Reuters: Kerry has 13 Point Lead in Battleground States

[DemocracyInaction]

I have to ask about this because it's quite confusing. Read and re-read article. It reports about the campaigns going to Florida where they say it's tied 48-48. It says Bush has a couple point lead nationwide among Likely voters. It then says, though, that Kerry is carrying a commanding lead of 13 points in the battleground states.

Now, obviously, Bush's couple point lead nationwide doesn't translate into a win since it depends on what states those percentages fall (example: Bush winning Texas by 99% rather than 90% makes no difference). But this shrinking the map to just the battleground states and saying Kerry has a 13 point lead also is basically meaningless since it depends on exactly which states he carries. Obviously we have seen no poll where Kerry is carrying a battleground by 13 points or it wouldn't be a battleground state. Therefore, I cannot understand why they have such a poll but more importantly I just can't quite glean from this exactly what it all indicates. Does it imply that there is much more hidden strength in these states for Kerry than Bush? What is your take on it and why do they have such a poll???? Edit: by the way they refer to this as based on a nunmber of surveyS (plural--not just one poll).

[fertilizeonarbusto]

1. I think

your "hidden strength" notion is dead-on.

[detroit]

2. Please post link (n/t)

[WI_DEM]

3. do you have a link?

[DemocracyInaction]

5. No link - I get it off my satelite TV

but I imagine it's out there somewhere in computerland.

[diplomats]

4. Could you provide a link?

That's probably in reference to yesterday's Zogby tracking poll, that had Bush up 2. Today, it's tied.

[Doosh]

6. no wonder Bush had an emergency strategy meeting yesterday

[CatWoman]

14. *ahem*

that's "strategerie" meeting :D

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Kerry efforts have been focused in the battlegrounds

notably, WI, PA, OH, and FL. Iowa too but I have never seen it as a risk.
There are also heavy ground games in NV, AZ, MO, and anywhere else we have a chance, such as VA, and NC.

[dave502d]

9. So if this true than what dose Bush do.

Hit CA with something.

[belle]

15. Just got an email from Kerry HQ saying that CO is back in focus for them

too.

[mzmolly]

8. shhhh, keep them focused on the Gallup national polls.

;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It Is Virtually Impossible To Lose Win The Electoral College

but lose the popular vote by a significant margin...

[MidwestTransplant]

13. That's what Charlie Cook said

He said a couple of points pop vote win will make it impossible to loose the electoral vote.

[Momof1]

11. Here is a link, it doesn't say 13 pts, but 10 pts.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2004/10/17/uselexn041017.html

Snip:
And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states.


Is this the poll you were talking about?:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Saw That... It Strikes Me As Odd And Incongruous (nt)

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

16. Well, here's how I see it...

* may have, say, 90% of the votes in Alabama and 10% of the votes in NY. If this were the case, then a national poll (assuming the U.S. were made up of only Alabama and NY) would show a tie. But we know that in the end, the electoral college votes count. So, even if the national poll was a tie, Kerry would win the Electoral College and thus the presidency by winning in the state with more electoral college voters (NY).

So, if a poll says Kerry has a lead in the battleground states but the national picture still leads to a tie, then I may assume that * is getting a large percentage in Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, the Dakotas and a smaller percentage in other states, while Kerry is getting the rest. In this scenario, then, Kerry is heavily favored, even with a tie, if the poll is accurate in stating that Kerry has an advantage in battleground states, because of the electoral college votes.

Do I make any sense?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Yes And No...

It is theoretically possible to win the Electoral College with an absurdly low percentage of the popular vote but it is not within the realm of probable outcomes...

[TruthWins]

18. Good Point, Wouldn't you have to be leading by 10% in at least one

battleground state to have a 10% lead in the battlegrounds? That's just basic math.

I guess it depends on what they consider battlegrounds. New Jersey, Oregon & Michigan are sometimes considered battlegrounds, but I think they'll go havily Kerry this time. Still, though, is Kerry leading by 10% in ANY of those states?