Zogby: Bush and Kerry Still in Dead Heat Today, 10/20/04

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-campaign-poll-wednesday.html?pagewanted=print&position=

Reuters Poll: Bush and Kerry Still in Dead Heat
By REUTERS

Filed at 7:01 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry remain tied for the third consecutive day in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Less than two weeks before the Nov. 2 election, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 46 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll. They were tied at 45 percent the previous two days.

About 6 percent of likely voters are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator, who clashed on Tuesday over Kerry's claims that Bush wants to privatize the Social Security retirement system. Bush accused Kerry of ``scare tactics.''

<>The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 46 percent and the number who wanted someone new was 50 percent. Only 44 percent rated Bush's presidential performance as excellent or good, while 55 percent said it was fair or poor.

Kerry led 52 percent to 38 percent among newly registered voters, an unpredictable swing population that could become a huge factor if they vote in large numbers.

<>The poll of 1,213 likely voters was taken Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

[Jack Rabbit]

1. Except for the dead heat, these are very encouraging figures

Of course, Kerry could be doing worse than a dead heat, so that's not entirely bad.

Nevertheless, satisfaction with Bush is down, so undecideds are less likely to give him the benefit of the doubt. New voters heavily favor Kerry, so polls that attempt to weight the race by estimating Republican turnout will be wrong (Dr. Gallup must be turning over in his grave).

The pattern appears to be one similar to 1980. No matter what one thought of Reagan, the fact is that whatever Carter was doing wasn't working; so, in the end, undecideds and fence-sitters voted for Reagan. One could easily substitute Kerry for Reagan and Bush for Carter in that pattern.

We'll see on November 2.

[usregimechange]

2. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee nt