Hotline: Only 6 States Left As Battlegrounds

[KharmaTrain]

FWIW.. Today's number is Bunnypants 227, Kerry 221...up for Kerry from yesterday (Oregon finally added...see yesterday's post) and the third straight day with no change for his assholiness.

Chuck Todd says that there's only 6 states left in play: Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida & New Mexico.

If that's what he thinks is where the game is down to, I really like our chances.

Cheers!

[fujiyama]

1. Check out my thread

I'm saying it's five (and the rest are probably the same states I have listed). I don't think PA really is in play anymore. I don't want dems to get cocky, but I don't see Bush taking PA.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1117681

[KharmaTrain]

6. I Saw It Just As I Posted This One

GMTA they say...

I like that we're not hearing about states those of us "wired" in here are seeing in play...Colorado, Virginia, Missouri (no we haven't given up there), North Carolina & Kentucky.

Let's not get too complacent...in fact, I'm ready to head to Wisconsin if more foot soldiers are needed...but I've always felt Kerry would hold all the Gore states and an addition of Ohio/Florida would do the trick. That was before we could bank New Hampshire (not many votes, but nice to have a clean sweep of New England) and Nevada (I hear Clark County will go heavy Kerry and so goes the state).

Cheers!

[fujiyama]

8. The new registration numbers

in NV certainly do look good.

I made my guess based on public polls alone...There the numbers don't look as good for Kerry (Bush has had about a 5-7 point lead in several polls).

Of course, polls aren't the be all and end all. In fact, I think it'd be wise to ignore them...but I'll admit I'm hooked!

[KharmaTrain]

12. Remember The Rove Memo

For a long time I didn't subscribe that the polls were skewed as badly as I now firmly believe. It's amazing how blatant the misinformation has been and how little scrutiny our media and these organizations have undergone for all the games they're playing...but that's another topic.

My concern was the Repugnican GOTV efforts were over the past 4 years where ours really didn't start getting into gear until Dr. Dean's candidacy. Now I feel very good that even if Rove did get those 4 million new fundies registered, they're nowhere near as energized as the millions of first time voters we've been getting over the past couple months.

A great indicator of how things are going is to follow where the candidates go. Kerry's attacking along the I-4 Corridor while Bunnypants is trying to hold ground in Colorado and battlegrounds he won. This weekend will be real telling, since if he's not spending 24/7 in either Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida (and not in Orlando or Tampa), he's in major, major trouble.

I'm also not ruling out a surprise in Arizona. There's been a large surge of new voters there, plus the population shift from the Midwest and East to the West is changing the dynamics in those states.

I can see a time soon when you have the East & West Coast, Midwest & Intermountain...not a bad alliance in my book.

Cheers!

[Bombtrack]

16. Kentucky? Are you high?

Colorado I think only matters if the vote splits. That's the real vote there.

If NC and VA are up for Kerry, then he's already won. It's not a determining state.

[KharmaTrain]

19. Bunning Could Be A Major Drag...

Let's see what the polls show there this weekend, but no one's taking the local races on how they'll affect turnout in certain states.

In my area, I know Repugnican turnout will be at an all-time low (Thank-you Alan Keyes) and I see a hidden coattail effect for Feingold in Wisconsin. The trends in of contested Senate races in Pennsylvania, Kentucky & Colorado...where Democrats are trending upward could take away critical votes.

The game boils down to Ohio and/or Florida...win one of those early and we wrap things up by midnight. As long as the 2000 Gore states hold firm (and I don't see one slipping away right now)...along with the pick-up of New Hampshire, an Ohio victory is all that's needed.

Again, I like our chances. Plus check the individual tracking on the electoral-vote map and the trends in Virginia, North Carolina & Colorado are very surprising indeed.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Yes, indeed! I like our chances in these states, too! Thanks for report.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Bookmark This Post....

We take five out of six...


Bush carries FL by a hair but it doesn't matter...

[jmowreader]

7. I think there's a significant chance we'll take Florida

BBV can only do so much.

If Bush can get within three to five percent (MOE in a poll) BBV could pull it his way. But he can't believably flop ten percent from Democrat to Republican, and I think that's the margin we'll see in Florida.

There are five key constituencies in Florida--farmers, tourist-business operators, military, seniors and Cubans. He's managed to piss off the seniors and the Cubans. The military is an open question, and tourism is economy-dependent--you don't take your annual trip to Orlando if you can't afford the gas or your job's been outsourced. Which means he's got the ag people (maybe), but they're not the majority bloc anymore.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Live In Florida....

To win Florida a Dem needs to win south Florida 2-1 to offest the 3-1 loss he will take in north Florida and split Central Florida... So far it looks like Bush is winning Central Florida, 55-45...

[fujiyama]

13. Does the I-4 corridor

go through central Florida? Some poll had Bush up by only 2-3 points in that region.

Most polls show it be very close - showing either candidate to be up by a point or two.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I-4 Corridor

I-4 goes from Tampa to Daytona Beach, the heart of Central Florida....


If Kerry is down by 2-3 in the 1-4 Corridor he prolly wins the state... Mason Dixon has him down ten... We'll see....

[blondeatlast]

15. Arizona =Blue. As long as you're bookmarking it anyway.

I'm telling you.

We have 10 EV.

If anyone wants to help, I'll be happy to give you contact info; we're glad to have you, and the weather should be SPECTACULAR next weekend (we have rain this weekend, which should make it near perfect next).

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Pennsylvania is decisively in the Kerry column now

Most of the polls show a 5-10% lead now. Add to that Joe Hoeffel closing the gap with Arlen Specter, and Pennsylvania is going to be causing a few Republican nightmares in the near future.

Of the remaining five states in the list, I think we'll pick up 4 or all of them. Most of the battlegrounds that were trending Republican have already gone Republican.

--bkl

[shoelace414]

5. that just means

I get to see MORE political commercials and get more phone calls.

November 3rd can't come soon enough.

[blondeatlast]

17. I can't help you about the phone, but turn off your TV or watch

nothing but Sundance Channel.

Last night I got TWELVE text messages to vote on my cell phone.

[DemocracyInaction]

10. That WJ link to electoral map posted in other threads here

They have Iowa, Wisconsin and PA in our column and I think by a decent lead. Yes, Ohio and Florida are still Bush and around a 3 point lead. BUT, it's some of those other red states like TN, AR, MO that are really close. I believe, without checking, that MO is like a 1 point lead for Bush. Soooooo, I don't know how he can think that only those few states are in play and ones that have a lot more point spread for Kerry than these several red states. He's pretty good; so I guess it's just what data they are getting from what polls because all these states are just all over the place it seems.

[blondeatlast]

11. Arizona IS in play, I'm telling you.

If you want to help and enjoy some beautiful weather too, come see us.

We'll be glad to have you.

All it takes is to get the Dems we have out there to vote.

[KharmaTrain]

14. I Posted Elsewhere I Thought The State Was In Play

And I'll be down for Spring Training...in the meantime, let us know if there's a race you need help with.

Cheers!

[blondeatlast]

18. Stu Starky, Stu Starky, Stu Starky vs. McCain.

Did I mention Stu Starky?!

If he can't win, we want it UNCOMFORTABLY close.

Phone banking is appreciated!

[KharmaTrain]

20. My Accountant Hates Me

He's been matching me on contributions...and I just gave $100 to the Morrison campaign to debug Sugarland, Texas. I'd sure like to see an upset of McCain...even better, what'll it take to get rid of that sleeze Kyl?

[blondeatlast]

21. Pretty much a miracle this year, since he isn't up!

But if AZ goes blue, I think it's possible, though not likely.