I Expect A Few More " California's In Play" Like Polls Before This
Edited on Wed Oct-27-04 08:47 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
Election Is Over...
There's a new quinnipiac poll at www.realclearpolitics.com that has NJ in a dead heat...
A few things to keep in mind...
Kerry leads by four or five among registered voters....
There's no party id breakdown
It's contradicted by other polls....
Bush's bounce for visiting will wear off... There have been studies where candidates can temporarily move numbers just by visiting an area...
This is the biggest point... Although we were burned in 00 and I am sure the data will support me it's difficult to win the pop vote by a point or so and lose the EC vote...
1. RV = LV in NJ this year - huge turnout predicted
Our largest turnout was in 1992 with 82% voting. From what I have seen on the ground here in NJ the turnout may even be larger. Last night at local hdq we had 3 repubs drop in for Kerry signs if that give you any indication. NJ is NOT in play. Here are the polls that have been done in NJ so far.
Kerry by 8% New Jersey 41-49-0-(4.5) 10/13 - 10/21 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 8% " 43-51-n-(3.8) 10/16 - 10/18 SurveyUSA Kerry by 10% " 38-48-3-(3.5) 10/14 - 10/17 Eagleton-Rutgers Kerry by 4% " 45-49-1-(2.9) 10/14 - 10/17 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 2% " 42-44-2-(4.5) 10/8 - 10/14 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 5% " 43-48-n-(4.5) 10/7 - 10/11 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 8% " 41-49-n-(4.5) 10/1 - 10/6 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 7% " 40-47-1-(3.8) 10/1 - 10/6 Eagleton-Rutgers Kerry by 9% " 44-53-n-(5) 9/26 - 10/10 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 3% " 46-49-2-(3.4) 10/1 - 10/4 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 5% " 45-50-n-(3.8) 10/1 - 10/3 SurveyUSA Kerry by 8% " 42-50-2-(4) 10/1 Research 2000 Kerry by 1% " 44-45-1-(4.5) 9/23 - 9/28 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 3% " 46-49-n-(5) 9/12 - 9/25 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 4% " 43-47-3-(3.2) 9/16 - 9/19 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 8% " 42-50-1-(4) 9/13 - 9/16 American Research Group Bush by 4% " 49-45-n-(3.7) 9/12 - 9/14 SurveyUSA Kerry by 4% " 39-43-5-(3.7) 9/3 - 9/7 Eagleton-Rutgers Kerry by 4% " 46-50-n-(5) 8/21 - 9/3 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 10% " 39-49-4-(3.3) 8/19 - 8/23 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 11% " 41-52-2-(4) 8/18 - 8/19 Research 2000 Kerry by 8% " 43-51-n-(5) 8/1 - 8/26 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 20% " 32-52-3-(4) 7/30 - 8/4 Eagleton-Rutgers Kerry by 13% " 36-49-6-(3.1) 7/30 - 8/2 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 10% " 40-50-n-(4) 7/26 - 7/28 Research 2000 Kerry by 1% " 41-42-6-(3.5) 7/20 - 7/26 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 13% " 38-51-n-(5) 7/1 - 7/31 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 6% " 40-46-7-(2.9) 6/15 - 6/20 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 10% " 41-51-n-(5) 6/1 - 6/30 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 12% " 39-51-n-(5) 5/1 - 5/31 Rasmussen Reports Kerry by 3% " 43-46-5-(2.9) 5/10 - 5/16 Quinnipiac University Kerry by 9% " 40-49-n-(4) 4/28 - 5/4 Eagleton-Rutgers Kerry by 12% " 39-51-n-(4.5) 4/20 Rasmussen Reports Bush by 4% " 48-44-5-(3.5) 4/3 - 4/10 Fairleigh Dickinson University Kerry by 15.8% " 40.3-56.1-3 2000 Bush vs Gore
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