kerry. We'll see how close he is, but he's not sweating at all. I met him for a beer earlier tonight, and he told me he's planning on adding another 200 volunteers to his crews for election day. GOTV and we can drive Florida into that deep blue territory we all know it should be!

[fujiyama]

13. Hell Yeah!

I want to see Kerry win it by a margin of over a 100k votes. Only then will, will it be harder to steal.

[Road Scholar]

17. Great!!! Thanks Lex!!!!!!! n/t

:kick:

[UCLA Dem]

18. whooohooo!!!!!!!!!

[Iceburg]

19. Bush numbers going down ...

[Zuni]

20. Didn't FL 'lose' 50,000 Ballots?

I think the Bush team is going to fight to disenfranchise every voter possible --- starting with 50,000 in Broward.

[Homerr]

21. holy F !!!!!!!!!!

[DuaneBidoux]

23. Seems like you would need more than to win Miami-Dade 56 to 43?

With the panhandle and that area where the cousins are all married and everyone votes Rethuglican.

[muchacho]

24. Shrub is going down

[yardwork]

25. The Miami Herald editor was on Tweety last night - said Kerry would win FL

Last night's show was good. The MH editor pointed out that the Latino population in FL is not homogenous - Latinos come from all over the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central and South America, and they have many different issues. The bushistas count on the old-timer Cuban vote to go Republican, but the Haitians, for example, are not very happy with bushco right now.

Most importantly, though, the African Americans in Florida are extremely motivated to vote for Kerry because of their disenfranchisement in 2000 and 2002. When Chris Matthews asked, "How strong is that feeling," the editor responded, "There are no numbers high enough to express how strongly the African American community feels about this election." Then, with Matthews's prompting, the editor listed some of the ways in which Republicans have attempted to intimidate African American voters in FL this year. He said it makes them all the more committed to get to the polls.

I don't think that Jeb is going to be able to steal this one without making it so blatant that it can't get away with it.