Rasmussen Battleground for 10/26

[louis c]

Rasmussen's 3 day national tracking poll has the race dead even at 47.8% each. This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday. However, Kerry has taken a 1.5% lead in the 16 battleground states polled for the same period at 48.7%-47.2%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby's 3 day sampling for the same period has Bush ahead 49%-46%.

http://www.zogby.com

The Rasmussen 7 day rolling averages for 5 key battleground states are:

Florida, Tie 48% (This is unchanged for the fourth straight day)

Ohio, Bush 50%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 52%-47% (This margin is unchanged from yesterday)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-45% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-47% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

[Doosh]

1. no way is Bush gaining in Ohio and Minnesota

[Jersey Devil]

3. a couple points either way could just be statistical noise

Let's not get overexcited about every little move. The fact is that it is so close that turnout is going to decide it no matter what these polls show from here on out.

[northernsoul]

4. over my dead body is MN going red

:kick:

[Thegonagle]

6. Agreed on Minnesota. . .

I just know; Something is in the air.

We might be sending one or two more Dems to the US Congress this year too--great news if it happens.

[lancdem]

7. I agree

He's not leading in either state, period. The other three states have numbers similar to other polls (Kerry up in Michigan and PA, and basically tied in Florida).

[snowbear]

2. Hey Scott...

Yeah.. I'm talking to you RASMUSSEN :mad:

..."Ohio, Bush 50%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)"


:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[sonicx]

5. Bush's aides are scared of losing OH and Kerry's aides are happy with OH

I doubt he's up 4.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Similarly, I doubt Kerry is up by 3 or 4 in Ohio

Just common sense. Ohio is traditionally 3 to 4 points more GOP than the nation in general. We may be able to project that to even partisanship given added emphasis and registrations, plus the poor Ohio economy and job loss.

Anything beyond that is an unreasonable stretch, IMO. In a state with a huge population it's much more difficult to net several percent via new voters or higher core participation. Ohio figures to mirror the nation's vote, maybe within 1% either way. Kerry needs to win the national popular vote to carry Ohio.

[pabloseb]

10. Ohio WAS a little bit more GOP than the nation

But after 4 years of * Ohio suffered the worst economic consequences, so this time Ohio will be very close to the whole nation.

I personally think Rasmussen polls are giving reasonable result, even in MN, since 2pts is well within the MOE. So the 4 pt lead in Rasmussen *is* bad news, but it's just one poll. There are several others that show a tie or a slight advantage to Kerry. Even the last strategic vision poll (dubya's polling firm) gives a 1 pt lead to Bush, which translates as a 3-4 pt lead for Kerry.

Bottom line: the race is close, nationally and in Ohio. If turnout is as huge as early voting is suggesting, we can remain cautiously optimistic.

And as always, thanks Louis for the insight into the premium polls.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I agree completely; I tried to say that in post #9

"Ohio is traditionally 3 to 4 points more GOP than the nation in general. We may be able to project that to even partisanship given added emphasis and registrations, plus the poor Ohio economy and job loss."

[sonicx]

12. Kerry CAN be up 3

ABC's OH exit poll from 2000 had dems at a 1% voting advantage. Both Gore and Bush had about equal partisan support.

BUT bush won the state cuz he won independents. Kerry can do that this year.

[annerevere]

8. Thank you for the access to premium numbers

It's good to keep updated.