Zogby's Numbers when you apply the encumbent rule! Take a look

[Quixote1818]

They say that the encumbent usually looses a point and the challenger picks up three to four percent. I will be conservative and give Kerry only three points to be safe. Here is what happens:



Bush wins these 37 Electoral Votes

Ohio (Bush 46 Kerry 45) I don't believe this poll. Most other say different
Iowa (Bush 46 Kerry 48)Turnout shows Kerry has momentum.
New Mexico (Bush 49 Kerry 47) Most polls say different
Nevada ( Bush 48 Kerry 47)Nader wont get three percent. Nevada goes to Kerry

Kerry wins these 94 Electoral Votes


Wisconsin (Bush 47 Kerry 48)
Florida (Bush- 48 Kerry - 49)
Colorado (Bush 44 Kerry 52)
Michigan (Bush 41 Kerry 55)
Minnesota (Bush 44 Kerry 49)
Pennsylvania (Bush 44 Kerry 50)




http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041024/pl_nm/campaign_poll_sunday_dc&cid=615&ncid=1963&sid=96378800

[iwantmycountryback]

1. That link doesn't work..

But how is Kerry up at all in Colorado, especially by 8? I could see him possibly pulling it out there, but not by that much.

[Quixote1818]

2. Zogby has Kerry way up in Colorado in his last poll

[punpirate]

3. As for NM...

... there's been a veritable direct mail flood being done by the RNC in the last two weeks, and that could have moved the numbers a little. Some of them are, from our perspective, downright outlandish. One is a "message" from Barbara Bush, entitled, "Don't Believe the Democrats' Scare Tactics." (And, yes, that certainly is a severe case of projection.)

As well, the phone messaging has been ratcheted up. I've had twenty messages in ten days, with Repug messages running about five to one over Democratic ones--all from computerized phone banks.

That could have shifted the numbers a bit, too. After all, remember that Gore won the state by only 400 votes or so in 2000. I expect this one to be close, as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Zogby's Numbers Are Cacka...

With inferences or sans inferences...


I'm not going to let the man who had Gore at 46% and Chimpy at 45% on 11/05/00 dictate how I watch this race...

[Rowdyboy]

5. Any suggestions on who was closer to the actual numbers on 11/05/00?

Zogby was right. Everyone else was wrong. Who would you suggest as more accurate?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. His State By State Polling Was Off Big Time In 00

somebody else had a link...

He had Cali going to Gore by one point...


He was the least accurate pollster in 2002


http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html



on edit- if you apply the percentage of 02 races he got wrong to a presidential fifty state race it comes out to fifteen states wrong...
$1,000.00 says I can do a better job on 11/1/04 without polling a single person...

[Rowdyboy]

7. I was so disheartened after 2000, that I really didn't pay much

attention to the 2002 races, so I won't argue with you on that. I still think his numbers in 2000 were better than anyone else's and, personally, put more faith in his numbers today.

Guess polls are just a personal thing. None of them are really worth shit, but we each choose who we choose to listen too.